TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE CRISIS IN THE LIBERAL PARTY. THE process of following the crisis in the Liberal party in detail is by no means an easy one. No sooner does a plain issue appear to have been arrived at than a con- jurer's hat is placed over it, and then, heo, presto ! the hat is lifted and the plain issue disappears, and tile public are made to admit that, after all, there is nothing under the hat. Last week Lord Rosebery published a letter which to all appearance meant a "definite separation" between Lord Rosebery and his friends and Sir Henry Campbell- Bannerman and his followers. On Thursday, however, was published the manifesto of the new Liberal League, of which Lord Rosebery is the accepted chief and leader, in which not only is there no trace of separation, but a definite assurance that Lord Rosebery and his friends- i.e., "those who adhere to the Chesterfield policy "—have decided "that they have no intention of severing them- selves from the Liberal party, but, on the contrary, intend to act with the rest of the Liberal Opposition on the lines of that policy." For the purposes of organisation and development on those lines "an association, under the name of the Liberal League, has been formed. Its first president is Lord Rosebery, and its first vice-presidents are Mr. Asquith, Sir Henry Fowler, and Sir Edward Grey." In other words, the great conjurer asks us with a smile : You are certain now, aren't you, that I definitely separated the orange before I put it under the hat ? You are sure of that ? Now, see, I lift the hat. Why, what's here ? A united orange ! No separation whatever. You must have been quite mistaken, you see, when you thought I separated it. You should really watch me more carefully before you are so positive as to what I am doing. Very pleased to have interested you, gentlemen. It is all sleight-of-hand, and I'm sure the old lady from whom I borrowed the orange before I cut it—I mean before you made your mis- take in thinking I divided it, will find it as good as ever.' Can we blame the dazzled audience after so splendid. a display of sleight-of-hand and sleight-of-tongue if they still really are not sure whether the orange was or was not cut, or if there was any orange at all, or what it all means ? Unquestionably the orange was definitely separated. And yet there it is apparently as whole as ever. Did he really not cut it after all? or did he cut it and only mend it again very cleverly ? and is there a danger of another split where he cut it ? or has the old lady got her orange back quite uninjured?
So argues the ordinary man in the audience. Those, however, who are behind the scenes and profess to have seen the trick at close quarters assure us that it is all right, and that there really was no separa- tion. For example, the Daily Chronicle—a paper whose chief leading articles it is an open secret are written by one of our ablest living publicists—tells us with the emphasis of conviction that there was no separation, and that the Liberal party is still an undivided entity. Let us assume that this is so, that the Liberal party remains unsplit, and that there are merely a few differences of opinion among its members in regard to such trifling matters as Home-rule, the "methods of barbarism," and the future of the Empire; and, finally, that though there are within the party two sets of leaders, each disap- proving very strongly of the views of the other, the essentials of unity are maintained intact. Will it be possible for a party to do the work of an Opposition on these lines ? Time will show; but we are bound to say that it seems to us somewhat unlikely. We cannot help thinking that ultimately the Liberal party—i.e., the rank-and-file—will have to decide definitely, if not on the matter of policy, at least on that of leadership. If we may use a metaphor— and it really seems absolutely impossible when dealing with the crisis in the Liberal party for any one to avoid the use of metaphor—the Liberal party is like the tourist who is pursued by two carriages in some foreign watering place, each urging him to get in. The tourist may for a time wall: along unable to decide owing to the competitive clamour. But ultimately he makes up his mind one way or the other. And, as a rule, he decides which carriage to take by noting which has the better horses and the better driver. We expect that after its exasperation and be- wilderment at being so furiously pestered ' by two fighting coachmen the Liberal party will do the same. But if the decision is to go in favour of the better horses and the better driver, which way will it go ? As our readers know, we do not feel any very great confidence in Lord Rosebery's coachmanship, and regard him rather as skilful in describing the way and. enlarging on its beauties than in handling the reins. At the same time, we are bound to admit that there are plenty of men of judgment who believe strongly in his powers as a driver.. Again, if he is contrasted with Sir Henry .Campbell-Bannerman, even those who have least trust in Lord Rosebery's political stability cannot but admit that he is the better man for the box-seat. When it comes to a question of teams there is, however, no comparison. Mr. Asquith, Sir Henry Fowler, and Sir Edward Grey are . not merely the ablest members of the Liberal party, they are each in his own way among the ablest and most responsible of British statesmen. For character and ability they are second to none in either the Unionist or the Liberal camp. If then, which heaven forbid., the present writer were a balancing Liberal, he would choose tie( Rosebery carriage. His confidence in the team wcrad balance his distrust of the driver's steadiness and persistency of purpose.
To drop our metaphor, we incline to think that what will happen will be that there will for some time be a sort of free competition in the work of opposi- tion in the House of Commons, but that in the end. the best men will win. Mr. Asquith, Sir Henry Fowler, and. Sir Edward. Grey will oppose the Government so ably, and yet with so obviously a patriotic intent, that the mass of the party will gradually range themselves behind. them. A sort of official homage may be paid to the nominal leader from time to time, but all the best energies of the Oppo- sition will go to support Mr. Asquith and his colleagues. Gradually they will stand. out as the real leaders of the Opposition. At first an attempt to hinder them may be made by the Campbell-Bannermanites, but as soon as they "show real sport" and give the Opposition " blood " we may feel certain that the attractive force always exercised. by real and. living opposition will assert itself, and that the party as a whole will rally behind them. Even the most rabid of Radicals will sink their own feelings and join the attack if they see the Government is being seriously tackled. When once a leader can say with the true leader's voice, 'Neiver mind • about our differences. We all want to storm the fort, so follow me ! ' he is certain to carry with him all the elements of opposition. We do not, of course, say that Mr. Asquith if he leads in the Commons, as we presume he will, will be able at once to rally the Opposition behind. him ; but we do not see why he should not accomplish the task after a year of steady opposition.
There is only one consideration which makes us doubt the soundness of the view we have just put forward, and. leads us to wonder whether after all the new movement may not collapse. That is the consideration,—Will Lord Rosebery "stick it out," or will he not, like the hero in "The Princess," fall into the dim and dreamy moods of a shadow world, and, forgetting all his strong and. keen resolves, somehow contrive to take up once more the attitude of irresolution and suspicion, which looks like the attitude of the sphinx, but is that of the weathercock ? When we look back at Lord Rosebery's past career and mark its strange vicissi- tudes, his changes of policy and. infirmity of purpose, and especially when we note the way in which during the past two years he has coquetted with varying and antagonistic principles, the tremendous words with which "Junius" up- braided the uncertainties of another statesman rise perforce to our mind. "Junius," alter analysing changes of political purpose in the subject of his satire, exclaims : "My Lord, is this the wisdom of a great statesman, or the ominous oscillation of a pendulum ? " We cannot suppress a like question. If Lord Rosebery's actions, though obscure in the past, have in reality only been guided by a deliberate and far-sighted wisdom, then his lieutenants will be safe in their organisation of the forces of Opposition on• a sound and practicable basis. If, on the other hand, they are the ominous oscillations of a mind tuned by nature to change and not to steady and consistent endeavour, his followers will toil in vain. The tide ebbing and flowing with the moon of Lord Rosebery's mind will sweep all their works away. Which will prove the true view we shall not attempt to prophesy. Time will show. All we can say is that we trust in the interest of the country that we shall once more obtain a homogeneous and independent Opposition.
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