EUROPE BEYOND THE AXIS
Danubian Destiny. By Graham Hutton. (Harrap. 7s. 6d.)
THE map of Europe that was changed last year had been studied by generations of Continental staff officers and tested, in its essential balance, by many campaigns. There has not been time either to study or to test the new lay-out of Europe, and Mr. Graham Hutton has done important spade work in a lucid survey of the strategic and economic effects of the Munich settlement on the Danubian and Mediterranean countries east of the Berlin-Rome axis. For those who know something of the deep conflicts of races, religions and ambitions around the Danube, there is a curious fascination in prophecy; it was perfectly expressed by Colonel Moravec of the Czech staff in a now famous sentence : " If Czecho-Slovakia falls, there will ensue not merely ^ transposition of the frontier posts in Europe but a new division of the world." Mr. Hutton does not neglect speculation. The first part of the book deals with mountains, rivers, railways, roads and distances. The upshot is that Germany now controls the passes, the valleys, the bridge-heads and the heights from the Low Countries up the Rhine and along the whole Alpine range to the middle Danube and northwards to the Baltic. " Like the obverse of the Hunnish, Avar, Mongol and Turkish waves which over- swept these smaller nations in earlier centuries, a German wave has now started to sweep into the Danubian basin." So long as Italy remains on her side, Germany is better placed for a domination of Europe than she has ever been. Her hold on Eastern Europe, however, is still precarious, and the danger of a Slav revolt under Russian leadership must still be reckoned with. More likely is a passive revolt of the Danubian pro- ducers, and here Mr. Hutton rightly stresses the difficulties of mobilising the economic resources of that region for German purposes.
Nevertheless, he thinks that Germany will succeed just sufficiently in South-Eastern Europe to clear the approaches for the great Eastern drive against Russia. In the West, he thinks, Germany will be content to make diplomatic trouble, partly in order to s..cure British and French neutrality while the eastern drive proceeds, and partly in order to keep Italy embroiled with France, and thus to prevent Mussolini "from ratting on the Axis." That is the purpose, too, of German support for Italy's colonial ambitions. More and more en- cumbered with commitments outside Central Europe, Italy is tied to the Reich by the potential danger of a German attack on Northern Italy and the Adriatic Coast.
Thus Mr. Hutton has become one of the first writers on Europe to free himself from the blinkers of Mein Kampf. Hitler laid down the need to destroy France before the start of the Eastern campaign, but that was because fifteen years ago not even Hitler could imagine France giving way in Eastern Europe without a fight. The break-up of French power confirmed at Munich has done away with the strategic need for a Franco-German war (though the ideological need remains), and the Siegfried line, coupled with pressure from Spain, has made it possible for Germany to insulate the Western FOWei3, " while rolling up the map of Europe every- where else."
Mr. Hutton's readers will learn a great deal from his book if they make some allowance for the enthusiasm which some- times leads him to state positively what he can only guess. On the whole, his guesses are very sensible, and they are based on a wide range of knowledge, especially in the economic chapters. His survey of south-eastern resources and of Germany's uncertain ability to develop and exploit them is excellent. He is not content, as other writers on the subject have been, to describe in detail the great commercial progress which Germany has made in these markets by a variety of novel devices. He raises the fundamental question whether the German economy is really complementary, or can be made to be so, to the agricultural economies of Eastern Europe.
He lays much-needed emphasis on the fact that it is not rincipally abroad, but in her domestic structure that Germany is discovering the limitations of empire-building. And he concludes that it would be a mistake to think of that new German empire as being already irresistibly under construc- tion. Governments may be bought or frightened into con- fonnity, but there remain between Germany and Russia one hundred million peasants accustomed for centuries to putting
up passive resistance against alien interference. Herr Hitler may yet find that the Danubian cultivator is harder to deal with than the democratic statesman.
Danubian Destiny is a thoughtful and informative book, useful to expert and student alike. RICHARD FREUND.
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