A SPANISH-AMERICAN UNION. T HE Globe of Wednesday gives an account
of a movement among the Spanish and Portuguese speaking peoples of the Old and New Worlds which, if it were to take a real and practical shape, might have the most momentous consequences. According to the Globe, the object of the movement is a close alliance between Spain, Portugal, and all the Spanish and Portuguese States of Central and Southern America. " Last week an organising committee met in Madrid under the presidency of the Prime Minister, with whom were all the Cabinet. A large number of Spanish notables took part in the meeting, and the aims of the Union and its future programme were expounded with much clearness by Setior Sagasta and others." A great Congress will be held in Madrid next October, at which the representatives of Latin America will meet those of Spain and Portugal. At present the aim of these Latin States is said to be arbitration among themselves, "but it is pretty evident that the bond is intended to go further than that The genesis of the movement is curious. It is said to be the outcome of two things : " the war in which Spain's Fleet was crushed by the United States, and the example given by Greater Britain in rallying to the Mother-country when Messrs. Kruger and Steyn so insolently invaded Natal last October. The first event killed all the jealousy felt by the former Spanish colonies in South America for their mother-country, and the second showed the advan- tages afforded by the union of mother and daughter States." Spain, that is, is no longer feared by the oversea Spaniard, but is pitied as being, with all her faults, the mother of the race, and this pity is tending to grow into love. Again, the Spanish and Portuguese Americans are believed to have been made extremely uneasy by the way in which the United States has assumed the position of the arbiter of the Western Hemisphere. The Spanish and Portuguese Republics liked the Monroe doctrine well enough as long as it seemed to them merely a protection against European aggression. They are now, however, beginning to regard it with suspicion, and to fear that it may be used to coerce some into an obedience which they would detest. In other words, the Spanish and Portu- guese States of the New World have begun to think that they would feel safer if they were to join together for mutual help and protection. But given such a union, there is no reason why the two mother-countries, which are now neither richer nor stronger than several of the daughter- States, should not take their place in the movement.
No doubt there are very great possibilities in this idea. If Spain and Portugalp/us Spanish and Portuguese America could really stand. together, and if the head- ship of the combination were to fall to a man of genius, we should find that a new force had arisen in the world. That quasi-federation would have command of vast wealth of all kinds, besides food and horses in abundance, and also might be able to command the services of many millions of armed men. But what chance is there of the combination holding together or of it being guided by an able man ? Very little, we should think, for the jealousies and hatreds will be many and great. The States that would compose it if it ever comes into existence—which we greatly doubt—would be in such various stages of political and material develop- ment that it would be very difficult to find common ground. Mexico, for example, is now in a very flourish- ing condition. She is rich, her public finances are in fair order, her administration is, on the whole, decently ordered, and she has a large number of fairly efficient troops. Chili, again, is in a reasonably sound condition, and so is the Argentine. But this fact would not make Brazil or Venezuela or Bolivia or Peru or Ecuador the least inclined to accept these more civilised States as guides. They would hate the notion of being "bossed" by a Mexican or a man from Argentina. Even stronger would be the dislike of being guided by a European Spaniard. But though, for these reasons, we very much doubt the formation of anything approaching a close union, it is of course always possible that external pressure might tem- porarily drive the various Spanish and Portuguese States of America together in a kind of panic of apprehension. Suppose, for example, that when America begins to move in earnest in regard to an Isthmian canal the American negotiators were to cause great annoyance in the Central American Republics, that an actual quarrel were to break out, and that the Americans were to prepare to use force to carry out their views. Under such circumstances one can conceive a wave of feeling arising throughout Spanish and Portuguese America which might produce a momentary union. To avoid contingencies of this kind was, no doubt, one of the reasons that made Mr. Hay refuse to ask for the particular modification of the Clayton-Bulwer Treaty which would allow the fortification of the canal. He did not want to run the risk of having the Central American Republics calling upon their kin throughout the New World to preserve them from the indignity of forts being built by the foreigner on their soil. In our opinion, Mr. Hay's handling of the canal problem showed. that he possessed the statesman's instinct in a high degree. The possibility of a combination of Spanish and Portuguese States with which we are dealing shows how well he diagnosed. the situation. There are, of course, other ways in which the United States and a Spanish-Portuguese union might become antagonistic. The Monroe doctrine itself might prove a cause of friction. If a Spanish Republic misused a German trader the United States might prefer to intervene directly rather than to allow European intervention which might lead to a violation of the Monroe doctrine. But what if the Republic has agreed to combine in resistance to American action ? To put the matter in another way. The Monroe doctrine if really carried out must involve a certain amount of American tutelage over Spanish and Portuguese America. You are bound to be to some extent responsible for, and to exercise discipline over, those you protect. But suppose that tutelage put in operation, it might very likely be resented by a federation among the States which were treated as in tutelage.
There is, again, yet another possibility in regard to a Spanish-Portuguese-American union. Suppose it to exist and to assume a specially Latin character, might it not be possible for France, which has always claimed to be the leader and representative of the Latin races, to put herself at the head of the movement, and to revive her power and prosperity by reinvigorating " the Indies" ? Of course everything is possible, and France has no doubt always possessed ambitions in the direction of Spain and the leadership of the Latin races, but we very much doubt anything practical coming from such an attempt— though it would have been just the attempt to attract Napoleon III., whose dreamy mind loved such vast and vague schemes. On the whole, we are inclined to think.that very little will come of the projected union unless the United. States by a blundering and inept diplomacy in Central America were to do something which would bring all Spanish-Americans together in arms in defence of their national interests, and still more their national pride. Must we, then, conclude that the vast Spanish and Portuguese population of South America have no great political future under rulers of their own choosing, and that their destiny is either anarchy or else foreign rule, American or European? We should hesitate to give a decided opinion, but we cannot forget that the population of South America is mixed beyond any other in the world, and that a population in which negro, Indian, and European elements are combined and recombined has never yet shown true vigour. Still, time may clarify any mixture, and it is possible that some one State—say Mexico—may develop a really steady and sound polity on Spanish-American lines, and that this polity may gradually spread its in- fluence throughout South America, and in, say, another three hundred years produce a new factor in the world's problem. Time only can answer the riddle. Meantime, we look forward with considerable interest to the doings of the Conference which is to meet in Madrid next October.
Previous page
