THE ENEMY WITHIN
Bruce Anderson on the one group of terrorists that Tony Blair won't be able to defeat
CENTRALISATION and authoritarianism can produce results. On all non-economic questions, only three members of the Blair administration really count, and since 11 September, Tony Blair, Alastair Campbell and Jonathan Powell have been absolutely focused on their response to bin Laden, which is why the PM has such a grip on events. But his government has the defects of its qualities. Grip has been purchased at the expense of peripheral vision. As a result of concentrating exclusively on terrorists in Afghanistan, Mr Blair may have thrown away a chance to defeat terrorism in Ulster.
Even before 11 September, the IRA was in trouble because three of its members had been arrested in Colombia. Its links with drug-running and left-wing terrorism aroused great anger in America, which was further inflamed by Gerry Adams's feeble prevarications. So there was already an opportunity to use the American response to press the Provos to decommission.
Then came the outrage. In the Irish Republic, almost everyone assumed that the Provos would now face relentless pressure. In Washington, they were waiting for the British government to tell them what to say and do about decommissioning. The Provo leadership itself, uncertain and dismayed, felt unsure whether it would be able to avoid making significant concessions. It need not have worried. Mr Blair was simply too busy to turn his attention to Ulster, and while the PM's mind was elsewhere, two of the Provos' most reliable allies came to their rescue: the Protestant paramilitaries and the Northern Ireland office. The Protestant paramilitaries can be relied on to turn any good cause into a public relations nightmare, while the NIO is today's equivalent of the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone. Recent events may have had a dramatic effect on world opinion; its defeatist mindset has remained unaltered, When Reginald Maudling was briefly in charge of Ulster matters, he said that his aim was to work down towards an acceptable level of violence'. His cynicism was condemned, and has endured. It could indeed be the motto for today's NIO, which not only acquiesces in the Provos' failure to decommission. It appears to have given up all hope of ever restoring the Province to normal policing and the rule of law.
Back in 1998, Tony Blair defined 'ceasefire' in the same terms that John Major and Paddy Mayhew had used, It was not enough for the Provos, the UDA et al. to hand over their weapons. There had to be no more punishment beatings or intimidation, and the various organisational structures had to be dismantled.
None of this has happened. The Chief Constable of the RUC. Sir Ronnie Flanagan, has said that all the terrorist organisations were in breach of the ceasefire. The most recent abuses have come from the UDA. which led to threats from the Northern Ireland Secretary, John Reid. In response, the UDA seems to have agreed to tone down the mayhem for 48 hours or so, which saved Dr Reid from embarrassment. It would have been hard for him to single Out the UDA for proscription when the IRA has murdered about 30 people since 1998 — and when John Reid and his officials have gradually redefined the word ceasefire, replacing the moral certainties of the Good Friday Agreement with a weasely, appeasing mishmash.
It would appear that any terrorist organisation could still claim to be observing the ceasefire as long as it abstained from murdering policeman or soldiers, or setting off bombs on the UK mainland. This helps to explain the recent disorders in North Belfast, Even though the public-sector housing has been built to high standards, North Belfast is a ghastly place, which only proves that you can take the hopeless out of the slums; you cannot take slum mentality out of the hopeless. Per capita, the inhabitants have far more tattoos than 0levels. Even on a riot-free day, you can
sense the tension. Round the corner in West Belfast, the tribal zones are at least clearly demarcated: it is easy to throw a peace line between the Shankill and the Falls. In North Belfast, however, there are the jagged edges of sectarian conflict: street salients full of people who hate their neighbours and whom the neighbours would gladly burn out.
Needless to say, North Belfast has no economic prospects; its most recent ones were snuffed out by the Great Depression. It is full of families who are third-generation unemployed — and umpteenth-generation fodder for religio-ethnic militancy. Nor is North Belfast unique. Elsewhere, they may not be throwing stones at schoolchildren, but throughout the Province intercommunity antagonism is increasing, while the various paramilitaries tighten their control. There are many urban areas where the police presence is minimal and where the local inhabitants dare not offend the local warlords, who often live well from the proceeds of drug trafficking. While it would be an exaggeration to compare Ulster with Afghanistan, the UK authorities are tolerating terrorist/criminal fiefdoms in which central government authority stretches little further than the payment of social-security benefits. There are senior policemen who believe that the various paramilitary groups will soon move beyond their Ulster safe havens and try to take over the UK drug trade.
In response to these threats, immediate and long-term, the NIO is doing — nothing. One problem is personnel weakness. The Permanent Secretary, Joe Pilling, is at least one level overpromoted and has no gift of leadership. The same is true of the Northern Ireland Secretary. John Reid is a decent man with many of the right instincts, but he is well away from Mr Blair's inner circle and is afraid of its members, Lacking the confidence to stand up to No. 10, he is only interested in carrying out its instructions. When it is too busy to issue any, everything drifts — as it is now.
On Tuesday afternoon, Tony Blair announced his intention of dealing with terrorism, but there was no applause in Ulster. He made exactly the same promise to the people of Ulster in 1998, yet nothing has happened, because he allowed the moral momentum of the Good Friday Agreement to be dissipated.
A few weeks ago, that loss seemed irretrievable, until the tragedies in New York and Washington created a new moral momentum, arising from an international revulsion against terrorists. Tony Blair could have used that momentum to rescue his peace process. By putting decommissioning back on the agenda, he could have prevented the devolved institutions from collapsing. But with his other, understandable, preoccupations, he has failed to do so. Over the next few years, Osama bin Laden's terrorist network may be destroyed. The Provisional IRA will stay in business.
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