TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE PROGRESS OF EVENTS. THE air is a little clearer all round. We would warn our readers earnestly against the growing habit of believing the telegrams of each day as if they stood alone, or could contain anything but accounts of momentary in- cidents in dramas which may take years to display them- selves fully; but still when the blue appears it is a hopeful sign of the weather. It seems to be admitted on all hands that Germany, whatever her real relation to Russia—and we may estimate by the Polish incident of the week the amount of instinctive affection felt by the German for the Slav—has accepted the British policy in China, and is content for the present that all ports should remain open to all the world. That will not prevent her from spreading her authority over the Hinterland of Kiao- chow, or taxing her Chinese subjects to provide the ex- penditure necessary to make a Hong-kong of that port, an expenditure which, we see, already frightens the German Parliament ; but it will prevent her from linking herself with Russia and France to shut out British trade. The Russian pressure at Pekin has, therefore, become lighter, and there is a fair prospect that after a decent interval China may accept the British terms. Russia and France alone are no match for Great Britain and Japan in the North Pacific, and while France is interested only through her general pledges to her ally, Russia, whatever her ultimate plans, can afford to wait for their realisation. She wants to finish her railway and make herself safe in Manchuria before she claims Ta]ienwan, or endeavours to monopolise the trade of North China, and she will, we can hardly doubt, upon consideration allow English commercial policy to prevail for a few more years. The concession will not hurt her till she is ready, it will allow supplies to accumulate in Port Arthur, and it will not, we suspect, reduce her influence in Pekin so much as is anticipated. The Chinese know too much of the dreadful Empire which borders their own for so many hundred miles, which is breaking their traditional influence over the Tartar tribes, and which is rolling decade by decade steadily nearer to the very gates of Pekin. Russia can wait, and we think will wait, and as there is much to do before we are ready, and as we must ultimately compromise with Russia whether we like it or not, the waiting is all to our advantage. Granting even that "war must come sooner or later," we had rather it should be later, for we are scarcely ready, and time may bring us unexpected allies. China is not dead yet if her dynasty is, and as we have so frequently said, we find it hard to believe that a fourth of the human race, conscious of its unity, and already bound in an organisation which for many purposes is strong, has lost for ever the power of striking a blow in its own defence.
The shadows are lifting also in India. We are not able, it is true, to believe Lord George Hamilton's couleur-de-rose accounts of Indian finance. It is simply impossible that the Treasury should be prosperous ; and we know too well that when the military authorities of the Empire wish to defend a war, whether past or to come, that war is always represented as having been, or to be, a comparatively cheap affair. What was the amount of their "miscalculation" for Lord Lytton's Afghan War? Still, it is evident that Sir James Westland sees his way to gain time, and time just now is of the last importance. Monsoons will not always fail; plague in Bombay will become endemic, like malarious fever in Calcutta ; and the expectation of misfortune to the Raj which has periodically fretted the native mind, and which is intensified just now by a total solar eclipse, will pass away as it did in 1858. The Frontier War, too, that extraordinary blunder which we cannot but attribute in great measure to accidental local incompetence—we change the governing power in India, civil and military, on an average every four years, andsometimes find ourselves in what is locally described as "a weak term "—shows every sign of dying down. Most of the Army has been demobilised, the troops still in motion are unopposed, and the old men of the clans have evidently reflected and are inclined to pause. They have suffered a good deal, they are tired of what is to them a big game, and for their over-ener 1 - getic sons they have an odd but most attractive outlet, service with their late opponents in the field. In the very middle of the war the clansmen have been offering recruits who make excellent soldiers, and who under ordinary circumstances, when there is no fever fit of Ghazeeism running like a fire through the hills, will be just as faithful as Ghoorkas or Sikhs, and a very good counterpoise to those useful warriors. Moreover, the Government, like the clansmen, has become reflective, and has decided that the mountaineers had better be let alone. Lord George Hamilton in his speech of Wednes- day told his hearers that we must have this, that, and the other, influence on the Frontier, obedience at times, open passes into Afghanistan—' Open passes,' mutters the fierce tyrant at Cabul ; ' H'm. Yes, for my traders, but for British troops I am not so sure '—but he also says the clans must be left absolutely to govern themselves, which means non-interference. Altogether, we do not believe in that fresh war in spring, and do believe that India is to have a little respite, during which she may finish her rail- ways, decide what she really means t.o do about currency, whether it is to be gold, or paper, or a , fatter rupee, and find, by the miracle of good luck which Las so frequently redeemed her fortunes, a Peer who can yeally govern. Time is needed for all these great improvemt.'4'(:- and we are evidently to have time. cy in That is all satisfactory, and there is somethiLby boLe satisfactory still, on which we must dwell for a moL hal. because it is so often overlooked. The English people, it' the long run, govern the Empire as well as themselves, and they have displayed during the last few months an extraordinary amount of courage and strong sense. They have never for one moment given way to panic. When things looked at their blackest the price of Consols never so much as quivered, nor has there once been an alarmist public meeting. During the whole of the melancholy period at the beginning of the Frontier War, when every day brought news of wasted lives, and of repulses concealed under the euphemistic name of "retirements," the electors not only showed no disposition either to abandon the Fron- tier or to rush the Frontier, but suppressed in the most creditable way the fatal disposition to censure Generals who have not secured immediate victory. There was a momentary disposition to scold when the Pioneer published some severe criticisms, intended in reality to defend the Simla group, but it passed away almost in a moment. The people have, in fact, tranquilly waited for the end, quite confident that their agents, successful or unsuccess- ful, would do their very best to secure ultimate success. They have, moreover, shown even greater sense in another direction. We were horribly afraid, we confess, when Kiao-chow was seized, that the British people, which, as a. Governor of Java once said, "thinks it has a right to de whole world and de moon," would insist upon the seizure of large slices of China as its share in the coming partition. On the contrary, it decided with perfect coolness that it did not want any more territory just now, that it would. not be bothered with Chinese subjects, and that all it desired was freedom of trade; and when the Government also announced that decision, supported it by an informal plebiscite. England would fight if need were, but not to rule Chinese. That is, in our judgment, the most hopeful sign that has been displayed for years, for it shows that even in an era of rapid expansion our people can keep their heads, and are aware that they must not undertake the government of mankind. They are not in a fury of jealousy because Russia gets something or Germany, but if only trade is left free can reflect quietly that they own a fifth of the world already, and find their big estate quite as much of a burden as a luxury. That is sense, and while Englishmen remain sensible there is no fear for their future. The fear is that their astounding energy will overpower their capacity of self-control.
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