NORTHERN IRELAND
Stand up the hardliners
MARTIN WALLACE
Belfast—There was never any real doubt that the Unionist government wand receive its vote of confidence at Stormont on Wednesday. All that was in question was whether any Unionist backbenchers would join the three dissidents who were committed to withholding support from the government and its 'current realistic and responsible policies' and as the debate began there were only two other doubtfuls. The automatic penalty, even for abstention, is expulsion from the parliamentary party.
The rebels will not be expelled from the party as a whole, of course, unless their local associations act against them, which is most unlikely. Mr Craig will be able to stump the country, as he did when the former Captain O'Neill dismissed him as Minister of Home Affairs, complaining of weak government. He. Mr Harry West, and Dr Norman Laird will be able to continue their battle within the Ulster Unionist Council and its standing committee. It was when Captain O'Neill faced defeat at these levels—not at Stormont that he resigned the premiership. Captain O'Neill. of course, received a number of votes of confidence. The need he felt for them: merely underlined the un- certainty of his position, and some observers think that Major Chichester-Clark is on the same slippery slope. Possibly he is. but it is much too soon to say that he is losing his grip: there are a number of significant differences from the last days of the O'Neill era.
A bas;c one is the difference between the personalities of the two Prime Ministers. O'Neill made many enemies during his term of office, not merely because of his liberalism but because of his self-centred style of government. He made the mistake of criticis- ing previous Unionist administrations in rather contemptuous terms, and unwisely cultivated the image of a far-sighted reformer surrounded by bigots. A vote of confidence, however worded, was essentially a vote for or against Captain O'Neill. Major Chichester-Clark has now restored cabinet government --albeit with a degree of oversight from Great Britain that was unknown in Captain O'Neill's day—so that there is a new cohesion in the ad- ministration. A vote of confidence in the government is exactly what it says. Moreover, it is a government which includes three members of the 'Portadown parliament' whose opposition to Captain O'Neill led to the 1969 general election. Ma- jor Chichester-Clark may be a less gifted and less aware politician than his predecessor, and certainly he takes less pleasure in holding office: but his shortcomings are not always a disadvantage.
Moreover, l7Oistiot 1969.'The Unionist party passed through an unprecedented internal upheaval in ridding itself of one Premier. Many people doubt if the party could survive another crisis of this kind, so there is possibly some pressure to make the best of the present situation. There is also th6 fear that a political crisis could heighten tension in the streets, and that a point might be reached where the British government decided that even more direct intervention was necessary—in other words, that the Northern Ireland Parliament should be abolished.
Why, then, was the government forced to ask the House of Commons for a vote of confidence? In general terms, the answer is that Captain O'Neill's resignation did not solve the Unionist party's problems, and there is still a deep division between the moderate wing of the party and the hardliners. The labels can be misleading—as are terms like liberal, extremist, backwoodsmen and others in common use—but the present division is between those who accept that the government must live up to the bargain it made with Mr Callaghan last year, and those who want to water down the reforms in spite of the exists ence of that bargain.
In specific terms, the government is demanding support for the reorganisation of the police forces, the setting-up of a central authority to control all public housing, and the review of local government that is already under way. The Police Bill has now passed through the Commons, but only after the defeat or withdrawal of a number of amendments tabled by right-wing Unionists. A small number of Unionists did vote against the government, and some moderates felt that Major Chichester-Clark should have expelled them at that point. But there was no three-line whip out, and he has chosen to force them to declare themselves on a vote of confidence.
This is a new tactic. Captain O'Neill fought out his battles within the confines of the parliamentary party, where he could not
make a vote against him cause for disciplinary action. Major Chichester-Clark is open to the charge that he is trying to stifle criticism in a way which is foreign to the Unionist party, which has traditionally been open to 'all shades of loyalist opinion'. Two weeks ago the Prime Minister told the Ulster Unionist Council that the party must choose between 'sensible, realistic and moderate government' and 'the policies of the strong arm and the jackboot which could only lead in time to a sectarian bloodbath'. But the motion of confidence—the ultimatum to the right wing—was announced just after a meeting apparently aimed at finding a modus vivendi within the party. Mr West later ac-
cused the Prime Minister of trying to stifle criticism by using the big stick.
Major Chichester-Clark has told the Ulster Unionist Council he will no longer tolerate those who 'want to have the luxury of remaining under the party umbrella and yet continuing to fight against accepted policies'. His critics would presumably ques- tion whether the policies on housing and local government really have been accepted by the party. Perhaps they have been in a technical sense, but there is no doubt that many Unionists feel that the reforms have been railroaded through without adequate discussion at various levels of the party. There is no doubt, either, that many party workers are unhappy about the prospect of a central housing authority (almost certainly a nominated body, with substantial Catholic representation) taking over the allocation of houses. Housing has been an important weapon in maintaining the Protestants' political ascendancy in most local councils, and hundreds of Unionist councillors enjoy their individual modicum of power.
The impartial review body which is look- ing at other aspects of local govermitent will probably not report before May, but it may well recommend (as the government would like) further centralisation. It it all right to leave bins and street lighting to elective bodies, but the shortcomings of democracy are only too obvious in more sensitive areas of administration. Government spokesmen are naturally emphasising that nothing has actually been decided, apart from the com- mitment to a central housing authority, and that whatever form of local government emerges it will not be a soulless bureaucracy. But those who remember assurances that the B Specials would not be disbanded are naturally sceptical.
There could hardly be a better issue for the right wing to take a stand on than this—even a stand doomed to failure. Mr Craig has been calling for a stronger govern- ment more representative of rank and file Unionist opinion, but he has probably ad- mitted to himself that he cannot hope for office under Major Chichester-Clark. Hence it is not surprising that he is willing to have the whip withdrawn, and some observers believe that he deliberately manoeuvred himself into this position. His political hopes must now rest in a right-wing takeover, and to achieve this he probably needs to keep the political situation on the boil until Unionist associations come to choose their candidates for the next general election. The government's victory in this week's debate on the motion of confidence marks the beginning of a battle, not the end of one.
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