GERMANY'S OPPORTUNITY
Just six months ago the German delegates were leaving the London Conference, having signed the Protocol which put the Dawes Scheme into effect. M. Herriot had agreed definitely to evacuate the Ruhr within a year, and the first date, January 10th, 1925, on which, under the Versailles Treaty, the Allies were to begin the evacuation of German territory was in sight. The German delegates were able to point to these facts when they had to meet the bitter attacks of their own Nationalists. For they were, of course, accused of having willingly entered into an agreement with the Allies, who would cer- tainly once more deceive and ruin them.
Since then the whole situation has changed. As the autumn passed. on and the German election succeeded the British, it became increasingly clear that the Allies were making no preparations for evacuating the Northern area of the Rhineland on January 10th, under the terms of the Treaty. The Allied Commission, which was inquiring into German disarmaments, had not, it is true, issued any report, but alarming rumours were circulated that it would be of a far from satisfactory character. At last the British Government, whose troops were in occupation of the area in question, officially made it clear that no evacuation would take place on January 10th, because of certain German infringements of the Treaty in the matter of disarmament. It is true that had Great Britain evacuated Cologne the French position in the Ruhr would have been isolated, and a situation of great difficulty would have arisen. But it was the alleged failure to disarm and not this reason which was given as the cause of the continued British occupation.
At once the old cry of "I told you so ! " arose in the German Nationalist Press. Here was proof that, how- ever conciliatory, however cringing, the attitude of the German Government might be, the Allies were deter- mined never to loosen their hold. The Report of the Allied Commission on Disarmament was not issued before January 10th; indeed, it has not been issued yet, and so the truth or the reverse of the charge that Germany has herself broken the Treaty in this respect is hardly determinable by outsiders. But the fact remains that to the ordinary German his country, obviously and palpably disarmed, is ringed round by a barrier of States in close alliance and, with France at their head, all armed to a more than 1914 standard. Thus in- evitably it seems to the ordinary German that it is the merest quibble for these overarmed Allies to escape the fulfilment of their Treaty obligations by asserting that they had discovered some thousands of rifles in Krupps, a suspicious system of recruiting or a disguised Great General Staff. The hands of the Nationalists were beyond doubt strengthened and, in spite of the December election, which had shown that the country was inclining slowly to the pacific Left, the first Nationalist Government since the War was formed. And now, far more disturbing than anything else, it is found that M. Herriot in the name of France has changed his reason for staying in the Rhine- land. He does not now say that it is because of Germany's default in the matter of disarmament ; but rather because France has been cheated of her guarantee pact by England and America. This was the burden of his now famous speech in the Chamber on Wednesday, January 28th. It is easy to see how formidable a thesis this is for Germany. Herr Luther, the new Chancellor, could at once answer the Allied Note on Germany's failure to disarm with the assurance that if indeed Germany had committed this crime she was ready and willing to put the matter right, immediately the Allies had pointed out specific instances.
We do not for one moment endorse the German view of Allied action, but we feel that it is necessary for people in this country to realize that this is how events appear to a not unreasonable and not inconsiderable part of the German people. It remains for us to con- sider what was M. Herriot's real meaning if we refuse, as we think we are entitled to refuse, to believe that France means to stay indefinitely in the Rhineland. It is likely that he intended to put pressure upon this country in order to make her renew something like, but better than, Mr. Lloyd George's " Cannes " offer. To secure this he holds over our heads the threat of a return to the Poincare policy of wrecking. M. Herriot, it seems, is beginning to behave like the small boy who threatens to pull the tea table over unless he is given another of the sugar cakes labelled "security."
As usual, therefore, all will depend upon the attitude of this country. At present it is obvious that Mr. Cham- berlain is thoroughly friendly and sympathetic to France. He, like all of us, is deeply 'anxious to see her satisfied, and therefore pacific and content, and it is evident that he is willing to yield to the ultimate length possible, to meet her wishes. But he will have to determine clearly what is the position of this country in regard to our con- tinued occupation of the Rhineland. We read that Reuter's agency was officially informed a few days ago that the British thesis is unchanged. It is that Germany has infringed the Treaty by her failure to disarm, and that therefore we are continuing to occupy Cologne as a pledge. When Germany has put right her various failures "evacuation will follow automatically." At any rate, there seems hardly any possibility of this country's. adopting M. Herriot's point of view, which seems to be that the Allies are to remain indefinitely on German soil until they can agree amongst themselves to guarantee the security of France.
The situation gives Germany a real opportunity. If she is wise she will behave with the utmost conciliatori- ness and patience. If she shows a real determination to adhere scrupulously to the clauses of the Versailles Treaty she will make it well-nigh impossible for this country to support the continued occupation of the Ruhr and the Rhineland which we might be inclined to do out of sympathy with France. Dr. Luther has made, in our opinion, a right start in this direction by his speech on Friday, January 80th (although we see that Mr. Chamberlain at Birmingham complains of its tone). If, however, Germany shows a stiff and intransigent spirit, then it will-be' easy for this country to find reasons for supporting- France in the indefinite. occupation of German territory and the domination of the German nation. An opportunity, in fact, presents itself to Germany for freeing herself from foreign occupa- tion at the earliest possible moment, and at the same time serving, as we believe; the general cause of peace.
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