TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE SITUATION TO-DAY. THE German Emperor may yet prove himself a great soldier or a great administrator, but he cannot be said to have shown himself a great diplomatist. Germany is distinctly weaker, more nervous, and less protected by her alliances than she was when Prince Bismarck was dismissed. At that time she had the warm alliance of Austria for all purposes of defence, and the cordial sup- port of Italy, while Great Britain, though holding herself unpledged, looked on the Triple Alliance with benevolent satisfaction. Any suggestion that England and Germany might quarrel would have been received with ridicule, while the friendship always existing between Italy and Great Britain made it possible that in the Mediterranean at least the benevolence of the latter Power would not in certain contingencies remain platonic. At the same time, though France and Russia were drawing together, their unity was still most imperfect, the French Government not knowing if it could trust Russia, while the Russian Court felt acutely the humiliation involved in courting and relying on a strictly democratic Power. To-day, on the other hand, the Russians and French are so com- pletely allied that the Russian Emperor disposes of the French Army and Fleet, and of much of those resources upon which a French Treasury must rely, and though the Alliance is nominally defensive, the two Powers work together in diplomacy so cordially that in many visible contingencies they might together attack the Triple Alliance. That Alliance, again, has grown perceptibly weaker. The new Ministry in Italy, weary of the weight of armaments which after so many years of waiting have secured no victory, swerves per- ceptibly towards France and Russia, makes a treaty about Tunis which is essentially French, and marries the heir to the throne to a lady who is at least so far a Russian Princess that the Emperor of Russia thinks himself bound to pro- vide her dower. And the Austrian Government, though it does not draw away from the Alliance, and indeed cannot do so, expands its terms so as to secure assistance in defending her own special position to the Eastward, which was not, Prince Bismarck had said, in any way a matter of German concern. Germany could not, he observed in Parliament, suffer an ally to be conquered by an enemy, but the possession of Constantinople did not directly concern the Northern member of the Triple Alliance. These are very considerable changes, even if they were not accentuated by the fact that the cool statesmen who govern at Vienna feel as the years pass on an increasing distrust of the prudence of their great ally, a doubt whether William IL, having become his own Minister, may not on some fine morn- ing give way to his own impulses, and take some step the result of which will be to set the world on fire. They do not forget that he and he only has deprived them of the favour of Great Britain. The English people were alienated for at least one lifetime from the Triple Alliance by the German Emperor's telegram to President Kruger, which, as they read it, implied a claim to ascendency in South Africa, and by the still more serous pressure put upon Lisbon to allow the passage of German troops through Delagoa Bay, while the British Government has been exasperated by a succession of small affronts in East Africa, ending in the high official favour shown to a Pretender in Zanzibar,—that is, in a dominion to which Germany resigned all claim in consideration of the cession of Heligoland. The bitterness might have been removed in a week if the German Emperor had shown good feeling in the struggle at Constantinople ; but he has chosen the side of the Sultan, honouring him personally even after he had heard of the massacres in the capital. Great Britain is now, therefore, not indeed hostile to the Triple Alliance, but inclined to look askance at it, and to prefer, if a choice must be made, to be friendly with the Dual Alliance, which at least does not intrigue in her territories, and might be induced for adequate compensation to inflict on Abd-ul-Hamid the punishment which he so richly deserves. If Austria were by any chance to be "squared" as to the fate of EuropeanTurkey—and remember the house of Hap: burg has from the beginning sought provinces and not glory —Germany might find herself isolated in Europe. and. in spite of her magnificent Army, in most real and urgent danger of invasion. It is her keen, though vague, percep- tion of this danger which causes Germany's unrest, and helps, together with the personal ambitions of her Emperor, to make her Press so excitable that part of it threatens us with the loss of Egypt, while another part declares that if Great Britain will join the Triple Alliance,. India shall be guaranteed to her against Franco-Russian designs.
It is this position of European affairs which prevents no from accepting Lord Rosebery's view of the situation, apart altogether from the humanitarian argument, as an accurate one. He talks perpetually of the " Concert of Europe" as if there were now five Great Powers on the Continent, whereas there are only two, the Triple Alliance and the Dual Alliance, which cannot act together, and either of which would be infinitely stronger for the adhesion of Great Britain. So strong, indeed, would the Dual Alliance be that we doubt whether, so long as it dealt with Eastern Europe only, it either could or would be attacked by its rival. Lord Rosebery said at the Colchester Oyster Feast that he knew, if England acted alone, there would be war, but he carefully abstained from stating, probably for good diplomatic reasons, what war it was that he dreaded so much. Was it really a war of Europe against Great Britain, as the public from his words supposes, or only a war between the two Alliances, which is rather their business than ours ? Such a way would be a horrible one, but confined as it would be to soldiers, we do not know that it would be more horrible than the extinction by torture of an ancient Christian people by a ruling Mussulman caste, and the consequent development of a belief in that caste that massacre is their easiest road to ascendency, a belief fatal to the safety of all subject Christians throughout the- Eastern world. With the two Alliances thirsting for our aid, a combination of them to crush us is hardly con- ceivable, and if there is not to be such a combination, what is Lord Rosebery so alarmed about as to step out of the usual reticence of an ex-Secretary for Foreign Affairs ? If that is what menaces us, then indeed we must retreat, for neither we, nor, we imagine, Mr. Gladstone, nor any of the speakers at the St. James's Hall, have ever maintained that we should be justified in fighting all Europe for the sake of the Armenians, or indeed for any other cause short of our own existence as an Empire. Our contention is that we should grant terms to the Dual Alliance which would secure their aid either in the partition of Turkey, or if that is too large an enterprise, in the deposition of the present Sultan, and the in- stallation of a successor who would appoint a reasonable human being as Grand Vizier, and support him in an effort to govern justly and with humanity. We cannot but suspect that Lord Rosebery, being convinced, as he hinted at Edinbugh, that any wax must be injurious to Great Britain, is ready to sacrifice the Armenians to that policy, and avails himself of an ambiguity to persuade his party that quiescence or an impossible concert are the only two alternatives. He talks of " war," and means war in Europe, while his audiences think he means war by Europe upon Great Britain.
We are obliged to say one more word. Lord Rosebery uses, and his friends in the Press use at his bidding, another argument, upon which it is difficult to write plainly. Like the mouthpieces of the Sultan without exception, his Lordship threatens that if England acts, the Armenian nation, if not all the Christians of the East, will certainly be slaughtered out. That is, he allows a criminal to escape with impunity because, if an attempt is made to arrest him, he will commit more and worse crimes. Is that what is usually called statesmanship ? We believe, as a matter of fact, that if the Sultan were solemnly warned by England and Russia that for any such massacre he would be held personally responsible, no such massacre would occur, even if the elder Ottomans, comprehending the situation, did not depose their chief ; but even granting that the outrage might be attempted, we should hold that to shrink before such a threat would be most unstatesmanlike. It would be to announce to the whole world that in international affairs massacre would always be excused provided that its authors were ready to repeat it on a larger scale. Sup- pose the Chinese, having murdered a dozen missionaries, threatened, if Europe asked for the execution of the assassins, to murder also all their congregations. Would the gunboats be recalled ? Lord Rosebery says ' Yes, I would recall them ; ' but that has hitherto hardly been the temper of the English nation.
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