THE STRIKES IN FRANCE AND THE ELECTIONS. T HE rapid extension
of strikes in France—in the mining districts, in Paris, and, indeed, in all industrial centres —is a misfortune for the Government, because it adds to the Opposition another and. powerful group of citizens. The Monarchists, the Clericals, the adherents of militarism, will now be reinforced by the great employers of labour, who are undoubtedly frightened by the dis- content of the hand-workers, and who think that demon- strations of that discontent should. be repressed at once by the whole force of the State, even if such repression involves bloodshed. The Government is sincerely anxious for a steady majority in the Chamber, and, of course, every new group adds to the difficulty of keeping together that Bloc without which in France it is nearly im- possible to make the action of Parliament coherent and continuous. While, however, we recognise the misfortune, we do not think the effect of recent movements upon the General Election now at hand will be so great as it is in this country the fashion to believe. The strikes scarcely affect the peasantry at all, and the peasants can, and, as we suppose, will, return a majority to the Chamber differing very little from that which at present exists. They are much divided in feeling from the artisans of the cities, and even from the miners. They rather deprecate the demand for higher wages, which, as they see, will make all things dearer ; while their permanent political tendencies separate them altogether from the Opposition. They are devoted to the Republic, which, as they think, probably with justice, furnishes a guarantee against that andel& regime which they still regard with traditional horror, against oppression by the rich, and against war, which they dread with a repugnance that strikes outsiders with a certain amazement,—it is so strongly opposed to the ancient temper and. history of France. (It is derived probably from incidents of French barrack life, which only those who have passed through the military mill can fully appreciate.) They may in one or two provinces be greatly influenced by the priests, but the whole political history of the last thirty-five years proves that the Church has lost her power over the electors, and. there is nothing in the Separation Law of itself to re-establish it. The peasants love the Republic, which they are aware they rule ; and they know per- fectly well that the Opposition, if successful, must end either in a Monarchy or in a, military tyranny. Nor can we believe that even the artisans and miners, terribly discontented as they are with their economic position, can be opposed to the Republic, or to the Radicalism of those politicians who, since the entrance of M. Clemenceau into the Ministry, are supposed to direct its course. Neither Clericals, nor Nationalists, nor mili- tarists will give the workers higher wages or display greater toleration for their new habit of combining. Indeed, the reactionaries of all kinds are avowedly opposed. to all "Socialistic ideas," and angry with the Government for its unwillingness to put down demonstrations by force. The workers see that under the present Administration they are not shot down for collecting in crowds, and. that the Government endeavours rather to maintain order by accumulating irresistible force in the most disturbed districts. M. Clemenceau is ridiculed for sending thirty thousand soldiers to keep order among a few thousand. miners, but the miners are apt to see that this is a very merciful method. They have all themselves passed through the military mill, and, like most soldiers, are greatly im- pressed by visible superiority of numbers. It comes, there- fore, to this, that the Opposition has gained through the strikes and their treatment a moderate number of important votes, while the Government retains the confidence of the masses. Now in a General Election it is the masses who seat the candidates,—precisely the fact which in Great Britain the Protectionists recently forgot. With In regime of universal suffrage, if the Opposition has not won the peasantry or the body of the operatives, it has won nothing which on the day of election will give it any serious assistance.
We shall be told, however, that we are omitting one serious factor in the situation. Is it not true that whenever the "Red -Spectre" stalks abroad France seeks safety in some kind of dictatorship ? and will not all these menaces from below, from strikers, from Socialists, and from anti- militarists, call that Spectre once more into evidence ?
Châteaux have been burnt, machines have been destroyed, mining engineers would have been murdered but for the protection of the soldiers. Is there not here all the material which produces that flight of terror-stricken rumours which in France overthrows Governments as a cyclone overthrows elms?' We think not. France has learned much since 1870, and can now distinguish between riot and revolution. Property having been protected by the Republic for thirty-five years, there is a general confidence that it will continue to be protected. The very collection of such a mass of troops in the mining district is, to French eyes, clear evidence of that. The demands of the strikers, moreover, are not directed against property. It is not the rich who are cursed, but the employers ; not a gcneral division which is asked for, but a few more francs a week for the toilers, and some reduction of hours which, as they are at present arranged, would seem to English employers a little too long. No doubt there is alarm in Paris, where the desire for more liberal wages is so wide- spread that even the jewellers' employes, of all human beings, have combined for a strike which alarms the police, who know that jewels tempt all Frenchmen, and where, owing to the historic record of the city, even a strike has some of the effect of a descent into the streets. But the only effect of the alarm has been so to strengthen the garrison that a rising is practically impossible. M. Clemenceau, that is, shows himself as competent to"hold down" Paris as any military dictator. He will kill fewer people ; but the well-to-do in Paris, to do them justice, are not wishing for massacre, but for order and safety for their savings. France has still, it is true, to pass through May 1st, the "sacred day of Labour" on the Continent, but as yet there is no proof that the electors of France are looking round for a saviour of society. They certainly have not got one in their eye. There is not a man in France whose personal rule is desired by great sections of the people. The Bourbons are, so to speak, forgotten, the natural head of the Bona- partists is lightly regarded, and there is not even an imita- tion Boulanger visible within the horizon. The Republic seems to be unassailable even by an emotion.
Englishmen ought to come to this conclusion with great pleasure. The Republic has always meant peace, because every Republican has known instinctively that while un- successful war would involve the destruction of the regime, successful war would throw up a Gezieral who, even if he respected Republican forms, would claim all power ; and just now it is more peaceful than ever. It is standing on the defensive against the greatest Army in the world. It longs for allies ; it has made close friends of the Latin Powers ; it is cordial even with England, the "hereditary enemy " ; and it is this week paying huge sums to Russia in order that the Dual Alliance may not be broken off. Grant that this attitude is accidental, being due in part at least to the restless pride of a single man, and still we may take it for certain that the overthrow of the Republic from above would be the beginning of a time of dangerous unrest, while its overthrow from below would probably be followed by a sympathetic outburst in every country in Europe except Great Britain. One must be a bigoted Tory to want that. Whatever the defects of the French Republic, its existence suspends the military ambitions which for so many centuries have made of France the " suspect " of Europe.
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