IS THERE HOPE FOR COUNTRY GENTLEMEN ?
AT various times during the last few years, there have been indications of partial recovery from the severe agricultural depression which has so long afflicted this country, in common with other parts of the world ; but just when conditions appeared most decidedly hopeful, some- thing has occurred to counteract their beneficial tendency. For example, the harvests of the "eighties," as a whole, were very much better than those of the " seventies ;" but then, the prices of corn were almost constantly declining during the later decade, temporary advances, although confidently expected to continue, having been checked by unforeseen circumstances. In 1890, when America and Russia both had poor crops of wheat, and India less than -an average outturn, there was every reason to anticipate a -considerable advance in values ; but the crops of nearly all European countries turned out exceptionally abundant, and it was found that Russia possessed heavy reserve stocks, accumulations left over from the extraordinary har- vests of 1887 and 1888 having rendered even the small crop of 1889 redundant, so that the average price of wheat for the :year came out at only about 2s. a quarter higher than that -of 1889, the lowest of the century. Again, to take another branch of agriculture, the prices of live stock in 1889 and and 1890 were high enough to make breeding a prosperous industry, while graziers had no reason to complain of the prices of meat; but the extraordinary severity of last winter destroyed the turnip crops, so that there was a great scarcity of food for cattle and sheep early in 1891, and the markets were glutted with animals which could be kept only at a great expense for purchased food. The depression in the live-stock trade was made lasting by the -winterly character of the spring and early summer, which prevented feeding-crops from growing in due season. The result was a serious collapse of the breeding interest in &reat Britain and Ireland. Dairy-produce, too, sold badly in 1890, when it was imported, in common with cattle and meat, upon a larger scale than in any previous year. It is such evidence as this which farmers are able to bring forward in opposition to hopeful statements. They hug agricultural depression as if they loved it, and nothing annoys them so much as to be told that it is subsiding. It is their hereditary policy to depreciate their circum- stances, partly in order to keep rents down, and partly— in the case of the majority of them—because they still have a hankering after Protection, and do not want to appear able to get on without it. But, in spite of draw- backs which make improvement slow, and even prevent it as far as certain sections of farmers are concerned, there is no doubt that the conditions under which farming is carried on have improved ; while there is reason to believe that more substantial improvement is now setting in. If generally good crops have been sold at low prices, it must be borne in mind also that rents and other expenses of farming have been greatly reduced. In more ways than one, farmers have learned to " cut their coats according to their cloth." Nearly all of them have obtained reductions in rent, ranging from small proportions up to 75 per cent., since the climax of depression was reached in 1879. Feeding-stuffs de- clined with the price of corn, and manures and implements also became cheaper, while labour and household expenses were economised. Land has been laid down in grass, temporarily or permanently, where it would not pay to cultivate for corn, and so has been rendered remunerative. Thus, by various changes, expenditure has been brought down to meet diminished returns, and the great majority of farmers, who, to judge from their complaints, might have been supposed to be constantly on the verge of ruin, have been able to get a living, and to bring up their families respectably. They have had a hard struggle, and have lost a great deal of their capital ; but most of them must have made profits, or they would not have continued to occupy their farms, and the bankruptcy returns have shown comparatively few failures among them in recent years. Moreover, the collectors of the Agricultural Returns and land-agents generally report a more hopeful feeling as growing among farmers, evidence of which is to be found in an increased demand for farms. Landowners have much less land in hand than they had a few years ago, and even the deserted clays of Essex are being taken up by Scotchmen and men from various parts of England. Judging from reports of the land-sales of the past year, contributed by the leading land-agents of the country to two papers specially concerned with the subject, confidence in land as an investment has not yet been restored, although some improvement in the demand for it is noticed in a few counties ; but this will follow a revival of farming prosperity, unless legislation in relation to real property takes an alarming turn, the fear of which is cited. by many of the writers as one reason for the continued depression in the land market.
In spite of the abnormal character of the past season, the harvest proved a good one, and, as prices have risen since 1890, growers of corn cannot fail to obtain better returns than they have received in recent years as a rule. The average price of wheat in 1891 was 37s. a quarter, and this, although not a high average, is not as low as that of any year that has passed since 1883 ; while the yield of the last crop, as returned by the Board of Agriculture for Great Britain, is 314 bushels an acre, or nearly 21 bushels above the estimated " ordinary average." In this connection we may notice one of the checks to improvement in farmers' prospects which we have already referred to as having occurred frequently just when amelioration seemed most certain. The enormous deficiency of wheat and rye in Europe led to expectations of a great advance in prices, and this has only been prevented by a phenomenal produc- tion of wheat in the United States, amounting to 611 million bushels, or nearly a hundred million bushels more than the greatest crop ever before grown in that country. India, too, has proved able to send to Europe during the last twelve months a greater quantity of wheat than has ever before been contributed by that source of our supplies. Since harvest, therefore, our markets have been glutted, instead of being sparsely supplied, and trade has been dull for some weeks past. But the utmost surplus that exporting countries can spare must fall short of European • requirements, unless reserve stocks are drawn upon almost to exhaustion ; so that farmers may confidently count upon obtaining fair prices for their wheat, if they exercise a little patience. Their other crops turned out moderately well, and oats have advanced in value. On the whole, their returns for corn are likely to be a whole rent on their corn-land more than they have been in some recent years. On the other hand, the prices of mutton and wool have fallen considerably, and beef has sold no better than in 1890. In butter there has been an improvement, but not in cheese. Bearing in mind the decline in the values of lean stock already mentioned, it cannot be said that the past year has done much to hasten a substantial revival of agricultural prosperity. Nevertheless, we believe that the year will hereafter be remembered as the beginning of a period of steady improvement in the fortunes of farmers in this country, and probably in other parts of the world also. The evidence leading up to this conclusion is somewhat voluminous, and we can refer to it only in general terms.
Although agricultural depression in this country was in the first instance produced by a succession of unfavourable seasons, occurring at a time when rents and other farm expenses had been forced up to the highest point, itwas main- tained by a great increase of foreign competition. During the decade ending with 1880, the wheat-area of the United States alone was doubled, the increase being nearly nineteen million acres ; while in Canada, Australasia, and South America it was extended by three to four million acres more, and a large increase took place in India, with a small one in Europe. There are no agricultural 'statistics for the whole of India for as far back as 1870; but there is no doubt that the wheat-acreage increased greatly between that year and 1880, as the exports to Europe became considerable in 1880-81, and were between four and five million quarters per annum in the next five years, and over five millions in 1886-87. Probably the wheat- area of the world increased by nearly or quite thirty million acres in the decade, and the consequence was, that the supply became greatly in excess of requirements, prices falling below a remunerative standard after 1883, when Indian supplies had become heavy. During the same period there was a great development of meat-production on the vast cattle ranges and ranches of America, as well as in Australasia, and our imports of dead meat increased by nearly six million hundredweights, while cattle and sheep also came in much greater numbers as the period advanced. Our imports of butter, too, were doubled during the ten years. Soon after 1880, however, low prices checked the progress in production, which had been so rapid. The American wheat-area was practically stationary during the ten years ending with 1890, although the population in- creased by 121 millions, while in the world at large there was but a small addition to the acreage of the principal cereal. After the average price in this country had fallen below 40s. a quarter, as it did in 1884, wheat-growing apparently was not remunerative in any part of the world, with the possible exception of India. At any rate, it did not pay well enough to cause the area to expand in propor- tion to the growth of population. Mr. C. Wood Davis, an American agriculturist and statistician, calculates that in the decade ending with 1890, the annual produc- tion of wheat in the world increased by less than eight million quarters, while that of rye was diminished con- siderably; yet, during the period, the bread-eating popu- lations of European blood increased by forty-two millions, requiring increments of more than twenty-one million quarters of wheat, and from twelve to thirteen million quarters of rye. Therefore, if it had not been for an extraordinary series of good harvests during the "eighties," the great redundance of production with which the decade began would have been reduced to a deficiency long before the end of that period. As it was, the reserve stocks of wheat in nearly all countries had been pretty well exhausted by the end of the harvest year 1890-91; and there is every reason to believe that they will be even more nearly depleted before next harvest. During the present decade it will be necessary to add greatly to the wheat-area of the world, in order to supply the increasing population with bread, and as the required increment has not taken place during recent years of low prices, it is only reasonable to conclude that it will not be induced except under the stimulus of a substantial advance. Even in India and Australasia, the acreage has declined during the last few years ; while there has been no appreciable increase in Canada, in spite of the development of farming in Mani- toba and the North-West. In the United States, the price of wheat was comparatively high in 1890—relatively higher than in Europe—and the acreage, partly because there was no winter-killing, was greater in 1891 than ever before, though less than half-a-million acres more than in 1884. But nearly all the available land in that country which will grow wheat without irrigation has been taken up, so that any considerable increase in production would involve either the displacement of other produce, or a greater expenditure for the purpose of getting more grain out of a given acreage. It is true that there are vast tracts of land in Canada, South America, Australia, and Africa upon which grain can be grown when the necessary expenditure has been made in roads, railways, and irrigation works ; but as such development has not taken place on any considerable scale, while prices have been extremely low, the assumption is that it will not take place until prices rise. The argu- ments which apply to wheat are more or less applicable also to other grain. The cultivators of the soil have not had their fair share of the world's products and pleasures of late, and the natural result has followed. Hence we conclude that a revival in the grain-growing nterest is inevitable, although we believe that a moderate advance in prices will suffice to produce the required in- crease in production. Similar arguments apply to the production of meat, although less forcibly. As the ranges and ranches upon which meat has been produced very cheaply in America be- come broken up—and they are being settled very rapidly— the cost of laying down meat in this country will become greater. As it is, shipment appears to pay only when prices here are fairly remunerative to home producers, the fall in values which took place in the first half of 1891 having reduced our imports of cattle and some kinds of meat. Australasia and the River Plate countries. are no doubt to be looked to in future to send increased quantities of meat to Europe, especially if some means of shipping without freezing it can be perfected. It is doubtful, however, whether even frozen mutton has paid shippers during the last few months, prices having been so low that the net return could not have been more than 8s. a head for New Zealand sheep, nor so much for Australian and Argentine animals. As to butter, which has been sent to us from foreign countries in increasing quantities for years past, and will probably be supplied by them more and more liberally, we know of no reason why British farmers should not compete on favourable terms with foreigners, or at least with European foreigners, in British markets. As we do not increase our home supply of butter, the foreign supply must necessarily become greater ; but our dairy-farmers' difficulties have arisen from lack of uniformity of quality and a bad system of distribution, rather than from any advantage which their principal competitors possess in respect of cost of production. As to cheese, British makers of the best qualities, though they have had their bad years, have held their own fairly, in spite of foreign competition, which they will have less and less cause to fear as America becomes more and more populous. These are some of the reasons which induce us to anticipate a period of moderate prosperity for agriculture. There are other reasons, connected with recent discoveries in science and the great advances now being made in agricultural education, into which we cannot enter upon the present occasion.
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