THE COMING FRENCH ELECTIONS.
IT is difficult to exaggerate the importance of the contest which, on to-morrow fortnight, will for some years to come settle the fate of France. If the Parliamentarians win decisively, the uneasy peace of Europe will probably continue for another four years, the French Army being unwilling to be guided in a great war by a fluctuating majority of a civilian Assembly, and equally unwilling to resist the expressed will of the people. The Russian Govern- ment, moreover, will retain its distrust of an ally whose victory under a Republican regime would do much to shake confidence in the necessity of personal Government. If the result is a tie, or anything like it, which is improbable in a country like France, and with passion so strongly excited, authority will decay still farther, the bitterness and un- certainty of the Parliamentary strife will be accentuated, and each party will make heavier bids for popular support, one of which may be a campaign against Italy. And if the Boulangists—that is, the coalesced factions who elevate General Boulanger as a standard—should succeed, France will once more be thrown into the crucible, the Generals will become an active power in the State, and alliances on secret terms once more becoming possible, the chances of a great war will be indefinitely increased. Indeed, we should say that war could hardly be avoided except by a partition which would involve many of its worst results. The stake at issue being so great, the interest even of Englishmen in the contest should be far deeper than it is ; and we cannot but fancy that the languid feeling displayed is due in part to a mistake as to the situation. It is imagined that the result is a foregone conclusion, and that, what with the sentence passed on General Boulanger, the immense success achieved by the Exhibition, and the unscrupulous energy of M. Constans, the Parlia- mentarians will return in undiminished numbers. That may be an accurate opinion ; but it is clearly not the opinion of the French Government, which has its agents in every sub-district ; of the Monarchists, who have at least one representative in every rural village ; or of the Boulangists, who are kept informed by the discontented everywhere. They all believe the result to be to the last degree uncertain. The Government, in particular, which is not swayed by any latent partiality for Boulangism, but has grown during the struggle almost fanatically Parlia- mentarian, is showing symptoms of grave uneasiness, stretching every nerve to discredit General Boulanger, and warning all its agents by written circular that the election must be regarded as matter of life and death. The whole force of official France will be exerted against the Boulangists ; and if even illegal things should be done, they will be overlooked. There is even discussion of what may be attempted if the electors " show themselves misguided," and threats have been heard of an immediate dissolution, and even of a coup d'etat on Republican behalf. As the Republican Ministers have hitherto been fairly passive at elections, or at least have confined themselves to promises and "acts of local conciliation" such as grants for public works, that is a sign of apprehension, and it is not un- justified by certain facts. Although the Boulangists under that name did not prosper in the municipal elections, the Conservatives did, and the Conservatives this time form a wing in the Boulangist army. The Church, it is known, is better pleased with Boulangist offers than with M. Floquet's strange mixture of promises and threats ; and the private soldiers who are drawn from every village have by no means forgotten the only Minister who ever did anything directly for their comfort. The Comte de Paris, who influences perhaps a sixth of all country electors, and who has at all events unusual means of information, has pro- nounced decisively in favour of an anti-Republican vote ; and though the Bonapartist chief fights more for his own hand, his representatives are furiously on the same side.
All these powers, taken together, make up a considerable mass of force ; and the contest between the Government as a power and the Opposition as a power able to influence and even to intimidate voters, is not so unequal as it might at first sight appear.
The verdict, however, rests with neither the Govern. ment nor the Opposition, but with the whole population of France ; and the decision of that vast and headless mass remains as inscrutable as ever. It is said that the popula- tion shows little sign of excitement, and that public interest in the election is unexpectedly slight; but that is exactly what was said before the election in which M. Gambetta crushed Marshal MacMahon and the whole force of a power- ful and peremptory administration. We should say that the silence of the multitude, which is taken for lassitude, means nothing but a resolution on one side or the other so strongly taken that talk is felt to be superfluous,—a mood into which French electors have once or twice fallen before. Parisians are the most talkative e Frenchmen, but they talked so little before the election of General Boulanger, that within an hour of the pro- clamation of the numbers, M. Floquet, though informed by the whole spy service of Paris, was certain of his enemy's defeat, and the Cabinet had arranged a Bill to be brought in when the defeat had happened. Quiescence in France is not necessarily a good sign for the Govern- ment, for it may mean abstentions which injure Republicans most, or it may mean a resolve to be silent till the last moment, for fear of official persecution. The peasantry know well that they have nothing to fear after the election, —for if the Government wins, it will be good tempered ; and if it loses, it will be powerless to execute its threats. That is the point at which official pressure, so often described as irresistible in France, nowadays breaks down. M. Constans can threaten and can worry a great number of individuals, before the poll is taken ; but what can he do after, even if he wins ? He cannot hunt down individuals, for he will not know them—the 'French peasant, if alarmed, lying with profound calmness and persistency—and if he punishes whole districts, he loses the votes of all their representatives. The peasantry know quite well they are masters of the situation, and will vote according to their own ideas, unaffected either by Government threats or by an Exhibition of which they may be proud, or by which, they may be enriched, but which, whatever vote they may give, has been successful. Nothing can now interfere with that, and the Exhibition is out of the calculation. Neither M. Constant] nor General Boulanger will pull down the Eiffel Tower. The peasant will vote on his own convictions ; and if on the whole he thinks the Parliamentary system weak, expensive, and corrupt, he will vote for a revision of the Constitution. If, on the other hand, he is fairly contented, or disposed, as is exceedingly probable, to avoid anything even savouring of revolutionary action or a provocation to war, he will vote quietly for the continuance of the existing regime. Finally, it is believed in England that after the flight of General Boulanger, and his condemnation, and the publication of the evidence on which that condemnation was based, and his insignificant position in London, the population of France must be disenchanted with its hero ; but is that true ? It may be, for no one has yet divined the thoughts of the French peasant about character, or understood what he conceived Napoleon III., for instance, really to be ; but it is much more probable that the Frenchmen who like Boulanger regard all that has come out, just as Gladstonians regard all the accusations levelled at Mr. Gladstone, as missiles of party warfare. Whatever has been proved as to the Secret Service money, it has not been proved that General Boulanger pocketed it, and the other accusations will with his supporters have no effect. What, it will be said in France, if he intrigued ? His business as Pretender was to intrigue. What if he lied ? Everybody lies. What if he interfered with discipline in the State ?—M. de Blowitz's daily charge—every politician who wants followers always interferes with official discipline. The crowds who follow him as standard are not looking for a King Honest, or a Washington, or even a man of transcendent powers, but for a General who will, as they think, give them a Republic without a governing Chamber, will keep the Radical Extremists down, and will restore the ex- ternal prestige of France. Nothing has occurred except his flight to show that the General cannot do these things, and the flight is regarded merely as an act of prudence, a move in the great party game. Why go to prison when you can keep out ? We remain, as we always have been, utterly unable to understand why the discontented section of France should have pitched on General Boulanger as its representative, but it did pitch ; and if he returns before the elections, so as to be on French soil when they actually take place, his nominees will, as men embodying that discontent, be most formidable candidates. They may be entirely beaten, France deciding against a return to the melting-pot ; but to suppose that all is over except the shouting is to make a mistake which, we may rely on it, M. Constans and his colleagues are not making.
Previous page
