LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Still time in Ulster

From Lord Monson Sir: There is still just time to avert the grim scenario predicted for Ulster by the experienced observers Patrick Cosgrave interviewed there (November 25), provided intelligent heed is taken of the legitimate fears and suspicions of the British-orientated majority. These suspicions — only fractionally mollified by Eire's belated moves against the IRA — have been accentuated partly by political errors of judgement and partly by the insensitivity and lack of sympathy manifested by the bulk of supposedly informed opinion in Britain: both helping to push the now bitter majority into the arms of extremists. (The Republicanorientated minority's legitimate fears are well on the way to being remedied, underpinned as their interests have been all along by substantial political and journalistic support.) Apart from the ever-present physical risks shared by both communities, the majority's littleappreciated political fears include: (1) The long-standing emotional commitment to a United (Republican) Ireland — comparable almost to nineteenth-century philhellenism — shared by certain prominent Socialists likely to play an influential role in the next Labour government: a commitment that antedates by many decades Labour's current belated provisos about "consent," "safeguards " and "prior reform in the South."

(2) The astonishing diminution of traditional, unashamed national pride (what the Left would call jingoism) within the Conservative Party, or at least its leadership — inconceivable even a few years ago. Compare Mr Heath's unenthusiastic-sounding: "If the majority wish to remain within the United Kingdom, their wish will be respected" with Winston Churchill's impassioned tribute to Ulster's loyalty and her vital role as part of the United Kingdom during World War II; and ponder the implications.

(3) The failure of any Westminster political party to object publicly to that section of the Republic's constitution which makes blatant — and by definition hostile — territorial claims upon 5,459 square miles of the United Kingdom. It is left to the Northern Ireland Labour Party, and to Dr Conor Cruise O'Brien from the South, to condemn the offending clauses in suitably robust terms.

(4) Certain legislative and administrative decisions taken by the present Government, including:

(a) An excessive concern with supposed 'public opinion' abroad, as evidenced by recent ministerial pronouncements and above all by the consultations held with foreign ambassadors prior to the Army's dismantling of the Londonderry barricades. An unusual gesture for a sovereign state coping with internal disturbances; and one which conflicted with that section of the 1969 Downing Street Declaration which states that "responsibility for affairs in Northern Ireland is entirely a matter for domestic jurisdiction . . the United Kingdom will assert this principle in all international relationships." Any deviation from this principle, albeit for the best of motives, will not satisfy Massachusetts senators, Libyan dictators, Maoist students in Uppsala or Falangist journalists in Madrid, who want only the instant incorporation of the North into the Republic: it will, however, intensify unionist fears of some form of eventual sell-out at the behest of the United States or United Nations.

(b) The refusal to contemplate withdrawing the anomalous and unreciprocated right of citizens of the Republic to vote in British general elections, despite the responsibly formulated case advanced by the Bow Group-inclined Federation of University Conservatives, who saw it as the essential quid pro quo for the abolition. of Stormont (which they like The Spectator favoured), and de;pite public opinion in Britain. On the retention or withdrawal of such anomalies the whole future of Ulster could hinge.

(c) An apparent resolve to evaluate the results of each successive referendum on the Border issue on a simple majority basis. While superficially reasonable (although respectable precedents exist for requiring a more substantial majority before major constitutional changes within a nation or institution are conceded), this would in practice prove both unfair and unwise, for two reasons: (i) the eventual removal of interim restrictions on free movement of labour within the EEC is likely to result in a gradual emigration of Republican Irish to the North in search of better jobs and benefits; (ii) the undisputed fact that the birthrate of the Catholic minority in the North is the highest in Western Europe — higher by far than in Italy, Spain or the Republic itself, for instance.

As nobody can guarantee conclusively that a third of the Catholic population will persist with their present support for the Union fifteen years hence, these two factors combined could theoretically produce a referendum result which forced Ulster into the Republic against the wishes of every single Protestant in the Province — an even surer recipe for a bloodbath than the UDI cited by Mr Heath. Furthermore, to unite Ireland on this basis would be highly distasteful in theory to the three major political parties in the Republic — according to their published sentiments on the subject — and certainly in practice. It would additionally be an immoral and unfair outcome, in that a fortuitous accident of demography would negate the entire raison d'être of the Northern Irish state as an enclave, embracing only 17 per cent of the island's land area, within which the pro-British 25-30

per cent of Ireland's inhabitants, Gaelic neither in origins nor aspirations and mainly though by no means exclusively Protestant, could maintain their way of life together with — and this is factual not rhetorical — their centuriesold link with Britain and allegiance to the Crown.

(5) Despite their pretension; of internationalism, the progressive intelligentsia's indulgent tolerance towards most non-British nationalisms, including paradoxically certain right-wing ones (and what could be more essentially ' bloodand-soil ' right-wing than the " ne'ermore shall sinful Saxon symbols sully the sacred soil of Erin !" sentiments that inspire the IRA?) This largely explains the vaguely pro-Republican bias found in certain influential sections of the British news media (e.g. Sunday Times).

(6) All such bias reinforces in turn a growing sourness in England (the Scots and Welsh understand the problem better) towards Ulster's inhabitants generally. Sad, and unmerited, because as Mr Cosgrave testifies, the overwhelming mass of decent Ulster people are maintaining an admirable cheerfulness and fortitude in a situation comparable to London's during the Nazi V2 offensive.

During the same fifty years that the Northern Irish state has been in existence, most of the world has been racked by various national, ethnic, religious, linguistic or cultural conflicts. Even leaving aside the Indian subcontinent and all of Africa, and ignoring the Second World War years, communal violence has occurred in such diverse locations as Quebec. Detroit, the Deep South, Brittany, the Basque country, Catalonia, Belgium, Saarland, the South Tyrol, Trieste, Danzig, the Sudetenland, most of the Balkans, Anatolia, Cyprus and Palestine. Having the rare good fortune to live on a secure and overwhelmingly homogeneous island, the average Englishman has forgotten most of these clashes (Palestine apart) and in consequence increasingly conceives of the Ulsterman as a being apart, instead of an ordinary man like himself caught up in a difficult but unhappily far from extraordinary situation judged in a worldwide context. The Ulsterman is frightened and angered by this alienation; while the Englishman's dismissive irritation, born of incomprehension, is fed back to the politicians and so completes the vicious circle.

Now even those indifferent or hostile to Ulster's majority must concede that no solution is remotely possible without their consent, if only a grudging consent: so how can these suspicions be allayed?

Perhaps firstly, by more frequent visits to Ulster by Westminster politicians, especially if coupled with declarations that there is nothing shameful or perverse in wishing to remain British: that on the contrary such sentiments are admirable and wholly to be

welcomed. Secondly, by a more balanced and sensitive treatment of majority actions and attitudes by certain organs of the press (radio and television have inv proved considerably in this respect during the past few months). Thirdly, by legislative action t° remove the anomalous right of Irish republicans to influence British election results, and hence political decisions. Fourthly, by an all-party declaration that before any future referendum on the Border (the current Bill covers only the first) the legislation would be so drafted as to provide that the Province would remain part of the United Kingdom unless the majority in each community decided otherwise' Fortunately the Government 'S recent Green Paper apparentlY accepts the validity of this argument by listing as a Pre. requisite of Irish unity, in pare, graph 77, "genuine and freelY given mutual agreement and 011 conditions acceptable to the tinctive (my italics) communiti , es. To classify each voter by coot munity affiliation would be both difficult and distasteful: the re" quired objective could be apProici, mately achieved by stipulating majority of 664 per cent S1 prerequisite ofconstitutioile change — a slightly higher maloti,tY than that effectively required °Yt the 1950 Belgian referendum, lower than that needed for ratific" ation of the recent Anglican' Methodist unity proposals. It cannot be stressed 011,,eeri enough how disastrous it would for the whole of Ireland — 114 merely the North — if unity, we'f to be enforced against the wish 0 TthheoseentoibresesPserd with the pe Bopulaotridoenh; above all else and who fear all.cts proposals would further impede e abolition should reflect upon tht,e,A things. Firstly, the heighten; Protestant goodwill toWer" Catholics throughout Ireland that should flow from the lifting of,th„eet threat of being swamped by 5i:iv weight of numbers might aete'V, speed up rather than retard olli.or This is always on the assurngtflo that considerable changes le place in the South first, l'n!' leads to the second propos1tla:1 namely that a substantial bOeji opinion in the South might lent prefer to maintain the Pre :10, Gaelic, clerical and anti-moner;iity. al ethos, at the expense of tect This would be a perfectly re,st' Ice; able and understandable coe;ive and one which some obiee`til observers consider might be to ah best ultimate interests of e.",5 community. Thirdly, once pea,e;ver retained in perpetuity for whe`f ' reason — need form no more ° ote actual barrier in practice, 110,';ode, of an impediment to of rpi eenr adtsi oh ni p a t hn da n the theclo-gst equoli ' artificial ' frontiers between gium and Holland, or Canada " the United States. In conclusion: once Illejp°crisi suspicions are calmed, the gr form of administration 01, ti Province should become a relfoit ly less controversial matter th ever, pessimists should 130, tteoiii merits of total integration oh ecre United Kingdom, with full I', 01 sentation at Westminster greater or lesser degree of 1,0 tive or administrative auto olio than Scotland. In an era fav,_° t devolution this may not ideal solution administrative

otherwise it does possess one enormous advantage: within the wider context of Britain as a whole, neither community need ever again fear domination by the other.

Monson House of Lords, London SW1