The wisdom or unwisdom of Lord Derby's policy depends almost
entirely upon the instructions he has issued to the British representative at Constantinople. If he has distinctly ordered Sir Henry Elliot to inform the Sultan that he has nothing to hope from British assistance, he will have done no harm, and will have released his Government from embarrassing entanglements. This country has no desire to aid in a joint occupation of Bosnia or Bulgaria. If, however, he has not done this, his action will tend to precipi- tate a crash at Constantinople, where even now the Pashas believe that if the worst comes to the worst, they will be defended by the British Fleet. That conviction may inspirit the Sultan not only to reject the Note, but to invade Servia and Montenegro, as the Softas advise ; in which event, the Czar will have but two alternatives before him. He must either declare war on Turkey, or step down off his throne. Russian opinion is far too ex- cited to endure the reconquest of free and Christian populations by a Mohammedan power. The Sultan, too, must use the Albanians for the work, and if the Greeks do not seize their opportunity to make a rush for Thessaly, they have strangely lost their old political instinct. In fact, war would be inevitable, with European Turkey for stakes, and all her enemies in the field at once. Whatever may be thought of such a result, it is certainly not the one Lord Derby desires to secure.
