TOPICS OF THE DAY.
AUSTRIA AND RUSSIA.
IF the Bulgarians are really determined to win their independence, they should be able to breathe now. They are not out of the wood, and may still have to fight for their lives ; but the possibility of success is no longer absent. They have secured friends. The speech of the Austrian Chancellor, Count Kalnoky, followed as it was by the debates in the Hungarian Delegations, and accompanied as it was by the Emperor's personal explanations to the Hungarian leaders, leaves little doubt as to the position of the Austrian Monarchy. The Emperor Francis Joseph, who for European purposes is that Monarchy, has obtained the guarantee he desired ; he can fight a campaign with limited liability, and be is ready therefore, if it is necessary, to contend with Russia. It is the part of Count Kalnoky's speech which describes the position assumed by Germany which is really important. With unmistakable clearness, and a sense of dignity sometimes wanting to Austrian states- men, who are often more worried by the nationalities within the Empire than other statesmen are by contending parties, Count Kalnoky stated that neither Germany nor Austria were bound to support each other in all contingencies. Each Empire had separate interests, which each must pursue or defend as she best could without assistance, but each was determined that the other should remain a strong first-class Power. Bulgaria was no interest of Germany, and Austria must take her own course, but she would take it, never- theless, sheltered by the German alliance. " We cannot imagine a combination of circumstances in Europe which would allow Germany to hold her present position unless she had Austria-Hungary by her side, and we, for our parts, must desire that Germany shall stand by us as strong as she is now." Words like these are not spoken in Europe, by men in Count Kalnoky's position, without deliberation and concert ; and they mean that though Austria must fight alone, she is guaranteed, if she fights and loses, against being compelled to make fatal terms of peace. Thus emboldened, the Austrian Emperor, who, it must be remembered, has had a strange history, being defeated in succession by Hungary, by France, and by Prussia, yet always emerging with un- diminished resources—for Bosnia and the German alliance are good compensations for Italy—has, through Count Kalnoky, announced his resolution. The internal organisation of Bulgaria does not concern him much. There may be as much Russian influence there as Russia can obtain by diplo- matic pressure,—which will not be much if her agents are like General Kaulbars, " who has done nothing of what a diplo- matist is generally expected to do, and whose mission is but an incident which will pass away, and leave not a trace behind." But it does concern him that Bulgaria should be autonomous ; and if, therefore, there should be a Russian Commissary sent to Sofia, or still more, a Russian occupation of Bulgaria, Austria-Hungary will at once and openly resist. England sympathises, and Italy still more decidedly ; and Russia therefore must, Count Kalnoky says, confine herself to diplomatic pressure.
There is no reason whatever to believe that these words, which have been accepted in Berlin as accurately explaining the situation, are in any way insincere. They are in precise accord with the interests not only of the dual Empire, but of the Hapsburg family, who do not want the Russians in the only territory within which they can hope to expand either their possessions or their influence. The words are not annoying to the Austrians, who desire above all things to keep the German alliance perfect, yet in reserve ; and they soothe away the Magyar dread lest the great Slavic wave should flow over them unresisted. The Emperor, who rules so many Slays, is afraid of staking his whole future in one grand war, but he is exasperated at the Russian advance ; he fears, and with reason, not only for Bulgaria, but for Roumania and Servia- which, according to a " Treaty " produced by Count Engem Zichy in the debate, is assigned by Russia to the reigning family of Montenegro—and being guaranteed by Germany against total defeat, he is willing to run the risk of armed resistance. With that support the Bulgarian Regents, who have got rid of their Russianising colleague, Karaveloff, should be masters in their own house. Russia cannot coerce them without occupying, and Russia cannot occupy without a great war. They can therefore disregard General Kaulbars, replying to his absurd requests with polite refusals ; can insist on finding a
Prince whom Europe will accept, or waiting until they do ; and meanwhile can use their unbroken authority with the Army to bring all Intenders, whether protected by Russia or not, before a just, but very expeditious tribunal. So long as the people are with them, the Czar cannot by intrigue and gold alone provoke a revolution ; Turkey is evidently not going to stir ; and the appearance of Russian forces off Varna would be the signal for Austrian interference. If they had but Prince Alexander at their head, they would be in- dependent ; and even as it is, they enjoy a position analogous to that of the Swiss statesmen, who might be crushed in an hour, but who have been unmolested for seventy years, sheltered under the jealousies and fears of the mightier Powers around. The Regents are not perfectly safe, for Alexander III. may stake all to win his contest with them, and is urged to do it by great forces within his Empire itself ; but they are as safe as the rulers of a little State lying right in the path of a great one can ever hope to be.
Whether the Regents will display the necessary nerve and persistence, we have no means of knowing. One set of observers think the country entirely united, the Army loyal, and the Regency resolved not to fail, even if it has, as M. Stam- bouloff said a few weeks since, " to adopt desperate resolu- tions,"—that is, to fight Russia and take the consequences. Another set perceive evidence that the Bulgarians are growing weary ; detect a longing for a respite from anxiety, even if it is secured by a Russian Commissary; and are doubtful whether the charm of the great Slav Empire does not impress the peasantry—who think themselves Slav, and belong, at all events, to the Orthodox Church—a little too deeply. The evidence is not yet clear, for the Regents certainly bear much insult, and the Bulgarians of Macedonia, who ought to sympathise with their kinsfolk, are distinctly on the Russian side, even risking their lives in conspiracies at General Kaulbars's bidding ; but, on the whole, we incline to the former opinion. The Bulgarians are as stubborn as Turks, and know how to wait. The people of South Bulgaria are furiously anti-Russian, so furiously that they embarrass the Regents by open demonstrations. The Army dreads the despotism of the Russian officers, who would arrive upon the faintest sign of military sub- mission. Above all, the Bulgarians, if inclined to sub- mit, would have submitted before, when they seemed deserted, and when they could have made their own terms with their powerful antagonist, who at one moment would have granted anything to secure the submission of the Principality. It seems reasonable to suppose that they will hold out, despite the pressing want of money, which harasses the Government every day ; and if they hold out, there is no reason now why they should not succeed. They will obtain a Prince in the end, and Russia can no better endure a long-protracted strain, and doubt whether there will be war or not, than Austria can. The Empire and the Emperor have their own difficulties ; and though finance does not embarrass Russian action as Western Europe believes it to do, still a tension prolonged for months throws all Russian commerce out of gear. The one quality required of Bulgarians now is obstinacy, obstinacy as of mules ; and if that quality is not in them, then their character has been mis- read, not only by their European friends, who are as warm about them as they once were about Italy, but by their old Turkish masters, who, whenever they revolted, despaired of coercion, and killed the revolters out.
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