The Persian Front
Persia is being mentioned with increasing frequency as the possible site for another Russian probe in strength if, as may well be the case, the Korean excursion is intended to be the first of a series. The evidence that something is brewing on this front is derived partly from the sharp accusations which have passed from Moscow to Tehran alleging hostile intentions on the part of the Persian Government, and partly from the bellicose tone of recent broad- casts from Russian stations to and about Persia. But the analogy between Korea and Persia is not exact. The indigenous forces within Persia itself which could be made use of to stage a sponsored revolt have already, during the Azerbaijan insurrection in 1946, proved themselves too weak to resist the forces of the central Government. Even if the Russians have some Kurdish, Armenian or Turcoman legions up their sleeve in Transcaucasia there is no camouflage by which their use could be concealed. Any attack on Persia would be an attack by Russian troops on a State whose integrity is a matter of Western concern ; in other words, such an attack would provoke a general war. But the knowledge that this is the case cannot prevent Persia from being a singularly tempting prize in Russian eyes. In a day or two Russian troops could be on the .Persian Gulf, where they would not now even be met by the stock answer to such a threat—the despatch to Basra of a brigade from the British Army in India. Internally, the Persian economy still creaks with painful maladjustments. A new and reputedly energetic Prime Minister has, it is true, recently come to power in the shape of General Rasmara, lately Chief of General Staff. But he has two handicaps to overcome ; the suspicion which, after the career of the late Reza Shah, inevitably attaches to an energetic soldier in politics, and the belief widely held in Persia that he is backed by the American Embassy. To revitalise her economy Persia is badly in need of capital, and America is about the only available source for capital. But the application of "Point Four" principles in the Middle East needs a great deal of tact if it is not going to defeat its own ends.
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