SENOR ZORRILLA'S PROGRAMME AND PROSPECTS.
THE Spanish Premier must be an exceedingly wise or an exceedingly rash man to come before the Cortes with the enormous programme announced in the Royal Speech on Sunday last, and, on the whole, we are inclined to believe that the balance of evidence is decidedly in favour of his prudence. At the same time, the mere enumeration of the measures which Senor Zorrilla has promised to the country is calculated to startle politicians accustomed to the leisurely proceedings and less pressing necessities of a more northern clime. In the first place, accounts are to be settled with the Pope, and Prince Bismarck could hardly improve upon the language in which King Amadeo speaks of the " firm decision " of his Government " to live in accordance with the facts and the ideas of our time, and to main- tain the decrees legally established by the will of the nation." If this does not mean that the Spanish clergy are going to be brought very sharply to book for their scant affection towards the new order of affairs, we are mis- taken. Then the Government is to tell " the whole truth " on the different Budgets, so that we may expect at least one novelty from Senor Zorrilla's Administration, the obligation not to tell the whole truth having been religiously observed by the preceding run of Spanish Ministries. The Radical chief has always, however, been distinguished for a good repu- tation in financial affairs, and the foreign creditor remembers with satisfaction that it was the Radical party, consisting of such men as Moret y Prendergast and King Gomez, which manfully stood out against the arbitrary taxation of the ex ternal debt proposed by the Sagaatist-Unionists and supported even by such respectable papers as the Epoca last year. Then come a string of the most sweeping modifications in the present system of things,—the abolition of the military con- scription, the establishment of universal military service, the abolition of the maritime conscription, the reorganisation of the Navy, the replenishment of the fortresses and arsenals, the transformation of the judiciary and the introduction of trial by jury, the regulation of the public instruction, &c. The Carlist insurrection is represented as being almost extinct, and though there may be some optimist poetry in this state- ment, it is tolerably certain that the lapse of a very few months will see the end of the Quixotic folly, not of Don Carlos, who, except at the affair of Amorevieta, did not even appear as a Don Quixote, but of the Basque and Catalonian peasantry. The winter cold bites hard and sharp and the winter wind cuts you like a razor on those stern sierras where Castells and Tristany still head a few hundreds of credulous partizans. If Don Carlos means to enter Madrid in triumph he had better be- quick about it, or else he may have to do it without any attendants except the escort which King Amadeo will be glad to furnish him. It is true that Senor Zorrilla speaks of punishments in store for the insurgents, and that this may be calculated to intensify resistance. We do not suspect, however, that any but the insurgent leaders are in danger of serious punishment. The Government of King Amadeo will know how to distinguish between dupers and duped, and the engagement to respect the provincial privileges, the treasured fueros, of the northern districts must tend to allay a good deal of disaffection. It was in the name of the beloved fueros that Don Carlos called the Navarrese to arms in sunny April last, and it ought to considerably damp the ardour of local patriotism to find that the fueros will be quite as safe with- out any uncomfortable sojournings on the wintry hills.
Undoubtedly the weak, or at least the weakest, point of the Zorrillist programme is the reiterated intention to spare no expense in blood or gold to win back Cuba. It was easier for Corinth to reduce Corcyra than for Spain to reduce Cuba. It is practically impossible, indeed, to beggar Spain. The natural riches of that superb country only need a little courage and common-sense on the part of its rulers to enable it to bear with lightness indefinitely greater burthens than any which even unusually dark imaginings can conjure up for it. Looking at the present state of affairs, however, Spanish finance is the reverse of satisfactory, and it is hard to see how matters can be much mended, so long as the unproductive expenditure on Cuban massacres and counter-massacres continues. Fifty thousand soldiers of the best troops of Spain have fruitlessly perished during the past four years amid the deadly defiles around Santiago de Cuba. It may be doubted if there are ever five thousand insurgents in the field, but there are five hundred thousand of the ill- disposed, and recruits are ever stealing away from the field- gangs of distant plantations, from higher circles of life as well, to make good the losses of the Emancipators. Granted that the island is subdued, it will cost as much to keep it as to conquer it. Upon this point, however, the Spaniards will not listen to reason, the indomitable Castillian pride strains desperately after that last remnant of the proud empire of the Indies, and as Senor Zorrilla must after all please the Spaniards, he must re-echo the fatal pledge that Cuba must be retained. It is at least a consolation to be able to believe that the Radicals will do more for the realisation of the pro- mised reforms in the Antilles, and especially for the long- delayed emancipation of the slaves, than could be expected from the antecedents of the Conservative factions.
Any appreciation of Senor Zorrilla's programme would, however, be very superficial and imperfect, if we did not take account of the situation occupied by the Radicals at present in Spain. Upon this point there has been a great deal of clearing-up and elucidation within the past few months, and even within the past few weeks, and we can now say with tolerable certainty upon what side the new dynasty is to find allies and upon what side it is to find enemies. While the Liberal Conservatives of the Serrano-Topete-Sagasta combi- nation held the reins of power and enjoyed the sweets of office, it was more difficult to arrive at exact conclusions. The fine Conservative appreciation of the advantages of authority made many a secret Alfonsist wear all the outward seeming of a staunch supporter of Don Amadeo's throne ; nor, indeed, was it always easy among the discarded Radicals to dis- tinguish the murmurs of discontent from the menaces of disaffection. Always, however, there was a broad difference between the tendencies of the two parties, which had by such different courses come to be joint factors in the work of the September Revolution. The disappointed Unionist looked back ; the disappointed Radical looked forward. The Unionist was seldom more than
a Montpensierist, that is to say, a semi-Alfonsist. The Radical might very well become a Republican, and was always disposed to extend the greatest benevolencia to the Republi- cans. At a push the Unionist was prepared to undo the work of the September Revolution. Driven to bay, the Radical might carry out that revolution to its extreme, but would never repudiate it. For some time, accordingly, it was doubtful whether the rival factions would not fight it out between them, by both dropping King Amadeo, and openly opposing the ancient Monarchy to the rising Republic. The well-timed resolution of the King in accepting Serrano's re- signation rather than accept Serrano's martial law has pre- vented, and to all appearances finally prevented, this solution of the quarrel, between the Radicals and the Conservatives at least. There seems to be no longer the slightest danger of the Radicals going over to the Republicans. In the theoretic aspect Don Amadeo's unassuming constitutionalism promises the precise minimum. del Rey which the Radicals admire, while in the practical sphere the fact than Don Amadeo is el Hijo de su Padre is as gratifying to the Zorrillist priest-haters as the bitter jest that Don Alfonso is only e/ Hijo de su 2Ifadre is annoying to the long-suffering adherents of the royalism of Queen Isabella. The battle of the Revolution, the great " To be or Not to be " of contemporary Spain, is being fought out, avowedly in the name of the kingship of the Savoyard on the one side, and unmistakably in the name of the kingship of the Bourbon on the other. It is needless to say what is the attitude of the Bourbon journals which have never ceased to be Bourbon. The important feature is that such leading organs of " the Conservatives of the Revolution " as the Politica and Debate affect no con- cealment of the present views of the great military and naval
coalition which carried the Bridge of Alcolea against the artillery of Novaliches, and decided the defection of the fleet , in the bay of Cadiz. On the other hand, the Tertulia, the organ of Senor Zorrilla, does not hesitate to say that the I September Revolution has suffered by the ascendancy of traitors who have abused the confidence of the people, and that the noble Spanish nation can no longer delay to take decisive measures against deception and reaction.
This, then, is the key to Senor Zorrilla's policy. The Radical chief must take decisive measures. He must cut him- self loose from routine and tradition. At whatever cost, he must cut the ground from under mortal enemies, unless he is to allow the mortal enemies to cut the ground from under him. If the enemies have large powers still in their hands, if the Army and the Navy swarm with the partisans of Serrano and Topete, or with the hardly more dangerous par- tisans of the Marquis de Novaliches and the Conde de Chester, if out of forty thousand priests in Spain not the thirtieth part have ever performed the formality of taking the oath to the Constitution, if the Bishop of Jaen has within the last fort- night gone the length of suspending from preaching and con- fessing a few priests of his diocese who had ventured to take that oath; on the other hand, Senor Zorrilla is intrenched in a citadel which he were a fool if he did not utilise. By the fairest general election which Spain has known for years, the Radicals have obtained a Parliamentary majority of nearly three hundred out of four hundred ; nor is it likely that the eighty Republicans will refuse to aid the Zorrillists in legislation against standing armies, against clerical school- masters, against non-juring priests and excommunicating bishops. If prxtorianism again raises its head against estab- lished authority, then let there be universal military service. If the Altar refuses to bless the Crown, then so much the worse for the Altar. At the same time, Senor Zorrilla is not unaware of the conditions of his task. We are reminded of Gambetta insisting upon the necessity of conciliating the rural populations in France, when we find the Spanish Premier bidding the Radicals remember that there are twelve millions of Spaniards—three-fourths of the population of Spain—who live apart from the quarrels of politicians. To gain that inert multitude for his cause is the permanent necessity of Senor Zorrilla. To anticipate him and to sub- vert him is the game of the Bourbonist conspirators. A few days ago the Ministerial prints announced the discovery of a plot which was to have exploded on the day of the inaugu- ration of the new Cortes, and which, apparently modelled on some such coup d'etat as Napoleon III. achieved and Colonel Guttierez attempted, aimed at the simultaneous seizure by means of the military force of the public offices and the whole personnel of the Government, the proclamation of Don Alfonso, and the insurrection of the provinces. The occur- rence, be it rumour, be it certainty, will serve to illustrate the fact that the reactionists, having lost the legislative power, are bent on supplanting the Legislature, and that a Premier in possession of an immense Parliamentary majority is bent on eradicating unparliamentary agitation by Parliamentary means.
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