THE WRITING ON THE WALL.
WE have always urged that Ulster was the weakest point in the Government's Home Rule Bill, and that it was through insistence on forcing North-East Ulster under a Dublin Parliament that their scheme would ultimately break down. To put it in another way, their refusal or, if you will, their inability to apply their own principles to North-East Ulster will in the ena make the nation realize that Home Rule for Ireland is an im- possibility if it is to be founded on the principle that local majorities have a right to demand a special type of local autonomy. You cannot give local autonomy to Ireland because she demands it and force it upon North-East Ulster, even though she will rebel. As soon as the country understands—as one of our correspondents puts it—that the Home Rule Bill is really an Ulster Coercion Bill, the attempt to apply it must fail. This is exactly what is happening. The country is beginning to understand what the Government Bill really means and what they are pro- posing to do with Ulster. Accordingly the Home Rule scheme is beginning to crumble away. The proof of what toe have just said is to be found in the most significant fact that, though the Government's full majority is 120, that majority dwindled to 69 on a vote whether Ulster should be forced under a Dublin Parliament or should be allowed to remain under the Parliament at Westminster. And, remember, this astonishing diminution in the Government's majority comes at a most critical moment, when members are naturally inclined to show their loyalty. Again, the diminution has come in spite of the fact that every one knows that the Bill cannot be carried into operation at once, but that there will be occasions for reconsidering the Bill next year and the year after, and also in spite of the,.e'act that the debate was twice adjourned and that the Government had the fullest opportunity, not only for whipping up their people, but for choosing the moment for taking the vote which was most favourable to them. The reduced majority can only mean that there are an appreciable number of Liberals who cannot reconcile it with their consciences and with their principles of action to force upon the local majority in North-East Ulster a form of government which its inhabitants detest, and which they have told us in the plainest terms they mean to resist. A little closer examination of the figures shows among other things that the inclusion of Ulster was only carried by the votes of the Southern Irish. Roughly speaking, the members for England, Wales, and Scotland are equally divided on the question of forcing North- East Ulster under a Dublin Parliament. Thus in effect we see the matter decided by the votes of the Nationalists. They say to the people of North-East Ulster : " You shall come under our domination whether you like it or not." That is the naked fact. No doubt it may be argued that the will of the majority must prevail. But then the question becomes one of units, and we have to ask once more the plain question : Why is the unit of the second-sized island in the British Archipelago a sacred unit which cannot under any considerations be divided and North-East Ulster a unit whose views have no claim whatever to be heard or considered ? In fact, the Southern Irish are claiming to be and acting as judges in their own cause. But that, as Burke said, is the most dangerous action that a man or any body of men can take.
We have said above that owing to the way in which the Ulster problem has been brought before the country, the nation is at last beginning to understand the true meaning of Home Rule. Assuredly this process of enlightenment will go on. Let no one suppose that any Unionist will admit that the division of Tuesday night settles anything, or that after it the Ulster people should give up their opposi- tion, or that those Unionists like ourselves who, though they detest the break-up of the legislative union, detest and dread still more that break-up plus the horrors of civil war, are henceforth going to remain silent. All those who on various grounds realize the vital importance of the Ulster problem, the nature of the wrong which is about to be perpetrated, and the great danger to the moral of the nation which is involved, must and, we are sure, will do their very best in the future to bring the Ulster problem prominently before the country, and to preach, in season and out of season, what must be the inevitable consequences if the Government insist on forcing Ulster under a Dublin Parliament. We are certain that in the end the country will listen to and be affected by these arguments, just as oven so deaf and callous a thing as a party majority has been forced to listen to and will be influenced by them. If in spite of the full pressure of the Whips and of party discipline a majority of 120 can be turned into one of only 69, who can say that we are living in a fool's paradise when we assert that the country can and will be made to understand the facts ? In truth the people who are living in a fool's paradise are those who imagine that Ulster does not mean business when she talks of resistance, and that her threatened rebellion will evaporate in a, resolution and a few fiery speeches. That is not the way things are going. If the Home Rule Bill is passed and those portions of North- East Ulster in which there is a, local majority against going under a, Dublin Parliament are not exempted, the Government, as we said last week, will be obliged to face the following dilemma. They will either have to put down and hold down Ulster at the point of the bayonet—it will not be a day's struggle which can be settled with one whiff of grape-shot, but a resistance which will last for months or years—or allow an Act of Parliament to become a dead letter. A curious example of this living in a fool's paradise in which many Liberals indulge is shown in a letter which appears in our issue of to-day. Our correspondent " G. C. M." thinks that all will be well, and that there will be no need to use physical force to coerce Ulster. He apparently be- lieves that the difficulty can be got rid of by making a kind of ring fence round North-East Ulster and Belfast, and by leaving the Ulstermen severely alone till, as he would say, they come to themselves. He thinks that after a slight taste of the inconveniences of going without a postal and telegraph service the sober and industrious traders of the North will throw up the sponge and go quietly back to their money-making. Little does he know the temper of the Protestants of Belfast and the counties of Antrim and Armagh, Down and Derry. No doubt they are good men of business, and no doubt they will hate the interruption of commerce, but they are not going to give up their plan of resistance merely because it will cost them money or be inconvenient from the ledger point of view.
Our correspondent, we note, among other things pro- poses that the port of Belfast should be blockaded and no ships allowed to go in or out till the Ulstermen havo given way. In the first place we may remark that this is by no means consistent with his theory of letting the Ulster people alone till they come to their senses, but is a highly provocative act which would certainly lead to an immediate conflict. Only those who are bereft of political imagination could con- template such a proposal. Let us see what it means. Let us suppose the Government have stationed a couple of cruisers and several destroyers outside the entrance to Belfast Lough with orders to stop any ships from coming out. In that case we may be quite certain that some firm of Belfast merchants would at once determine to test the reality of the Government's intention. They would, we feel sure, as men excited by what to them will be a political event of incalculable importance generally do, decide that the Government threats were bluff, and they would determine to break the blockade. Their ship would be directed to run past the Government ships—which, by the way, will be committing a totally illegal act in blockading unless special legislation is obtained for the purpose. But if a vessel were to attempt to run out through a blockading force and were to refuse to stop when signalled to do so the Government would have to do one of two things. Either they must give orders to -sink the ship by firing a shell or a, torpedo into her with a consequent loss of life and bloodshed, which our correspondent says will be avoided under his scheme, or else must admit that the blockade is a. farce, to which no one need attend if he does not want to do so.
The whole idea of avoiding fighting and bloodshed in this way is an utter absurdity. If Ulster refuses to be bound by a Home Rule Bill or to acknowledge a Dublin Parliament, one of two things must happen. The Bill must be allowed to become a dead letter or Ulster must be coerced by the use of Imperial troops. And here no mere show of force will be enough. " Shoot, and shoot to kill " will be the order that must be given and ought to be given by the Government if they intend to put down Ulster by force, for a feeble rather than a strong use of soldiery against an insurrection is always a mistake. But this means, as we have said again and again, slaughter not by tens and twelves but by hundreds, or even by thousands. Carrying Belfast street by street against an armed popula- tion is not, of course, impossible, but it will mean a very large butcher's bill. Is the Liberal Party prepared for this ? If they are, then no doubt they will have plenty of chance to show that force is a remedy. If they are not, then once more we urge upon them, and before it is too late, to see that their measure is fitted with a safety-valve —a safety-valve which will prevent the dreadful necessity of coercing Ulster by the force of arms.
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