COUNT BERCHTOLD'S PROPOSAL.
THE week and more which have passed since Count Berchtold made his proposal to the Powers for " helpine.p " Turkey in her present distress has done little to reveal what is in his mind. The various inter- pretations of the proposal range from bald partition to an innocuous combined profession of regard and promise of moral support. The former would mean changes in the map of Europe ; the second absolutely nothing. We do not suppose that Count Berchtold would have taken the trouble to circularize, so to speak, all the Powers at a moment when a large number of officials were away from their departments—when M. Poinc,are was out of France and Sir Edward Grey in the North of England—if he had not had something definite in his mind. We imagine that he has a plan. Although it would be useless to discuss pure surmises as to what it is, there are several points of interest which even in the absence of information may be worth setting forth.
In the first place, the fact that Count Berchtold should have called all the Powers to counsel is notable in itself. The Concert of Europe stirs its dead bones and—though no actual conference seems to be suggested—may possibly rise from the dead. The Concert of Europe had become a kind of by-word, like the Court of Chancery in the old days, for delays and quibbling ineptitude. The resultant of a complicated balance of forces was generally a com- plete inertia. The Concert covered itself with sinister fame in its attempts to settle the Cretan question and impose a working arrangement upon Turkey and Greece. We must not, therefore, be sanguine that it could do any- thing to smooth away the present unrest of the Balkan States and Turkish provinces which from all sides dart out angry tongues at the Turkish Government. Nevertheless, the proposal marks a distinct apaisement, as the French political writers say, in the relations of the Powers. For years we have been accustomed to see the central European Powers—Germany and Austria-Hungary—acting together, with the doubtful support of Italy, and on the other side Britain, France, and Russia advising one another, but not being consulted or expecting to be consulted, by the chief members of the Triple Alliance. Most notable of all is the fact that the suggestion of a general consultation should have come from Austria, who herself acted as though the Treaty of Berlin did not exist, and violated the public law of Europe when she annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina. If, however, the past is to be forgotten—for our part we would most willingly forget it, and, indeed, we do not think the ancient regard of Britain for Austria has been at all affected by what has happened—and Europe is once more to live its life on the assumption that arrangements will be held binding till they are formally revoked, then the suggestion of a joint policy in the Balkans comes more naturally from Austria than from any other country.
Austria is a natural and admitted champion of the Christian peoples in a large part of the Balkans. To a great extent this is true also of Russia, as it is also true that Russia is the ultimate patron and protector of the South Slays. But Russia is very much occupied at present at home. We have just been watching the visit of M. Poincare to Russia, and we know that every minute which Russia can spare from the Far East will be devoted to her new scheme of naval and military regeneration. When that is com- pleted perhaps circumstances will bring it about that Russia and Austria will renew their former duel in the south-east of Europe—though we think it much more likely that the sharp outlines of that conflict will be lost in the wider conflicting policy of the two great European groups—but, at all events for the present, Austria need expect no particular impedi- ments from Russia. Italy, again, has signed away her freedom of action. If she did not actually promise Austria not to touch Albania and Epirus while carrying on her war with Turkey, the exigencies of the situation exact from her that restraint. Her thoughts are wholly in Tripoli, in the Greek islands, and in the waters at the entrance to the Dardanelles. So far as Italy is concerned, then, Austria has a free hand to spring upon the Balkans what new policy she pleases. Hitherto there has not been a hint of what Germany really wants. It may be that Germany is the substance behind the shadow ; and in any case we must remember that Austria's obligations to her friend " in shining armour " are such that it would be difficult for her to refuse to utter a good deal of what Germany might put into her mouth. We must not, we repeat, be sanguine. Grant that the intentions of Austria are excellent, and that their excellence is not in any way diluted by the wishes of Germany, can we, even then, expect that Austria will be able to produce a panacea for Turkey ? Are we not rather compelled reluctantly to remember that, although she is in a binding union with Hungary, she does nothing, or can do nothing, to prevent the oppression of the South Slays by the domineering Magyars of Hungary ?
How, indeed, are the aspiring Balkan States to be satisfied except by the satisfaction of their appetite ? They are hungry vultures who sit in a circle round the lion waiting for him to get into greater difficulties or to die. Their own idea is to enlarge their borders. When under the Miirzsteg scheme it was ingenuously proposed that Macedonia should be granted local autonomy accord- ing to the distribution of the various races in the province there was a wild rush of Bulgars, Greeks, and Serbs to extend their borders by violence. Men changed their religion at the point of the rifle or with the dagger at their breast. Count Berchtold suggests that the Balkan States should be advised to keep the peace. Excellent. It is what we all desire. But the Balkan States know very well that such advice is offered only at a time when they have an exceptionally good opportunity of getting what they want. It is not more than a rumour that Count Berchtold seriously contemplates forcing a policy of decentralization—in other words, of provincial autonomy— on Turkey. What does seem probable is that he wishes the Powers to offer identical advice to Turkey as well as to the Balkan States. This advice would not apparently be offered as a joint manifesto, but in independent formulas all having the same effect. Thus Turkey and the Balkan States would be impressed by the cumulative effect of the same warning coming from various quarters and expressed with various arguments peculiar to the country of its origin. If this could be done with effect so much the better. But the break-up of Turkey would precipitate a scramble, and in. our opinion everything, however well-intentioned, would be dangerous that made it in the least degree more difficult for Turkey to retain her precarious hold upon life. So long as there is even a remote chance that Turkey will win through, the policy of Europe should be to heighten what small sense of security she enjoys, not only in her own eyes, but in those of her neighbours. It would be a great point gained, no doubt, if, while the essential conditions of preserving Turkish prestige were kept in view, local autonomy could be granted to the various races in Macedonia under proper safeguards. All that Macedonia wants is the assurance that life and pro- perty will be safe. She wants rest. She has all the material resources of a prosperous and happy community. But to appear to force a policy of autonomy on Turkey would be to defeat the very ends which Count Berchtold, no doubt, has in view. Turkey recalls only too vividly her experience in Eastern Rumelia to think without some qualms of granting autonomy. Still we hope that after the approach- ing elections in Turkey a really liberalizing element may be in the ascendant, and that it will be perceived by the Turkish Government that the great paradox is, after re true, that the frank recognition of dissimilarities within an empire is the golden rule of unity. If the policy of Ottomanization does not cease, then, indeed, there will be little hope for Turkey. The Albanian question is not really the difficulty which it often seems to be. Albania does not desire separation; her Moslem tribes prefer to remain under the Sultan. As for the revolts of Arabs they are too remote to trouble Europe. Macedonia is the sole crux.
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