AFTERTHOUGHT

Swing high, swing low

JOHN WELLS

Mr Desmond Donnelly's Democratic party could well sweep to power with a massive 200 seat majority in the House of Commons at the forthcoming general election, the Prime Minister could be hit by an unpre- cedented 73 per cent swing to the right that would lose him his seat and severely damage his prospects of re-election, and Mr Heath could benefit from a financial initiative in- volving travel across the seas in the third week of June. These are just a few of the shocks contained in a statistical report pub- lished today by the Random Opinion Test- ing (no-r) Poll, based on 'fresh' material gathered during the early hours of the morn- ing. In view of the unconventional methods employed in collecting the samples, the ROT Poll may contain some marginal discrepan- cies and inaccuracies, but the overall picture must come as a devastating slap in the eye for the two major parties.

The ROT Poll has also uncovered evidence of more perplexing swings, including what are referred to in the report as the `Praxiteles' Swing, a somewhat reactionary movement noted among Greek Cypriot im- migrants of the lower income bracket, the 'New Orleans' Swing, said to have originated among United States Army non-resident alien groups, and the more dangerous 'High- land' Swing involving young Scottish Nationalists of both sexes and their depend- ents. The ROT Poll has also analysed the complex patterns of swings, reverses and glides observed in the electorate as the rhythmic announcements of other poll results from Marplan, Gallup, ORC, SWALK, BURMA and PLUTO gather momentum in the last few crucial days.

The first question put to a random sample of 1,345 householders knocked up and brought downstairs at three in the morning was as follows: 'In the forthcoming general election do you consider that Mr Desmond Donnelly's Democratic party has more or less chance of achieving a working majority than (a) the Conservative party (b) the Labour party (c) the Liberal party (d) the Communist party; and if so do you con- sider that his policies on (i) immigration (ii) defence (iii) SET and/or VAT (iv) the fluorida- tion of treated sewage (v) frontal nudity in local radio are more likely or less likely to capture the imagination of the floating voter than the tantalising trivialities of behind-the-scenes World Cup gossip or the Derby?' The breakdown was as follows:

Con. Lab. Lib. Scot Nat.

Yes 65% No 12% Don't know 13% 'Get out before wrap this iron round your neck some people trying to sleep' 10% I

miserable

This seems to prove conclusively that given a 103i- per cent swing in his marginals, Mr Donnelly could well hope for a majority of between 150 and 350 seats: if on the other hand he were to take a per cent swing in

Insane

3% — 62i%

100%

3% 1%

100%

3% i%

100%

poker

are 3% 67% Nil

the other direction, this could well lose him his support in those areas where he refuses to stand but is hoping to be offered a seat on a plate.

Mr Wilson's position is also shown to be equally vulnerable by the answers received to the question, 'Would you like to go to bed with the Prime Minister?'

Con. Lab. Lib. Scot Nat. Insane

Yes 17% 99% — 100% 50, No 17% Nil - Nil 49%

Don't know 66% 1% — Nil 1% `I said get out before I wrap this iron poker round your miserable neck' Nil Nil — 100% Nil

The Leader of the Opposition may scrape together a few crumbs of comfort from the fact that a 4 per cent random sample of floating voters in Garston found him `ex- tremely dynamic', but the other side of the coin is not much on which to build his cam- paign. The voters were asked in this instance: `If Mr Heath were to be appointed chairman of the World Bank tomorrow would you be (a) relieved (b) struck down with melancholy (c) mad with grief and remorse; and who would you think it proper to see in his place. not excluding from your considerations cer- tain persons labouring in a diplomatic capacity in the French capital?'

Con. Lab. Lib. Scot Nat. Insane

Yes Nil Nil — Nil 5 No Nil Nil — Nil 17%

Don't know

Nil Nil — .Nil 3% `Aaaaargh' 100% 100% — 100% 75%

Meanwhile, the conclusions of this and other polls have been dramatically thrown into question by an independent opinion service, Mithras Omens Ltd. According to samples taken from various public bodies the whole country could be flooded waist- deep with blood on the eve of the election. spectres could shriek and whoop about the gurgling streets, and as midnight strikes on 17 June the heavens could turn to molten fire and the earth could pass away. As with other opinion polls, however, the opinions expressed are considered by experts to-con- tain a margin of inaccuracy, and it is from this margin that the major parties must draw what confidence they can.