POLITICS

The election will be decided by the undecided

BRUCE ANDERSON

0 ne poll shows a 5 per cent Labour lead; another one, a 21 per cent lead. This might seem to confirm the suspicion that opinion polls are about as reliable as the gipsy tipsters on Epsom Heath for Derby day, but that might be unfair. It may be that neither poll is a reliable guide to the actual result, but they could still be telling us something interesting. The polls' confusion may reflect the voters' mood.

I have been up country for the past few days, forming an impression of how the campaign is going. The first point that struck me — confirmed by other observers — is the large number of undecided voters. I cannot remember any previous election in which so many people told me that they would make up their minds on 1 May. There are also regional fluctuations. The Tories seem to have bigger problems in London and the south-east than anywhere else, but that is an area of considerable electoral volatility. Then there are the local variations. This is an election in which good candidates and strong organisations will make a difference. There will be no uni- form national swing.

I could not detect any sign of a Labour landslide; there is no surge of enthusiasm for Mr Blair or his party. A majority of the voters would prefer to see Mr Major as prime minister, if this was a presidential election, he would win. But it is a parlia- mentary one, and the public's regard for Mr Major will not necessarily translate into votes for his party. Most voters are not very impressed with the Tory party. I did not, however, come across many former Tory voters who had repudiated their allegiance; doubters are much more numerous than deserters. The best assessment I can make is that around 75 per cent of those who voted Tory last time are certain to do so again, while about 5 per cent have defect- ed. The other 20 per cent are still undecid- ed, though many of them give the impres- sion that they are looking for an excuse to revert to their normal allegiance.

Europe may have provided it. Tory Europhiles often insist that many of their voters care deeply about Europe and are quick to take offence at Euroscep rhetoric. All I can say is that I have yet to meet a Tory voter who is in favour of the single currency. This is not only my opinion; to judge by his response to John Major's demarche, it is also Tony Blair's. A few years ago, Mr Blair's European views were indistinguishable from Ken Clarke's. But now there is a difference. Tony Blair wants his party to win the election.

The gains which Mr Major made on Europe easily outweigh any losses resulting from the electorate's dislike of disunity. After Labour's experiences in the 1980s, the conclusion was that splits lead to elec- toral disaster. That judgment ought, per- haps, to be qualified in two respects. First, the split which really did for Labour was the one that created a new party, which drew off a sizable chunk of Labour votes. Second, the voters who deserted Labour were not only alienated by disunity; they did not like anything that any faction of the party was offering them.

Europe has long been the average Tory voter's grievance of grievances, the princi- pal reason why the party has been doing so badly in the opinion polls. With Jacques Santer's help, Mr Major has now done a great deal to redress matters. He will need to do even more if he is going to win.

A Tory victory is still possible, though unlikely. But an overall Labour majority seems equally unlikely. At the time of writ- ing, I do not believe that Mr Blair is on course to win the 57 seats he would need for an outright win. There could well be another election within a year, called by either Premier Blair or Premier Major. But two crucial factors, both yet to be resolved, might have a dramatic effect on the out- come of this election. The first is turnout. Given that so many voters are bored and/or disillusioned, there could be a significantly lower turnout than at recent elections. That would almost certainly damage Labour. The second is indecision. At least 20 per cent of those who will vote next Thursday have either still to make up their mind or could still change it, so the final days of the election will be critical.

That may work against Labour. At pre- sent, their campaign seems shrill and insub- stantial. 'Time for a change' was a good election cry five weeks ago, but five weeks without any details as to the nature of that change blunts enthusiasm and arouses sus- picion. Then there is Mr Blair. The Tories opted for a long campaign in the hope of cracking him by a combination of tough interviews and prime ministerial debates. They reckoned without Peter Mandelson's ruthless cunning. He knew that Mr Blair was better at grinning than talking. Before the election started, Mr Mandelson told some of his friends in the BBC that there would be debates over his dead body.

But here has been a cost to keeping Mr Mandelson alive. A lot of voters have come to realise that Mr Blair is running away from the questions; if he is not tough enough to survive an election campaign except as the creature of his spin doctors, how could he have the strength to be PM?

The Tories must now find a way of bring- ing together the character question and the European issue. The theme for the last few days ought to be: you cannot trust Blair and you cannot trust Europe.

That brings us back to the question of Kenneth Clarke. In other circumstances, Mr Clarke might have been the Tories' sec- ond biggest asset during this campaign (he would never have equalled Mr Major). He could have been the triumphant Chancellor who was not only proclaiming the prosperi- ty of middle Britain but embodying it. As it is, he has had to be given a much less prominent role than either his status, his personality or his successes should have earned him: all because of Europe.

Mr Clarke's manifest unhappiness is only partly explained by short-term electoral factors. There is a longer-term aspect. When he sees John Major winning support by denouncing federalism and a single cur- rency, while Mr Blair tries to counter this not by disagreeing but by echoing, even Ken Clarke must begin to understand that Europhilia has lost all leverage on British public opinion. This will be the last election in which the Tory Europhiles have any power over the party, and even this time it has been largely a matter of negative capa- bility. They have tried to exercise their vetoes and opt-outs; as soon as the election is over, and whatever the outcome, the rest of the party will insist on cancelling the opt- outs and overriding the vetoes.

Mr Major, meanwhile, has to walk the high wire, as great a feat of trapeze-artistry as his acrobat father, Tom, ever performed. Poor Mr Major; if his party had only allowed him to, he would have had this elec- tion won by now. But the man himself still thinks that he can do it, despite the party.

It is not impossible. This election will be decided by those who are themselves still undecided. The rest of us can only grope for hunches and guesses.