THE ELECTION
POLLING THE PUNDITS
. . . and a competition to predict the composition of the next Parliament
BEFORE the general election campaign began, the Spectator asked 59 political journalists to predict the result. Most though not quite all of these journalists are members of the parliamentary Lobby. They were also asked to divulge how they themselves would vote. The poll was car- ried out by Harris Research between Mon- day and Friday the week before last.
A very high proportion of the journalists (49 out of the 59) predicted an overall Conservative majority. Of these, the great- er number, 31, thought the majority would be between 20 and 59 seats:
Size of Number of majority voters Not specified 5 0-19 1 20-39 10 40-59 21 60-79 4 80-99 4 100-119 3 120-149 1 The other ten journalists were extremely uncertain of the outcome, although no- body predicted an out right Labour vic- tory. Two said it was possible that Labour would gain the largest number of seats without having an overall majority. Only two out of the ten made a definite predic- tion of a hung Parliament: most of the others thought a small Conservative major- ity and a hung Parliament were of equal likelihood.
When asked to disclose their own voting intentions, correspondents' reactions varied widely. A surprising number, eight of the 59, claimed not to have decided, while a third, not so surprisingly, refused to say. Of those who did declare a choice, about twice as many named the Alliance as the other two main parties combined: Voting intentions Conservative 7 Labour 8 Liberal/SDP Alliance 14 Green Party 1 Refused to say 20 Won't vote 1 Don't know 8
We then asked a number of political columnists, most of whom had not partici- pated in the pool of Lobby correspondents, to give us their attributable predictions of the election result. Mr Hugo Young of the Guardian refused: 'No, I just think it's a mug's game and I'm not prepared to come out with egg all over my face. I'm sorry to chicken out.' Mr Alan Watkins of the Observer thinks the Conservatives will be the largest party, but that there will be a hung Parliament. He says Labour will come second and the Alliance will hold the balance of power. Mr T. E. Utley of the Times predicts that the Tories will win by an absolute majority, but will he 'surprised and delighted if it is more than 50'. Mr Peregrine Worsthorne, editor of the Sun- day Telegraph, says there will be a Tory majority of 20. Mr Malcolm Rutherford of the Financial Times believes 'the Con- servatives will win quite easily' with a majority of 100 or over. He thinks the Alliance may come up at the end of the campaign, but that as they started at a higher point than last time they may not. Mr George Gale of the Daily Mail expects a comfortable Tory majority, not so large as at the 1983 election but about the same as or better than the 1979 results, so round about the 100-seat mark.
And now see if you can beat the pundits at their own game . . . .
Previous page
