Ireland—the Next Step
TILE extent of the victory which has been won by Mr. de Valera in the Irish Free State has been concealed under Proportional Representation. Under the British sys- tem of voting the President would have swept the country ; the result would have been described as a " landslide." As it is, Fianna Fail has secured an independent majority of one over all other parties combined in the Dail, and the support of Labour will give a majority of 17. It should be reMembered that government by a slender margin of superiority has been the rule in the Free State, and has proved more workable than it would in this country. The support of the Labour Party will still be important to Mr. de Valera, but it will not be so indispensable as in the last Dail ; and the mere fact that his following is not merely the largest group, but outnumbers all others together, is a moral asset which no one can ignore. Mr. de Valera has appealed to the country, and the country has unmistakably declared for him.
The victory cannot be explained away by attributing it merely to shrewd tactical judgement on Mr. de Valera's part. It is true that he chose his time wisely in appealing to the country at the moment when the constitutionalist elements were beginning to plan a common front, and he caught them before they were ready. It is also true that the steep decline in foreign trade resulting from the tariff struggle with England, though it had already caused heavy losses to tradesmen in the towns and to large farmers, had not yet been severely felt by the smaller workers on the land. But no explanations of this kind are sufficient to account for so overwhelming a victory. The masses of the people who have not yet forgotten their ancient distrust of England, and know nothing of econo- mics, have once again fallen under the spell of the erstwhile leader of the Republican movement, and have believed him when he said that England was to blame for all their troubles. It is likely enough that even if the distress had been more widely and deeply felt, Mr. de Valera, in the present mood of the people, would still have been the chosen spokesman of their discontent, the acceptable leader of a campaign for liberty which he persuades them has not yet been won.
Throughout the contest British public opinion, as ex- pressed on the platform or in the Press, has been judiciously unimpassioned and detached, though it was naturally hoped that the party which favoured the Treaty and association within the Empire would win the day. But the position now is, at least, perfectly clear. It is idle to talk about the instability of Mr. de Valera's majority and the forces which on some future date may favour Mr. Cosgrave. Mr. de Valera has won outright. He is the only leader who is able to speak for Ireland. And it is with him alone that a settlement can be made— a real settlement which will lay the ghost of Ireland's grievances. The record of the last year has shown that he is by no means an easy man to negotiate with ; but it is at least reassuring to know that this obstinate and difficult man is by principle and instinct a lover of peace, and there is no reason to doubt his sincerity when h-! declares his wish to be on terms of friendship. with Great Britain. Moreover, the position is now much clearer than it was. There can be no longer any question of letting down Mr. Cosgrave or of doubting Mr. de Valera's right to speak for Southern Ireland, The general election has settled all that. The President has secured his mandate ; he is the only man with whom an agreement can be made that will be held binding.
Now there are certain measures that he has pledged himself to take which, though we are legally entitled to object, it would be folly to resist. It would be contrary to all the principles for which this country has stood in recent years if we attempted to withhold from Southern Ireland any right of self-government which her people as a whole demonstrably desired. If the Free State is resolved on the abolition of the Oath of Allegiance and the Governor-Generalship, nothing can be done here to prevent it. If Mr. de Valera should go further still and demand the establishment of a Republic and complete separation from the British Empire, a more difficult situation would arise. The British Commonwealth of Nations does not admit of unwilling membership, but the Treaty of 1921 is still valid and it cannot be denounced unilaterally. Since its fundamental clauses provide the only basis on which Ireland can re-establish her old relationship with this country or retain any hope of future unity, the position of the British Government must be that the Treaty remains a Treaty still. That in no way precludes subsequent revision by agreement.
But it may be doubted whether Mr. de Valera has any wish for such drastic courses. Even in December, 1921, he was 'advocating what he called " external association " with the British Empire, and to-day he is not indifferent to the fiscal advantages which this country can offer him. As for the annuities, this, after all, is a matter of cash. adjustment, and if the objections to Empire arbitration are insuperable, common sense suggests that the question should be referred to the Hague or to any other disinter- ested tribunal. More formidable by far is the issue which was again and again put in the forefront in the electoral campaign, and for which there is likely to be cease- less agitation in the months to come—that for the inclusion of 'Ulster in a single Irish State. That is the ideal which has never been lost sight of by either of the parties in the Free State, and it is the object passionately desired by the most earnest adherents of Mr. de Valera in the South and by the Nationalists in the North.
But here there is no possibility of easy-going com- placence on our part. Whatever we may think of the intransigence of Ulster in the past, it is unthinkable that we should bring any pressure to bear on her to enter the Free State against her will. That is a point of honour on which this country would be unshakeable. None the less, we arc far from regretting the desire of the Southern Irish for national unity. The partition is unnatural, uneconomic, and contrary to the nobler aspiration of the people. Irishmen should not despair of attaining their ideal of union, but they should clearly envisage the means. The majority of Northern Ireland is intent not merely on remaining within the Empire, but on living in whole-hearted amity and co-operation with Britain. When the people of Southern Ireland, acting through Mr. de Valera or any other, are willing to settle in friendly spirit the questions in dispute with us, to let bygones be bygones, and live on those terms of neighbourliness which we in this country desire, then they will have satisfied the first condition on which Ulster would insist as the preliminary to union. Friendship with England is the indispensable first step towards the unity of Ireland.
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