TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE BOROUGH ELECTIONS.
IT is no wonder that Mr. Gladstone at West Calder pledged himself to support the abolition of University representation in the House of Commons, for he had previously committed himself to an opinion that leisure and culture are absolutely negative quantities for the purpose of securing a right decision on such a question as the Union of Ireland with Great Britain. The great feature of the elections of the past week has been that Mr. Gladstone has, on the whole, gained ground in the least intelligent constituencies, and lost ground in the most intelligent. He has gained ground chiefly in the least educated quarters of London; he has lost immensely at Newcastle, and several of the neighbouring boroughs ; he has lost ground in Scotland, lost a great deal of ground in Birmingham and its neighbourhood (where however, un- fortunately, there was hardly any opening for Parlia- mentary gain, as almost everything was gained already), and he has lost ground in York and Leeds (where Mr. Herbert Gladstone's majority dwindled from over 2,000 to 353). It cannot be denied that if he wins the victory which he expects,—but which we do not expect,—he will win it by the enthusiasm of a number of con- stituencies with whom the chief question at issue does not in any way affect their real motive for returning him to power. Without more knowledge of the direction in which the county constituencies are voting, it is im- possible to form any conclusion as to the result; but this much is certain, that, so far as the borough elections are concerned, the " Progressive policy," as it was called, in London will have done a vast deal more for Mr. Glad- stone's Parliamentary strength, than any conviction as to either the rights or the wrongs of Ireland. The most signal victory obtained by any personal influence as yet is the victory of Mr. Chamberlain in the Midlands, where he has not only carried all his candidates by vastly in- creased majorities, but has won for us Walsall, Wednes- bury, and West Wolverhampton. It is clear, we think, that while Mr. Chamberlain's influence is yearly wax- ing, Mr. Gladstone's no doubt very much wider influence is on the wane. In only one division of Edinburgh has he gained ground, while in all the others he has lost it, and the one seat captured by Lord Wolmer was captured by a handsome majority. The victory of Mr. Hamond in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, where he passed Mr. Morley by nearly three thousand votes, and turned out Mr. Craig, is a symptom of great significance. Taken in connection with the polls in Leeds, and Mr. Butcher's victory in York, we believe that it denotes a definite decrease of Mr. Glad- stone's power in the North of England. And though he may possibly compensate this by his increased command of the rougher London populations, and possibly,—though of the county contests we know as yet only a few,—by a few sporadic victories in the rural districts, it is clear, we think, that Mr. Gladstone's authority amongst the best trained artisans of the great cities, which was declining even in 1886, is now ebbing much more rapidly. Nor will a victory in the less thoughtful constituencies serve his pur- pose equally well. The future is with the great cities. And for the future Mr. Gladstone can hardly wait. What he does he must do quickly.
Now, it is clear that unless there has been an extraordi- nary turn of the tide in the counties since 1886,—and the evi- dence of yesterday tends to a very different conclusion,— there is no chance at all for Mr. Gladstone of any majority equal to the great task he has in hand. He may perhaps get a majority of thirty, or the Government may get a majority of thirty ; but 80 far as the polling of the week can guide us, a majority such as would be needed to carry Home-rule for Ireland is not even on the cards. It is certain that a considerable number of the Gladstonian members are deeply committed to their constituents to a scheme of Home-rule which neither Mr. Gladstone would offer nor the Irish Members would accept,—the scheme which is really nothing but a Local Government Bill with a supreme Municipal Council at the top, or, as it is usually called, a "Gas-and-Water Legislature," a Legislature supreme on local rates and arrangements, but not trusted with the duty of protecting the weak and punishing the misdeeds of the powerful. It is all very well to say that these " Gas-and-Water " Home-rulers have been returned to support Mr. Gladstone, and that if they desert Mr. Gladstone, they will lose their seats on the very first feasible opportunity. That would impress them very much, perhaps, if Mr. Gladstone came back to. power with a majority of more than a hundred. But it will not impress them at all if Mr. Gladstone comes back to power with only a majority of thirty behind him. A Prime Minister so situated is not omni- potent, still less a Prime Minister so situated who has only a very limited time at his disposal, and who knows that what he fails to do, will be simply im- possible to his successor. A Prime Minister in such a situation as that cannot afford to dictate, and is quite certain to fall between the two stools of lukewarm English support, and dictatorial Irish demands. He cannot satisfy the Irish Party with anything less than a really National Irish Parliament and Government. He cannot compel his most deeply pledged English followers to accept a really National Irish Parliament and Government ; and between the two difficulties, his rash policy will be certain to founder. If, as he seems to promise, he allows the House of Lords to reject his scheme, and calmly pro- ceeds to other reforms, he will find the Irish Party always laying traps for him, and always endeavouring to make him feel their resentment. And if he dissolves again., he will not only greatly irritate his own followers, but will confess a failure which would be very unlikely indeed to lead to future success. Of course the county elections may make a change in this prospect. But if they turn out pretty much as they did in 1886,—and yesterday's omens look as if they might turn out more favourably,— Mr. Gladstone would hardly get a majority at all, assuredly not one with which he can carry a great constitutional revolution. There is at present no sign of enthusiasm for his policy. The two parties appear not unlikely to bring each other to a standstill ; but that is just the result which would be most mortifying to Mr. Gladstone. A decided defeat would almost be less humiliating than a popular mandate to effect a great revolution, without any of the force needful for that herculean task. The former would be a mortification, but the latter would be a mockery.
So far as we can judge of the result of the appeal to the constituencies, it is much what we might expect from sub- mitting to them a question which they do not understand, and on which they can hardly make up their own minds, but must act on the advice of the leaders whom they happen to trust the most. In a great many constituencies, unfortunately, there has been no local leader in whom the great mass of voters have felt implicit confidence. Where there has been such a leader,—as in the Bir- mingham district,—the result has been a very impres- sive and explicit mandate indeed. But where there has been no such leader, there has been nothing but a rather heavy vote delivered on the old party lines, and without any of that sense of distinct conviction which is needed to make converts. Many constituencies have evidently found consolation in relieving some sense of grievance which has no sort of connection with the political issue of the day. Such, probably, was the vote in Ports- mouth and Devonport. Such was certainly the vote which turned out Mr. Ritchie (the only Minister as yet defeated) from St. George's-in-the-East, and which caused the greater number of the G-ladstonian gains in London. Nor need we be surprised, when a question not fitted to the decision of a democracy is submitted to a democracy, that the constituencies should be very glad to find some other issue on which they can give their vote with something like eager conviction. Whatever result the county elections may give,—and we have gained Peebles and Selkirk, though we have lost Cricklade and the Chesterton Division of Cambridgeshire,—we may feel very sure of this, that they will not be greatly affected by the electors' view of the Irish Question. If they vote for the Government, it will be because the Government introduced and passed the Small Holdings Act. If they vote for the Opposition, it will be because Mr. Gladstone is pledged to cap the Small Holdings Act by some Act still more favourable to the interests of the agricultural labourer. Submit to a democracy a question which does not interest it, and the result is very much a matter of pure chance. The vastly increased Conservative majorities which we have gained in many of yesterday's returns, seem to promise rather &victory for the Government than a victory for the Opposition.
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