TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE SITUATION OF TO-DAY.
THERE never was a question upon which verbal con- troversy was so futile as this of the Armenians. There is nothing, in fact, to be controversial about. No person entitled to express an opinion on the facts doubts that the policy of the Sultan includes conduct which is an outrage on civilisation and humanity, and which would justify Europe in dethroning him by force as unworthy to reign over a State which is, and is admitted to be, a European dependency. Controversy as to the right of anybody to commit piracy is in our age imbecile, and the action of the Sultan is more distinctly an offence against the common interest of mankind, and especially of Christian mankind, than any of the historical instances of piracy. Nor, we conceive, does anybody doubt that, as Mr. Gladstone says, Great Britain did pledge herself when she took Cyprus to secure protection for the Armenians, if not for all the Christians of the East, and has therefore the right, if Europe will not move, to move by herself. And we doubt if there are many of us who do not feel that in not moving we are shrinking from an obvious duty because we are afraid of the consequences of doing it. Those facts are not subjects of controversy, but are admitted, the difficulty that worries us all being not a disagreement as to facts, but a perception that recognition of the facts does not help us a step farther forward. Grant that Abd-ul-Hamid is, as Mr. Gladstone so perpetually calls him, an "Assassin," grant that Europe ought to arrest the career of an assassin, grant that England specially pledged herself to prevent the special assassinations which are occurring, grant that England is humiliated almost to dishonour by not fulfilling her pledge—all of which things we fully grant, though we should use other words to describe them—the grand question remains unsolved, What are we to do ? Are we to blow up the house to get at the assassin ? Are we to hurl policemen on soldiers in order to clear a way for the arrest ? Or is there any way in which the end, which it is not only expedient but obligatory to seek, can be attained without serious risk of a struggle in which the assassin might ultimately win the game, and triumphantly proclaiming that there is no law for him, extend in- definitely the area and the horror of his assassinations ?
That is the precise truth of the situation, though it is expressed for once, for obvious reasons, in terms which we dislike as inconsistent with the ways of Englishmen when really at white-heat, and in some ways the situation has not this week been improved. Austria, with its massive though slow-moving armies and its geographical position, is of all the Powers except Russia the one that can do most to defend or to coerce the Sultan ; and Austria has been expressing in the most public way her reluctance to see the status quo disturbed. All that grand display on the Danube means that if Constantinople is threatened Austria will resist, lest Russia should demand a right-of- way across the Danube to Constantinople, and it is so accepted by all the minor States, which, frightened for their independence, turn to the great Power which, as they think, can defend them. Germany could not allow Austria to be crushed, and it looks therefore as if the Triple Alliance were guaranteeing the status quo in Turkey, and therefore permitting Abd-ul-Hamid to work his will. That is bad news for Lord Salisbury, and for those who, like ourselves, have believed that if the crisis arrived the house of Hapsburg would assent to a compromise, and accept a road to the Egean as compensation. That house may take that course still, but undoubtedly pledges given to Roumania and Servia—and there can be no reasonable doubt of pledges having been given to the former State— would be serious difficulties in its way. By going to Salonica„' the Emperor Francis Joseph may say, I sanction the partition of the Balkans, and that means for Roumania and Servia servitude or extinction. I am pledged to prohibit either.'
The one gleam of light comes from the other European combination. There is no proof as yet, and can be none till the Czar's visit to Paris is over, that the Russian Emperor and Lord Salisbury have arrived at any efficacious understanding. All that is certainly known is that they have "conferred" for some hours, and that the chasm between Great Britain and Russia has not in that conference been widened. An impression prevails, how- ever, of that kind which is rarely without foundation,. that the Czar has been convinced at Balmoral of the danger to European order involved in the Sultan's bloodthirsty policy, that he is willing to sanction new efforts to arrest it, and that in consequence the French Government, which has all along watched the massacres- with repugnance, as events which strengthen the hands of both the Clericals and the Radicals in France, has felt itself more free to act at Constantinople. M. Cambon„ too, the French Ambassador there, has been visiting Paris, and has doubtless brought home to M. Hanotaux the true situation in the Turkish capital, which has made a much deeper impression upon Ambassadors whose wives' throats may be cut by Kurds and Lazes, than upon Foreign. Secretaries who are only looking on. He has accordingly returned to his post charged with warnings, has communi- cated those warnings to the Sultan, and has received from that potentate the usual number of promises of reform.. Not one of them will be acted on for any length of time, but it is possible that Abd-ul-Hamid, upon whom all warn- ings produce for the moment a bewildering impression, may pause in his career, may hesitate for a month ta sanction further outbreaks, may even order his lieutenants, if outbreaks occur, to use military force for their re- pression. The pause may be worthless as far as Arme- nians are concerned, for the Sultan's hatred of that unfortunate people is quenchless, but it will give Europe- time to reflect, to study the situation, and to recognise the precipice upon which it stands. Its peace, by its own confession, is at the mercy of a man whose mind is subject to impulses which no European statesman understands, who dare run the most desperate political risks in pursuit of that supreme gratification of an Asiatic, the making his own will executive, and who must either be a fanatic- or penetrated through and through with the belief that the fanaticism of his Mussulman subjects is the rock below his throne. It is exceedingly difficult to believe that cool statesmen, anxious for their own interests and honestly desirous that a cataclysm should be averted, can be blind to the danger involved in such a position, or can fail to see that the only way to avert it is to deprive the man who produces it of his power for evil. Abd-ul- Hamid can at any moment fire the magazine, he is known to like playing with matches, and to have his pockets full of them ; is it probable or possible. that decent policemen, all of them experienced ser- geants, will hesitate to take his explosives away from him ? It seems to us nearly, if not quite, incredible.. The change in the European attitude is all the more probable because France, as we ventured to recom- mend a fortnight ago, has been pushed into the first. place. She will not arouse the jealousies of the Continent as Great Britain would do, and she does not want Con- stantinople as Russia does, yet behind her if she moves. is the whole strength of those two Powers. We think it more than likely that M. Camban, who is said to be a determined man, and who earned during the crisis great credit from all correspondents for his energy and humanity,. may be the agent authorised by all Europe to make the last attempt to preserve the status quo, that his repre- sentations may increase in urgency, and that he may at last be the Ambassador intrusted with the pleasing task of informing Yildiz Kiosk that the alternatives are the deposition of the Sultan or the dismemberment of Turkey.
It will come to that in the end. We do not believe in reformed Pharaohs. The system which allows such a, scene as has been presented for the last eighteen months in Turkey is a system which must be swept away, and it will not be swept away until shells have exploded in Constan- tinople. We agree with Mr. Gladstone that the "Eastern question," the final redistribution of Turkey, is upon us again, and leaves before the Powers of Europe but two alternatives. They can agree upon a peaceful partition, to be carried out, if the Ottomans obtain their just share, by a moderate exertion of force steadily but resistlessly applied from all sides at once, or they can agree to a partition after an exhausting and entirely needless war among themselves, in which a million of men and the surplus revenues of a generation will have been con- sumed together. The diplomatists all say that the second alternative is the one which will certainly be adopted, and they may, being trained experts, prove to have been in the right. Only if they are so proved, let us hear no more for the future of the value of diplomacy, or of Europe being governed by men of great sense and some philanthropy. Asia could not make a worse muddle of its affairs than Europe will have made, or have shed more needlessly more innocent blood.
Previous page
