TOPICS OF THE DAY • THE RUMOURS OF PEACE.
IT would, of course, be absurd to predict the action on which a hypochondriac Czar, who ascended the throne just after a defeat, who was startled and dismayed by the rise of German power, and who is weary with the weight of great affairs, and sad with the loneliness of his position, may ultimately decide, but we confess we feel little confidence in all these rumours of Russian retreat. If Turkey yields, or Europe forbids action, St. Petersburg may retire ; but to fly before the defiance of the Pashas, to break the personal and public pledge given by the Czar to Europe, to his army, and to the Christians of Turkey, to hand over all Southern Slays to the vengeance of the Divan, and to tell all the world that a contest with a fourth-rate Power is too high an emprise for the Russian Empire, is a line of conduct too discreditable for us to believe in its possibility. Nothing whatever has altered in the situation since the order was given to mobilise the Russian Army, and the Czar uttered his celebrated speech at Moscow, except, indeed, that the Porte has declared, in the most curt and sneering terms, that it values the threats of the Romanoffs just as much as their arguments, and will mis- govern their prote'ge's as it pleases, without attention either to their indignation or their sham musters of menacing corps d'arme'e. Turkey has made no concessions. The oppressors of Bulgaria remain unpunished. The Christians of Turkey are as unprotected as ever. Not one of the guarantees on which the Czar pledged himself to insist has been secured, or even promised, except by the issue of an absurd Constitution, which the Czar is not likely to be alone among the statesmen of Europe in professing to believe. Every argument which existed six months ago for coercing Turkey exists now in its full force, and if Russia retreats now, it must be because she never meant to act, and only threatened in order to create an alarm, which the Pashas were too brave, or too astute, or too ignorant to feel. They have bidden Russia open defiance, and the Russian Government, we are told, after picking up the glove, sullenly refuses to enter the lists. We shall believe it, of course, on evi- dence, but we do not believe it yet, and conceive the position of affairs to be in this wise. There is in St. Petersburg, as in England, a strong peace party, which is indisposed to risk the financial losses attendant on war, which regards the attitude of Germany with undying suspicion, and which holds that Turkey, if left to itself, must fall to pieces from the growing demoralisation of its governing class. This party, which may be broadly described as the German party, presses the Emperor to recede, if only the Porte will allow him an apparent success—a "wooden bridge," as the diplomatic slang goes—and the Emperor, who is personally most desirous of peace, listens with pleased attention to the advice, and sometimes utters sentences which induce men extremely desirous to succeed to believe that he has finally decided. Another party, however, which may be broadly described as the Russian party, which includes the Heir-Apparent and the Army, believes that the loss of self-confidence which must follow demobilisation would injure Russia more than a campaign, doubts whether retreat may not be followed by dis- trust in the competence of the dynasty, and is most averse to surrender the last lingering hold of Russia on the confidence of the South S]avonians, who can, if provoked beyond all bearing, find a centre for their aspirations in a rival military dynasty. They therefore press the Emperor to fight, if it be only in Asia, and the Emperor, with six weeks still before him, hesitates, awaits the guidance of events, and probably—though this is only guessed from circumstantial evidence—allows secret negotiations to be carried on in Constantinople, which, in cer- tain contingencies—for example, if a Sultan pressed by the populace applied for aid to Russia—might relieve him alto- gether from his embarrassments. There is no peace in this, but only a protraction of that ultimate decision which will, in all human probability, be ordered by events that have not yet occurred.
That rumours of peace should be accepted with eagerness by the City and by the Foreign Office, we can easily under- stand. The City wants better prices for its bonds and more security for its speculations, and Lord Derby wants an escape, however temporary, from apolitical impasse; but that grave poli- ticians should think such a peace an object to be pursued at all hazards does, we confess, surprise us. Peace just now would be only an armed truce, producing at least three results such as the Conservative party at all events ought to consider dangerous. The Russian Government, in the first place, besides recom- mencing the policy of internal repression necessary to restrain an ebullition of popular discontent, will be restlessly unhappy till it has done some visible thing considerable enough to reha- bilitate it in the eyes of its subjects and the world, and will, as men always do in such circumstances, engage in some enterprise more dangerous than the one from which it shrinks. On the other hand, the Turks, convinced at last by unanswerable evi- dence that all Europe, including Russia, is afraid to restrain them, that they are absolutely free to do as they like, will un- doubtedly indulge themselves with a settlement of the account with the Christians once for all, and probably proceed to ex- tremities which will render European quiescence morally im- possible. The Mahommedans of Bosnia in particular are in a state of fury which nothing but fear can restrain, and if they give reins to their cruelty, Dalmatia, Croatia, and Southern Russia will once more burn with an indignation which neither Hapsburg nor Romanoff can restrain. All Europe is now awake to what goes on in these provinces ; the Turks cannot silence the Americans, even if the British Foreign Office leagues with them to silence the English, and every grand atrocity will be known in Agram and Moscow as soon as in London. The Turks, too, have their score to settle with the Greeks, and great massacres in Candia and Thessaly will not again, though Lord Derby is again in power, be condoned with a cold sentence about the right of the Porte to govern its own subjects. Risings, too, are becoming probable in Constantinople itself, and civil war there, if it only lasted for a day, would end in massacre. And finally, the position of England in its own eyes will be materially changed. Selfish as it seems occasionally to be, this nation has a conscience, and the Russian bugbear once out of the way, that conscience may revive. Once aware that no one now protects the unhappy races whom in 1856 we flung bound at the feet of the Pashas, Englishmen may insist on protecting them themselves, and it is the nature of this country, once aroused, to do its work with a thoroughness which, till it is aroused, it would itself have declared to be possible only to revolutionists. Either from Russian disgust, or Turkish chauviaisme, or English conscience, the Eastern Question will, within six months, be upon us again, and all the process which City men so lament and Conservatives so deprecate will have to be gone through once more, with additional certainty that palliatives are useless, that the cancer must be cut out, that there can be no peace for the world while its fairest and most valuable section is given up to a destructive caste: Meanwhile, the interval will not be peace, but a truce, broken by incessant rumours, by horrible occurrences, and by a far wider spread of the suspicions which already have turned the Continent into a camp. Instead of the march to Roumelia, which, if Austria will but guard Bosnia, might be but a-campaign of six weeks, ending in the enfranchisement of all European. Turkey, except a territory round Constantinople, we shall have a European and Asiatic war, in which the prize will be nothing less than the whole Turkish Empire. Questions like this —of the right of eight millions of European Christians to cease to be slaves—do not end because a pacific Emperor dreads the possible consequences of war; nor will a caste which. has ruled for four hundred years, and which has just been taught that massacre, war, and defiance to Europe are its best weapons, which has put down the insurrection of a vassal State by artillery, quelled a province by sheer slaughter, and beaten all Europe by a sneering refusal to obey its orders, learn in a moment to place its trust in resignation and humility, and the tiresome persist- ence in doing justice which is the basis of civilisation. There is, in truth, no cure for the existing evils in a false peace, and until they are cured no true peace can by possi- bility be obtained. We gravely doubt, in spite of all the rumours, whether the Russian Government will retire ; but if it does, the resolution that Christians shall continue to suffer which this Government will call peace, and describe as the result of its wisdom and ingenuity, will not last through the summer.
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