WAR AND POPULATION.
LAST week Sir Bernard Mallet, the Registrar-General of Births and Deaths for England and Wales, delivered to the Royal Statistical Society as his presidential address a most interesting and valuable paper on " Vital Statistics as Affected by the War." It is to be hoped that this paper will be published without much delay in a convenient form, for it dissipates manT popular delusions. Many people in this country have been raising their voices and wringing their hands
over our vital statistics, and foretelling that, whatever may be the result of the war, Great Britain will be bound to go down before the ever-growing population of the German 'Empire. Sir Bernard Mallet shows that since the war began the popula- tion of the United Kingdom has increased by excess of birthi over deaths to such an extent as more than to counterbalance the whole of the losses of our armies in the field. On the other hand, the civil population of the Central Empires has steadily, and even rapidly, declined since the war began, and he estimates that this loss, added to the loss by deaths in the field, has reduced the total population of the Central Empires by at least four millions. That is a very reassuring fact when we are contrasting our own population with that of our present enemies. Let us deal first of all with the figures affecting our own country. The question most discussed is that of the birth- rate. On few questions do people constantly speak with more looseness than the subject of birth-rates. It is a common practice to take the year 1876, when the birth- rate in England and Wales was the highest recorded, as a starting-point, and to regard any falling off from that year as heralding a national disaster. But there is nothing sacred about the year 1878 or about the birth-rate of that year. It would be quite as legitimate to argue that we should take some earlier and lower rate as the standard, or alternatively that we ought to aspire to a much higher rate. A further blunder commonly committed is to forget that the decisive question is not the rate of increase but the amount of increase. It is sufficient to point out that a rate of twenty per thousand on a population of twenty millions only gives the same amount of increase as a rate of ten per thousand on forty millions. A third point almost invanably overlooked is the close connexion between birth-rates and infantile death- rates. What really matters is not so much the number of children born into the world, though that of course does matter a great deal, as the number who grow up. All these points are inferentially implied in Sir Bernard Mallet's interesting analysis of recorded facts. He begins by dealing with marriage-rates, and shows the direct effect of the war, and especially of separation allowances, upon the number of marriages. The figures are very striking. The average annual number of marriages in England and Wales for the years 1909-13 was, in round figures, 275,000. In 1914 this rose to 294,000 ; in 1915 to 361,000 ; in 1916 it fell again to 280,000. It is also to be noted that during the first half of 1917 the number of marriages fell appreciably as compared with the corresppnding period in each of the three preceding years, and as compared with the average for 1909-13. Presumably this last fact means that, owing to the absence of such a large pro- portion of the manhood of the country, marriages had become impossible. Sir Bernard Mallet sums up these figures by stating that, in round numbers, 200,000 people were married in England and Wales between August, 1914, and June, 1917, who in the ordinary course of events would not have been married. In Scotland the corresponding figure was 8,000 ; in Ireland there was no material change.
In contrast with the remarkable increase of marriages in the year 1915, there was a very considerable decrease in births in 1916, and again in 1917. The births in England and Wales in 1916 showed a drop of nearly 11 per cent. as compared with 1913. Still more striking is the fact that In the first quarter of 1917 the births dropped over 17 per cent. as compared with the corresponding period of 1913 ; in the second quarter nearly 24 per cent. ; and in the third quarter just under 28 per cent. Incidentally Sir Bernard Mallet shows that the some- what sensational talk which was common in the earlier days of the war about illegitimate births was entirely unfounded. " The war has produced practically no effect upon our figures of illegitimate births." The rate of illegitimacy, as compared with the number of unmarried and widowed females between fifteen and forty-five, was in 1916 the lowest on record, and in 1916 it was lower than in either 1913 or 1914.
Turning next to the crucial question of survival, we find that the figures are most satisfactory, especially compared with those of Germany. Since the war began there has been a remarkable drop in infantile mortality in all parts of the United Kingdom. The rate per thousand fell in England from 108 in 1913 to 91 in 1916 ; In Scotland from 110 to 97 ; in Ireland, which has long had a compara- tively low rate of infantile mortality, the rate dropped from 97 to 83. These figures show that concurrently with the decline in the birth-rate there has been a decline in the death- rate. That concurrence may be a coincidence or an effect. It is not due to increased municipal or State activities in the way of supervising early child life, for the same concurrence is found unfailingly in other countries. Sir Bernard Mallet brings out the following facts :— "In Germany between 1900 and 1913 the birth-rate declined by 17 per cont., the infantile mortality by 18 per cent.; in England and Wales in the same period the birth-rate fell by 11 per cont., the infantile mortality by 18 per cent. ; in Denmark the fall in the birth-rate was 11 per cont., in the infantile mortality 14 per cent. ; in Norway the birth-rate fell 5 per cent., infant mortality 0 per cent. ; in Sweden the birth-rate declined 10 per cent., infant mortality 13 per cent."
These figures suggest a causal connexion between a low birth-rate and a low rate of infantile mortality. But several causes have helped since the war began to reduce the general rate of infant mortality. Sir Bernard Mallet specially directs attention to the restriction of the sale of alcoholic liquors. He shows how before the war one of the regular and one of the ugliest features of our social life was the number of deaths of infants recorded as due to suffocation. They had been over- laid by their parents in bed. The number recorded on Sundays was always very much higher than on any other day in the week, the inference being that Saturday night's drinking meant the suffocation of the baby in bed before Sunday morning. Since the sale of alcoholic liquors was restricted there has been an appreciable decline in the infantile mortality attributed to this cause, and especially in the number of infant deaths recorded on Sundays. The net result of all causes affecting births and deaths is that during the two years 1915-16 and the first half of 1917 the excess of births over deaths in England and Wales was 590,000, in Scotland 83,000, and in Ireland 41,000, making a total for the United Kingdom of 714,000. If we add the increase recorded front August to December, 1914, this total comes to web over 900,000—a figure which far exceeds the military and naval losses. So that since the war began there has been a considerable net addition to the population of the United Kingdom.
In contrast with this satisfactory result, there has been a heavy decrease in the population of Germany and Austria. Sir Bernard Mallet obtains his figures for Germany from the weekly publications of the German Imperial Office, and those for Hungary from an article in the Pesti Naplo based on the official publications of the Hungarian Statistical Department. The first fact brought out as regards the Central Powers is that their marriage-rates have declined heavily during the war. Presumably there was no factor like the separation allowances in this country to act as a stimulus to increased marriages, while the rapid mobilization of the armies rendered marriage impossible for a large part of the population.
Coming to the question of births in Germany, Sir Bernard Mallet gives the figures for all towns with over fifteen thousand inhabitants. In these towns the births 'show a progressive decrease year by year as compared with 1913. Above it was stated that the birth-rate in England and Wales declined in the third quarter of 1917 by 28 per cent. as compared with the corresponding quarter in 1913. German figures for the Sept- ember quarter are not yet available, but the figures for the March qtiarter show a decline of 43.8 per cent. as compared with 1913, and for the June quarter a decline of 48 per cent. Passing to Hungary, the corresponding figures are 531 per cent.. and 53.6 per cent. Thus the decline on the birth-rate in Germany and Hungary during the war is verging upon twice as much as the decline in England and Wales. It may be added that the German birth-rate had been rapidly declining before the war, so that the above figures giving the decline as com- pared with 1913 point to a very much heavier rate of decline as compared with earlier years.
It is true that in Germany, as in England and Wales, the decline in the birth-rate has been accompanied by a decline in the infantile mortality rate. Nevertheless the infantile mor- tality rate in Germany remains enormously higher than in any part. of the United Kingdom. In 1916 the rate in Germany was 151 per thousand, as compared with 91 in England and Wales, 971 in Scotland, and 83.4 in Ireland. This high figure prevails in Germany, as Sir Bernard Mallet points out, in spite of all the efforts made by the municipalities to preserve infant life. Cash bonuses are given to mothers who breast-nurse their infants and a preferential milk supply is furnished ; but the infants continue to die. In some German towns in the course of the present year the infantile mortality has reached enormous figures, especially in July and August. In Hallo the rate for these two months was 345 per thousand ; in Erfurt 341; in Cologne 283 ; in Nuremberg 275. Possibly this heavy rate of infantile mortality for the current year in German towns is in part due to the hard conditions of life imposed upon the whole German population by the British blockade.
Summing up the Whole position, it may safely be said that we can from our minds, for the-present at any rate, all idea of a failure in reproductiveness so far as the United Kingdom is concerned. The only important point on which to lay stress is the growing excess of females over males, especially in England and Wales. That is a problem for which apparently there is no solution except female emigration. More generally it may be said that we must continue to look more and more to the Overseas Dominions as an outlet for the still growing population of the British Isles.
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