Correspondence
A LETTER FROM DUBLIN. [To the Editor of the SPECTATOR.]
Sin,—May I be pardoned for a little pride in the fact that my last letter to you, sent on the eve of the Free State General Election, gave the closest forecast of the outcome that appeared in the British Press ? But it would need Highland second sight to prophesy with assurance to-day.
President Cosgrave and his colleagues faced with fine personal courage the crisis that followed the murder of Mr. Kevin O'Higgins ; but their political tactics showed the loss of the cool brain that perished. The Electoral Act, which impartial people condemned as penalizing innocent opponents, proved a boomerang ; for it brought 44 deputies into the Dail, and threw the Government into a minority. The absence of one Labour deputy in Canada, and the " jinking " of Mr. Jinks, saved the Government from defeat on a motion of " No confidence " : but in a full House the Government would be able to carry on no longer.
There are strange bedfellows on both sides of the House to-day. Beside the 45 members of the Government party (in which the dominating figure now is General Mulcahy, the late Mr. O'Higgins's old opponent, in office once more) sit the 11 Farmers and 14 Independents, who include the former Unionists. On the Opposition benches sit 44 Republicans, 22 Labour deputies, and the small but highly influential. party of 6 led by Captain William Redmond, D.S.O. Outside the House are 6 non-juring Republicans. Two seats are vacant : the by-elections take place on Wednesday, and the results will be public before this letter. It is worth observing that the present deadlock repeats what has arisen in other countries under " proportional representation " ; and that the solution of dictatorship, used in those countries, threatened to appear when the Government took the almost unlimited powers of the Public Safety Act into its hands.
How will the taking of the oath of allegiance affect the Republican Party in the country ? On this question the future balance of power depends. Some of Mr. De Valera's supporters say bluntly, "We have taken the oath in desperation and under duress, as the best way to further our cause " ; but the tortuous statement issued by the party has set people asking why so much fuss was made if Republicans always regarded the oath as " an empty formula." The Press organ of the " Irish Republican Army " now repudiates the whole political movement. On the other hand, Mr. De Valera may gain supporters that will outweigh the dissident extremists. It is common knowledge that multitudes of nationalists who were opposed to Mr. Cosgrave's administration withheld votes from the obvious Opposition on the ground that abstention was sterile. Mr. De Valera's colleagues, mostly farmers and scholars, include many men very popular in the countryside ; and they may do better than is expected now that to vote for them is to vote for men who will enter the Legislature as constitutional politicians.
The by-elections may give some indication of the drift of the popular mind, although neither constituency is typical of the country, and in neither are typical candidates standing. In County Dublin the Government's chances of holding Mr. O'Higgins's seat are weakened by the 'choice, as candidate, of General O'SulliVan, who stood for what Mr. O'Higgins fought against in his battle for strictly constitutional politics. In Dublin South City, on the other hand, the Republicans- have endangered their hold of the late Countess Markiewicz's seat by the selection of a Jewish candidate. If the Government loses at the polls, the Dail is to be summoned forthwith, and a new Government formed or an election held. If—as- is thought' likelier—the Government position is strengthened by the accession of two Seats; this will be regarded as a public' vote Of confidence, and the House will" not reassemble until October. In this case, the Government will proceed at once
with the application of the Public Safety Act, and the General .. •
Election' will be delayed until mid-winter.
- It has been indiCated that in the latter case President Cosgrave proposes to proclaim forthwith the non-political Republican societies, and to issue deportation orders against the leaders. The principal body threatened, the " I.R.A.,"
announces that deportation orders will be passively resisted. The logical outcome of this would be a fresh filling of the jails, and past history shows the difficulty of localizing such a struggle. Government supporters think that strong action would induce the electorate to rally to Mr. Cosgrave at the winter election. Others think that that cock would not fight again, and that the electorate would vote for 'the middle parties, who are free of entanglement in the feud.
It may be well to observe that a Johnson-Redmond Govern- ment, which so nearly came into being last Tuesday, although it would have the defects of a coalition, would not mean the end of all things. lkir. Johnson is a steady, and, for a Labour man; a conservative, leader. Mr. Redmond is constitutional- ism incarnate. Among his advisers is Captain Henry Harrison, M.C., whom many wish to see in the Dail ; for he has, perhaps, the best financial brain in the Free State. Captain Harrison took a leading part in the effort to bring Mr. De Valera and his big party into constitutional politics. Obliged to co-operate with men of the principles of these, Mr. De Valera finds himself in the position of General Hertzog, when a nominally Repub- lican party in South Africa was debarred, by a necessary alliance with Labour, from pressing a Separatist policy. He is restricted, in effect, to a watching brief for nationalism in culture and economics. Extreme Republicans object to Mr. De Valera's entry to the Dail expressly because they hold that the logic of his action will bring him to General Hertzog's ultimate position of unreserved acceptance of the British connexion.—I am, Sir, &c.,
YOUR DUBLIN CORRESPONDENT.
Previous page
