Political Commentary
Decision Time for Harold
By ALAN WATKINS
TODAY is an appropriate time to peer over Mr. Harold Wilson's shoulder as he flips through his Boy Scout diary. After skipping the Signs of the Zodiac and useful information concerning weights and measures, we may pause with him as his eye finally fixes on the blank space under Thursday, June 17. This, it is generally agreed, is the very last day on which an early election could be held. In fact, Thursday, June 10 (the Duke of Edinburgh's birthday, I observe), is thought at Westminster to be a more probable date, if there is going to be a summer election at all. Let us then work backwards from this latter date. Though in theory only three weeks' notice of an election is needed, the practice since the war has been to give notice of between four and six weeks. There is no reason to think that Mr. Wilson would depart from this practice. The conclusion is plain. Within the next week, at the very outside within the next fortnight, the Prime Minister must decide whether or not he is going to the country. If at the end of this period there is no word from Number 10, we shall khow with near- certainty that Mr. Wilson intends to hang on at least until October.
Nor will this silence be politically unimportant. Both Government and Opposition will be able to make various dispositions on the strength of it. For most ministers no news will be good news; for Sir Alec Douglas-Home perhaps less so.
But before going into these questions it may be as well to try to analyse Mr. Wilson's motives. The first point to note is that until now he has done a good deal of bluffing about the circum- stances in which he would call an election. A few weeks ago, for example, he said in a public speech that he would go to the country if there were 'obstruction' of government legislation. Ostensibly this speech was aimed at the Opposi- tion and at the House of Lords. In reality it was aimed at Mr. Wilson's more left-wing supporters, who were at that time growing increasingly restive over events in Vietnam. The speech sounded a note of wholly spurious radicalism. It was not unsuccessful in its object. Mr. William Hamilton, for instance, is now devoting a part of his considerable energy not to serious trouble- making but to bothering about the House of Lords.
Yet, as Mr. Wilson knows perfectly well, the House of Lords has so far behaved with remark- able circumspection. It looks like carrying on in the same way. The Burmah Oil affair was wholly exceptional. If the Steel Bill ever reaches the Lords, the signs are that it will not be thrown out. And, as for obstruction by the Opposition in the Commons, there has been precious little of it; hardly any in fact. Some Conservatives would have been better pleased if there had been more.
Indeed the only substantial obstruction 'Live seen has come not from the Opposition K., t rorn Mr. Wilson's own side. So his threat to go to the country if there is 'obstruction' need not be taken too literally.
Or take again the bluffing that has taken place over the Steel Bill. (I am here drawing a distinc- tion between obstruction in the tactical sense and defeats on specific legislation such as steel.) The threats to hold an election following a defeat was an attempt to frighten the rebels and also con- ceivably the Conservative Party. As I argued last week, though steel might be the excuse for calling an election, the real considerations in Mr. Wil- son's mind would be quite different. He would have to be surea of winning, and with an increased majority.
A surprising number of Conservatives believe that Mr. Wilson could indeed be sure of this. They marvel at his statesmanlike restraint. Look at Roxburgh, they say; look at the opinion polls; look at Sir Alec on television. What is Mr. Wilson waiting for? Why, for that matter, did he not go to the country back in March? (Conservative Central Office believed that a March election was highly probable, and the machine was geared accordingly. It will be kept in this state until the danger of a June elec- tion has passed.) Mr. Wilson, however, is a cautious fellow. There is no politician who is less of a gambler. The polls may look healthy enough at the moment, but leads, particularly Labour leads, have a nasty, sly habit of vanishing once the election date is announced and the moment of choice draws near.
Then there are the by-election results to date. These certainly do not square with the polls. Even disregarding Leyton and Nuneaton as freak results involving luckless Cabinet ministers, the other contests have not provided solid grounds for hope. Roxburgh may have been a famous de- feat for the Conservatives, but it was hardly a famous victory for Labour. At Saffron Walden the Conservative, Mr. Peter Kirk, polled astonish- ingly well in all the circumstances. I am writing before the Hall Green result is known: it will have to be a great deal better than previous by- election results for Mr. Wilson to face the country with a certainty of increasing his majority.
For historical reasons, a Labour Prime Minister can afford to miscalculate less than a Con- servative. The Labour Party is highly conscious of the fact that it has enjoyed only one full period of office, Mr. Wilson himself is equally conscious of the mistake Lord Attlee made in going to the country in 1951. If Mr. Wilson threw away, or appeared to throw away, Labour's chances of remaining in office, even he would not lightly be forgiven by the movement, and Mr. Wilson is fully aware of this.
These, then, are some of the considerations which Mr., Wilson must balance in the next week or so. And, if there is to be no election, the question of Sir Alec's leadership of the Con- servative Party is certain to be re-opened.
In a sense, of course, the question has never been closed. Conservatives who talk about Sir Alec—and some of them can talk about little else—communicate what can best be described as an assumption of impermanence. This is different in kind from the assessments of party leaders which are continually being made in British politics. Mr. Wilson, for instance, may be criticised, even violently, by members of his own party; Labour MPs may play a kind of par- lour game in which they nominate his successor if he were to fall under a bus, but everyone assumes that unless something of this kind occurs Mr. Wilson will be with us for years and years. The prospect of another twenty-five years of Mr. Wilson has, it is true, been found somewhat daunting by a few of the younger Labour mem- bers: but they are prepared to cheer him loyally for some years yet.
On the Conservative side, however, the attitude to Sir Alec is not like this at all. Sooner or later, it is agreed, he is going to go. Admittedly the savage criticism that was to be heard immediately following tfie Roxburgh by-election died down rapidly: but there was still speculation about Sir Alec's future; and in the last few days this speculation has intensified. With good reason, for Central Office has been somewhat tactlessly conducting a survey in the country. Things are clearly moving. There is even a rumour that the Conservatives might settle for yet another stop- gap candidate. If there is no general election, we may soon expect to hear of a deputation waiting upon Sir Alec to bring him the message, 'We don't want to lose you, but we think you ought to go.'
It should not be too easily assumed that Sir Alec will be lost for ever to the Conservatives. Like A. J. Balfour (in this respect, if in no other) he may continue to serve the party, spending the evening of his days as Foreign Secretary.
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