THE NEW DANGER TO THE TRIPLE ALLIANCE.
WE should say that the Triple Alliance, though apparently strengthened by the visit of the Czar to Prance, which, of course, wakes Central Europe to its need of self-defence, has never since its formation been in such imminent danger. That great arrangement, though accepted by the Hapsburgs and by most Austrian statesmen, has never been cordially liked by the ruling classes in the Western half of the Dual Monarchy. The Austrian Clericals cannot abide it, because it guarantees the unity of Italy, which involves, to their minds, a robbery of the Church. The Austrian aristocrats have no enthu- siasm for it, because they are proud of their position in Europe, and think, with some justice, that under the Alliance their Empire is a little overshadowed. She has, in fact, lost the initiative or the veto to which, as they hold, her great Army entitles her, and which up to 1870 she retained, in the counsels of Europe. And the body of the Austrian people do not love it, because, though they appreciate the peace it has secured, more than half of them are Slays, and their dislike for their German rivals at home extends to the great German Power beyond the frontier. Only the Hungarians cordially approve the Alliance, and now the German Emperor has contrived to alienate even Hungary. He has aroused the thirst for economic pros- perity which is becoming stronger than patriotism all over the Continent, and in a very little while will reduce the trained diplomatists almost to despair. The Hungarians believe that the German Emperor, against his own better judgment, has capitulated to the Agrarians, that the new tariff, which practically prohibits the import of foodstuffs, will be accepted by the German Parliament, and. that two consequences must follow. They themselves must be ruined by the suppression of the greatest market for their only produce, and the people of the Balkans, who will also be ruined, will throw themselves into the arms of Russia. If these, they say, are to be the consequences of the Triple Affiance, and the Power which benefits most by that agreement is to destroy the well-being of Hungary merely to fatten Prussian Junkers, would it not be better to let the Alliance go by the board, and secure at once safety and expansion by some agreement with St. Petersburg? So deep is the feeling of dismay that M. Szell, the Hungarian Premier, has expressed most of the opinions given above to Count von Billow, though he has avoided, of course, anything like menace, and has informed him that if the new tariff is enacted Hungary will not consent to any renewal of the commercial treaty, but will surround herself. like Germany, with a wall of tariffs. It is intimated, moreover, that although M. Szell speaks only for himself and Hungary, Count Goluchowski, the Chancellor of the Empire, substantially agrees with and endorses his policy, which Cisleithan Austria, if Hungary wishes it, is sure to follow.
The situation thus created for Count von Billow and. his master is exceedingly grave. It is by no means certain that the Prussian landlords will give way. They will be moved in a certain degree by the political argu- ment; but they say that with their mortgages, and .the losses in industrial-speculation which have produced those mortgages, they cannot at present prices obtain a living, and, whatever the consequences may be, they are resolved to live. "If they are deserted they will desert in their turn," and then the Emperor-King will have no majority either in Prussia or in Germany. The threat is moat serious, for they are perfectly wild with apprehension, expecting not only a, total loss of comfort, but one of position also ; they have a permanent majority in the Prussian Diet; and immense weight in the German Parlia- ment, a weight so great that the Government has already agreed to give way. If, dismayed by the political situation, it recedes from its pledges, it will be accused either of vacillation or treachery, and the breach between the throne and its most loyal defenders may become permanent and irreparable. The Emperor will not get his Navy, and in every project upon which he sets his heart he will be met by a kind of passive resistance which, when organised by resolute men or dour men, baffles the strongest govern- ments. His sword will not be broken, but he will have to strike through water instead of air. On the other hand, the Hungarians would not have spoken so plainly if they had not intended to be firm ; and if they are compelled to wall themselves in with tariffs, which will produce discontent in all their cities and seriously reduce the -volume of their trade, the Triple Alliance maybe considered as good as gone. That Alliance is invaluable to Germany, both as protecting her Southern frontier and•placing at her disposal an almost limitless reserve of men, and to have broken it up for the sake of the landlords will appear to the whole body of German people a great political failure. Just at the moment, therefore, when high prices for food will be recruiting the ranks of Socialism the personal repute of the Emperor as an enlightened and successful politician will receive a heavy blow.
It is not of much use to speculate as to the ultimate decision, for that depends upon unknown quantities,—the feeling of the German Emperor as to the landlords' oppo- sition, the degree of resolution among the Prussian Junkers, and the extent of influence which the Austrian Emperor can exert in Hungary. We prefer to point out to-day the illustration which the affair presents of an evil that is greatly troubling the statesmen of Europe,—the extraordinary increase in the difficulty of governing. Feeble men cannot do it at all, and average men grow perplexed to the point of irresolution. There are so many interests and such strong opinions to be considered that it is sometimes almost impossible to move. Count von Billow might manage the Prussian landlords if he had only to think of them ; but he has also to consider the Hungarian landlords, the Clericals of Vienna, and the commercial classes of Germany, who expect a rise of wages as a result of high prices for food. He cannot alter a tax without convincing half-a-dozen foreign statesmen that it will not hurt them, and. winning over a whole population disgusted at the idea of dear food, and beating down the resistance of his own supporters, who if food is not made dear will all be pauperised. The world, too, has become one place instead of many places, and Count von Billow, when he has' satisfied Hungary, has to think over the reports from Argentina, where an excessive crop may blow his carefully arranged scheme of com- promises into powder. And all the while Frenchmen are watching him, hoping that he may irritate Hungary ; and Russians are watching him, fearing lest their broad fields of wheat may be left without purchasers ; and his own people are watching him, dreading lest they should starve; and a smiling but irreconcilable Power at the Vatican is watching him, hoping he will make some blunder, and intending if he does to- offer a vexatious bargain, which yet must be accepted, for the votes of the Catholic Centre. It is enough to drive a. states- man mad, and we do not doubt that the enormous increase in the complexity of all affairs is one main cause of the irresolution, or " halfness," as Carlyle called the spirit of compromise, which marks so much of modern statesmanship. The work has to be done, and therefore it is done in a way ; but that it can be done successfully by men not far above the average in ability we refuse to believe. You might as well say that the sword dance could be well performed by a timid dancer dressed in robes which at every step forward or backward trip him up.
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