TOPICS OF THE DAY.
WHAT OF THE NEW YEAR? AN APPEAL TO AMERICA.
WHAT of the New Year ? Is it to be the beginning of better things or is the world to remain in its misery and sink even deeper in the mire ? Who dare give a confident answer ? Certainly we cannot pronounce one which is happy and also firmly founded on reason. Though instinctively we are convinced that we shall yet save ourselves by our own exertions and Europe by our example, we cannot afford positive proof that our optim- ism turns on the poles of truth. We hear an inner voice that is calling " All is well," but we cannot show to others that it is the lively oracle of God and not the wandering echo of some old deception of mankind. But though we dare not pretend to certainty when we lack the rock-bed base of fact we can, at any rate, show whence the light will come if it dawns, and how it will heal and save us if we are not so foolish or so ill-fated as to obscure it with the smoke and fog and darkness of our own creation.
The world is growing poorer and more wretched- i.e., is less and less able to feed and house and clothe itself. Yet there are as many diligent labourers ready to work and weave and till the soil and drive the engines as ever there were. The earth still gives us her harvest and still the raw material of manufacture is abundant and waiting to be turned into the thousand things men need and desire so greatly. There is no difficulty even about the precious metals. There is not only as much treasure, as much gold and silver, in the world as there was before the War, but a good deal more. Practically no bullion was lost, while a great deal of ore was turned into new gold and silver. What, then, is the matter ? Why do the wheels not move ? Why are we so poor in the midst of potential plenty ? Why tarry the wheels of the Chariot of Commerce ?
The answer is mainly psychological. Nations are poor because they cannot trade. They cannot trade because they cannot get credit. They cannot get credit because men have no confidence in the stability of prices. But how can prices be stable if the measuring rod of value is the trick rod of the Harlequinade ? What is a foot on Sunday is a yard on Monday, half a foot on Tuesday, and an inch on Wednesday. That is not trade, but a nightmare.
Well, what is to be done about it ? Commerce, the mechanism of barter, must be stabilized. But can this be done, and, if so, how ? It can be done by an instrument of exchange which does not daily or weekly alter in price—i.e., in degree of value. And this means agreeing on a fixed currency which shall not be altered, either inflated or deflated, by an Act of State. But such an agreement, such a covenant of mutual credit, can only be got if the nations trust each other and believe their relations to each other to be just, or at any rate possible, and so permanent. What does all this mean when put into practice in such a world as exists to-day ? How can we attain to agreement and mutual confidence ? What is the road by which we can reach this relative Paradise ? The first step on the way is the settlement of the problem of Reparations. Till Germany knows exactly what she will have to pay, and knows also that it is not more than she can pay without ruin, she will never be able to place herself in a posture to pay. But unless this is quickly settled she will permanently adopt the non possumus attitude. But what is it that in the last resort prevents France coming to a reasonable agreement as to what Germany is to pay, and helping to put her debtor, who is, in a sense, her trade partner, into a position which will enable her to live and yet pay the damages awarded by the International Jury ? Till the exact and final amount of the Reparation payments is fixed and made irrevocable, and so has become an incen- tive to effort on the part of the debtor, there can be no recovery for Germany, or, indeed, for the world.
At the present moment there is no agreement. The Germans feel that they will get a further reduction in the sum to be paid and that this reduction depends upon the degree of helplessness, misery, desperation and degra- dation to which they can manage to reduce themselves. Thus runs the argument :—" The more dreadful the state of things in Germany the less will be the sum fixed for her to pay " ; but the more certain and the more rapid must be her descent to Avernus.
How, then, is an agreement on the maximum sum for Reparations to be reached ? It can best be reached, perhaps can only be reached, by a preliminary agreement in regard to International Indebtedness. Not till that problem has been solved can we approach that of Repara- tions with any hope of success. How is the difficulty of the Debts to be met ? Our plan is as simple as it is honest. To put it plainly, we suggest that when Mr. Stanley Baldwin reaches Washington he should at once make it clear to all concerned that he has come to pay and not merely to talk about paying. What he has to do is, like a bank official, to ask his hosts how they would like to take it. That, however, would primarily be a matter not for the British Government and people but for their creditor. It is for the Americans, not. the British, to propose the plan for funding our debt to them which would suit them best, while at the same time causing as little inconvenience as may be to the money markets of the world.
What that plan will be we do not profess to know. We can only feel sure that, coming from the American Governin;..nt, it will be businesslike and will not involve any dangerous call on the world's gold. When the funding has been accomplished and our debt is in process of being paid, we should, in our opinion, say something like this to the United States :- " Now that we have placed ourselves in the position which you have hitherto occupied alone, that of a creditor nation, we have a proposition to make to you. We want you to help us to put the world of commerce straight. We know that you cannot under your system of Govern- ment undertake to make Alliances, and that you dread diplomatic entanglements, and therefore we do not propose anything of the kind. We know, however, that you want, as much as we do, to help right the economic balance, to make the world once more a safe place to trade in, and above all that you want to abate the miseries of Central Europe. You, like us, are owed large sums of money by the Allied Powers. You, like us, know that a settlement of this indebtedness must be arrived at before we can finally solve the even more difficult problem of Reparations. We ask you to help us with advice in the latter case, and with joint action in the former. We want you to help us to ascertain through a just and impartial inquiry what is the amount which Germany can pay France without being ruined, and we want you to help also in propounding the necessary scheme of payment. Next, we want you, in company with us, to put the proposal both as to the amount and as to the method of payment before France and to tell her that if she will accept the scheme we will cancel her debt. At the same time we will, on similar terms, cancel the debts due from Italy. Further, we propose to promise France that if she is attacked by Germany we (the British people) will come to her assistance. We know the difficulties that America would encounter in undertaking any such obligation, but we suggest that your Govern- ment should virtually, if not formally, recognize our promise, and make it clear how you would view any attempt on the part of Germany to disturb the peace of the world, and that you should, in particular, fore- shadow the economic measures which they would take should Germany attack France. If these things were done America and Britain could then suggest a system of international legal tender which would at once allow exchange to begin again on a sound basis between the countries of the world."
What would America say to such a proposal ? We trust and believe that she would say " Yes," and add : " You have shown that you are prepared to do your part, and that you recognize the sanctity of a contract. We are prepared to do ours. We realize the difficulties of France and we want to help her, provided she will help herself and not set the universe on fire in a panic."
We appeal to America to make answer in this spirit, and so help herself as well as us and France and the rest of Europe. We are sure that if once the American People come to see the situation in its true light they will agree.
Shall we ask in vain if we ask the great organs of Publicity that sound their daily horns of warning from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific to put this appeal before their millions of eager readers and to tell them as only they have a right to tell them : " The hour has come. The world waits. Your duty is to
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