A Choice of Risks r ORD CECIL has begun admirably
to make use of 1 his freedom from office. As we read what he said about disarmament in his address to the General Council of the League of Nations Union on Friday, October 21st, we feel that he had an implicit desire to prove to other nations that his resignation from the Government must not be taken as a sign that the League 'of Nations is becoming a party question. The resolutions which he moved, and which were passed unanimously, had the sanction of members of all political parties; Moreover, the resolution moved by Professor Gilbert Murray (Welcoming the disarmament resolutions carried at the Eighth Assembly of the League) expressed "satisfaction with the share taken by H.M. Government in bringing about unanimous adoption of the resolutions."
A few weeks ago there was some danger that the supporters of the League here would become so divided that for praatical purposes Liberals and members of the Labour Party would not admit that Unionists were friends of the League at all. That danger has passed. In the main it was removed by the , refreshing breezes of candour and friendliness which blew through the Eighth Assembly—in many Ways the most remarkable Assembly which has yet been held. It is agreed that a division of the friends of the League into pro-Protocol- ists and anti-Protocolists would be disastrous. But whether we are against the Protocol or for it, we have to keep the Government up to the mark. This is not necessarily to imply any condemnation of the Govern- ment ; no Government -can adopt a bola foreign policy unless it is confirmed in it by a majority of the nation. The. League of Nations Union could not possibly do a greater service during its coming campaign than to broaden its already great influence and make it plain to the Government that if there is one matter upon which most Englishmen have made up their minds, it is that they do not mean to have another great war and will not tolerate any risk of it.
Much hangs upon that word " risk." We are con- tinually being told that Great Britain risks this and risks _-that when she accepts some obligation under the League. We are told that the risks accepted to-day are such as would have been rejected at sight by the wise and patriotic statesmen of an earlier day, and that it is almost incredible that Unionist Ministers should now lightly place the destinies of the Empire in pawn. All this must sdund very alarming to anyone who has .not grasped- the simple truth that events have ,so hedged us in with - risks :that we cannot extricate ,ourselves without passing through risks, of some sort. it- -is simply a question of "'choosing between the risks. If Europe ,does no more than has yet been done to rontlair war;., another war is inevitable: Within,-.a few .years it will be said that- the-Covenant has failed. to save us, that the attempts at Locarno and elsewhere to implement its principles into a working scheme have one after the other been disappointments, and that there is nothing for it but to return to the " good old rule, -the simple plan " of a Balance of Power.
That is only another way of saying that an armed truce which will impoverish every nation is to alternate with occasional great wars which will exterminate some of the nations taking part in them, and complete the financial ruin of all the others. Being of a cautious turn of mind, we probably dislike risks as much as most people ; but when we are offered a choice between the risk involved in the Balance of Power and the risk involved in accepting experimental obligations under the League (in order that international law may gradually become a substitute for the appeal to arms), we cannot hesitate which risk to choose. Ploughing the sands is a proverbial example of sterile labour, but it would become utterly outclassed in the category of futile enterprises by the policy of searching our pockets for the last penny in order that we may prepare for bank- ruptcy or annihilation.
Experimentation in the machinery of peace has so far shown that disarmament depends upon security. Men will. not disarm themselves—and they can hardly be blamed—until they have a reasonable guarantee that they will be safe. It is therefore most important to take things in their right order.- " First things must come first." The Eighth Assembly declared that the principal condition of success in the policy of disarma- ment is that no State should be left to provide for its security entirely by means of its own armaments. This means that a practical scheme must be drawn up for organizing collective action by the League in case of need. Here is a matter on which the British Govern- ment ought to come to a decision. What arc they willing to do ? They ought to say something. It does not help to be silent.
Another necessary condition of disarmament, as laid down by the Assembly, is that the practice of arbitration should grow. Here we are faced at once with the question whether the British Government ought to sign the famous optional clause—the clause which would commit us to accept compulsory arbitration from the Permanent Court of International Justice. " Juris- diction " would no doubt be a more accurate word than " arbitration " in this case, but whichever phrase we use the point -at issue is the same. Germany has signed the optional clause, but. Great Britain has so far refused. One of the resolutions passed by the General Council of the League of Nations Union on Friday, October 21st, asked the Government to sign the clause ." with any reservations that may be necessary to provide for the special position of this country." Mr. Lloyd Georgc thinks-that no reservations are • necessary. It was -wise, however, of the General Council not to prejudge the question. We hope that an early opportunity will be found in Parliament to discuss this matter. The public haS heard far too 'little about it. If a German who disbelieVes in British sincerity in regard to the League were asked to give his reasons, he would put high on the list the refusal to sign the optional 'clause. • Another means of expanding the practice of arbitra- tion, wisely recommended by the General Council, is the negotiation of " all-inclusive " arbitration agreements between- Great Britain and as many civilized nations as will become partners with her.
The satisfying of these conditions will require- much industry and ardour ; but the GoVernment which does satisfy them will win a most honourable place in history. May it be a Unionist Government ! When this poliey has been carried far enough,. general disarmament, which • now looks quite baffling, will become relatively easy.
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