IMPENDING OFFENSIVES
APRIL may be-said to have brought spring and the opening of the campaigning-season in Europe. Great events are unquestionably pending, and they may determine the whole issue of the war, for if the coming German offensive in Russia is defeated it is unlikely that Germany will ever be in a position to launch another. The omens are in Russia's favour if the northern sea-route can be kept open—this week's German attacks on a large convoy bound for Murmansk are a reminder of the perils of the passage—and increasing numbers of aeroplanes and tanks be sent from here and America. That the Russian armies will give some ground is probable enough. That, no doubt, is the right strategy. Russia can stand wastage better than Germany, and gain or loss of territory is not the prime consideraion pro- vided that centres vital to the conduct of the war are not lost. The Russians' desire to see the pressure on them relieved by the opening up of a second front elsewhere is natural enough, but one of the chief obstacles to any such operation in the west is the strain on our shipping imposed by the transport of supplies to Russia itself. Libya, moreover, may soon supply all the second front that could be asked for. The campaigning season Is nearing its end there, as it is just beginning in eastern Europe, and the present lull in the desert war cannot continue many days longer. Both sides have long communications, both have been considerably reinforced, though Rommel would be far better off than he is but for the activity of British naval units against Tripoli-bound convoys in the Mediterranean. The capital question In Libya is whether this time either army can inflict a decisive defeat on the other, instead of simply driving it a hundred miles east or west.
