The Succession to Dr. Briining
POLITICAL convictions must override personal loyal- ties, but it is singularly difficult to conceive what new political convictions or principles can have shaped themselves in the mind of Field-Marshal von Hindenburg so definitely as to lead him to withdraw support from the man to whom, above all others, he owes his- election as President of the German Republic less than two months ago. The enforced resignation of Dr. Bruning is a calamity for Europe, for though the Chancellor's position was becoming almost intolerably difficult, as a result of Hitlerite pressure and the progressive deterio- ration of the economic situation, he was the only man in Germany, apart from the President, who inspired confi- dence in the capitals of the countries with which Germany must negotiate. And Hindenburg himself has been in reality an asset mainly in so far as he demonstrated his political wisdom by supporting his Chancellor firmly through thick and thin. It was the Hindenburg-Bruning combination that impressed foreign observers with Germany's capacity to hold together and maintain internal order in face of all the dissident forces menacing her. The manner in which that combination has been broken inevitably necessitates tome revision of the estimates set on the President's constancy and sagacity, for there seems little doubt that one important factor in his final decision was the insidious effect of a few days' holiday among the Junkers of East Prussia.
Full allowance must be made for the perplexities into which an almost impossibly complicated political situation and an almost insoluble economic situation must have plunged an old soldier unschooled in either politics or economics, and it must be remembered that if the President has no sympathy with Hitlerism he has little more with the Socialists on whom Dr. Bruning has had to depend throughout for his parliamentary majority. The Chancellor has been pressed steadily towards the Right, and the President manifestly did not regret the pressure. The dissolution of the Nazi storm-troops by the Defence Minister, General Groener, followed by a refusal to take similar action regarding the Republican Reichsbanner force—on the reasonable ground that the former was menacing the authority of the State and the latter was not—appears to have been the beginning of the end. It led to General Groener's resignation of the Ministry of Defence, and the Chancellor's own prestige suffered sensibly thereby. The final straw was Dr. Briining's request for the President's signature to a decree imposing fresh taxation and providing, in par- ticular, for the break-up of insolvent estates in East Prussia. Hindenburg, fresh from his stay in that province, refused to sign, and a Chancellor undefeated in the Reichstag had no course open to him but to hand in his resignation to a President who no longer accorded him his confidence.
The new Government under Herr von Papen will be judged by its performance. There is no other criterion to measure it by, for its probable members are men of whom little can be predicted. The incoming Chancellor's appointment is likely to make a curious impression in the United States, for he was expelled from that country for violation of neutrality and attempted sabotage during the War. If the rumoured appointment of General von Schleicher to the Defence Ministry is con- firmed, it means that the intrigue against General Groener has achieved its final success and that an able and highly ambitious man has obtained the advancement he desires, though his ultimate goal still lies ahead. There is no indication that von Papen's Ministry is anything more than a stop-gap affair, though if Hitlerite support can be secured at some price not impossibly high the Govern- ment may, with the President's help, remain in office for some weeks. But it has one very nearly insoluble problem to grapple with at the outset. Not Lausanne ; to go there with a blank negative to everything is simple enough—but the preparation and adoption of a Budget that will balance. President Hindenburg disapproved of Dr. Briining's proposals for raising money. It will be interesting to see to what expedient his successor will turn. A Ministry of the Right will not throw the burden on the well-to-do (so far as there are any), and if it throws it on the workers, or docks the unemployed of their meagre benefits, the risk of social disturbance is great. Dr. Bruning has at least saved Germany from chaos. That may well prove to be beyond Herr von Papen's capacity, or Hitler's after him.
But the world generally, of course, is concerned mainly with the effect of the change in Germany on the rest of Europe, and on the fortunes of the Lausanne Con- ference in particular. For the folly of President Hindenburg in deliberately throwing over the one man in Germany in whom Europe had confidence at the very moment when the formation of a new Government in France was in progress and its political colour was still undecided there can be no real defence. France, indeed, has shown marked restraint in the past few days. Opinion in that country has been moving very definitely since the election. M. Painleve, second only to M. Herriot in importance in the Radical Party and a possible Prime Minister himself, has declared definitely in principle for the cancellation of reparations and war-debts, and is apparently ready, as part of the settlement, to launch a constructive plan of which no details are yet available, for the economic rehabilitation of Europe. That is at present no more than a personal view, but there is evidence that France, which in such matters is in the last resort realistic, has largely reconciled herself to the fact that her expectation of future receipts on account of reparations may be valued at a handful of centimes.
The danger, of course, is that Germany will send to Lausanne a delegation competent to do nothing but say " No " to every proposal laid before it. That may seem to matter little if cancellation is really in prospect. But even complete cancellation would have to be on certain terms. France, under any Ministry, would refuse, and quite reasonably, to countenance a mere repudiation of obligations, and insist that even if actual reparations had to go they should not be wiped out in such a way as to torpedo the Treaty of Versailles. Any plan, moreover, such as M. Painleve seems to have in contemplation would need Germany's active concurrence, and to discuss such a plan with Dr. Bruning would be one thing and with Herr von Papen quite another. So, at least, it would appear. But to condemn von Papen in advance would be unjust. He is said to be an advocate of Franco-German co-operation and he may be less intractable at Lausanne, if he goes there, than seems probable now. But one thing is certain. In the new circumstances bold leadership at Lausanne is more vitally necessary than ever, and the one man who may be capable of exercising it is the British Prime Minister. Only drastic remedies will avail for the world's disease to-day. If this country offered to waive its claim to German reparation payments, and to debt payments from any country that would abandon reparations likewise, Lausanne, with all the monetary and economic possibilities inherent in it, might yet be the world's turning-point.
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