FREE-TRADE IN AMERICA.
MR. SHEARM.A.N, the author of a very able letter in Wednesday's Times, is persuaded of the approach of Free-trade in America. The facts he gives to support his view are well worth attending to, and should especially be noted and considered by those perverse persons who are convinced, first, that the "round world" is irrevocably pledged to perpetual Protection, and secondly, that "the round world must be right." To begin with, he points out that the Democratic Party in America has, during the elections held in the last ten years, always polled a majority of the total votes cast. In 1888, when the Democrats failed to elect a President, they polled a majority of nearly 100,000 votes. In 1889, they had a majority of over 300,000; in 1890, of 800,000; in 1891, of 750,600. Their majority in 1892, whether they elect a President or not, will not be less than 400,000, and is likely to be very much more. If they also carry the single State of New York, they will infallibly elect the next President. The party lost that State in 1888 by only 14,000 majority, but carried the State in 1890 by 80,000, and in 1891 by 50,000, "the reduced majority being solely due to some disaffection in the party, for local reasons, which is now entirely removed." In other words, unless there is some sudden and quite unexpected change at the next election for the Presidency, the Demo- crats will again prove themselves a very large majority. The Democratic Party is, in fact, the party to which the bulk of the American population belongs. But the Democratic Party has, with virtual unanimity, not only adopted an anti-Protectionist programme, but has chosen as its candidate a politician whose name is synonymous with what we mean by Free-trade,—that is, tariff for revenue purposes only. The manner in which the Democratic Party has adopted the principle of Free-trade is specially remarkable. Protection—i.e., the raising of duties for other than revenue purposes—has been condemned as un- constitutional; and therefore, if the Democratic Party triumphs, Protection must go root and branch, as some- thing opposed to the institutions of the United States. The vote by which this decision was carried was a very heavy one. Five hundred and sixty-four Members voted for it, and only 343 against. Nor is this all. Mr. Shearman declares that "the most significant part of the vote consists in the fact that the minority was composed almost entirely of men who heartily approved of the deci- sion, but who feared that the people at large were not pre- pared for such a radical utterance ; while the majority included the entire delegation from New York, who have hitherto been among the most obstinate opponents of anything savouring of Free-trade, and who strove to defeat Mr. Cleveland upon that ground." Mr. Shearman is con- fident, indeed, that the Democratic Party as a whole may now be considered as unanimous for Free-trade and against the taxation of the consumer in the interests of the pro- ducer. But if the Democrats are a large majority of the voters, and if the Democrats are determined to put an end to Protection, it is obviously safe to predict that the days of Protection are numbered, for though accidents may allow another Presidential triumph to the Republicans, the will of the majority is certain to prevail in the long-run. Under these circumstances, it is by no means improbable that the year 1893 may see changes that will revolutionise the conditions under which trade is now carried on. If America abandons Protection, her trade both at home and abroad will double in ten years. We see what her natural resources and the skill and industry of her people have done for her in spite of Protection. The impetus her in- dustries will receive under a system of unrestricted com- mercial intercourse will create wealth even beyond the dreams of Wall Street. The effect on the greatest of American industries, agriculture, will be immediate. If America takes our woollens and cottons and hard- ware in increased quantities, she will at once find the demand for her corn doubled and trebled. The fact that the ships that go to fetch American corn go in ballast, is an immense restriction on the amount taken. Let them both go full and return full, and American farmers will find the demand for their corn very greatly increased. But it must not be supposed that because we send more woollens and cottons to America,. therefore America will produce no more of these articles. She will, under a system of Free-trade, be a far greater manufacturing country than she is now. After the first year or two, the manufacturers will find that they can easily compete with their European rivals, and that the supplies of raw material at their doors, and the ingenuity of their people, amply compensate for the higher wages they- are called on to pay. Pampered industries, when the pam- pering is withdrawn, soon find their level. But no sooner will America hold her own in the manufacturing world, than she will begin to outstrip all rivals. At present, the great neutral markets of the East, of India and China, are closed to her because the Tariff puts her at a disadvantage. As soon, however, as she can enter these markets on terms of equality, she will begin to beat all rivals. Her geographical position and her command of raw material will make it quite impossible to undersell her in China, either in cottons or in other dry goods. How can a manufacturer whose port of despatch is Liverpool, hope to sell goods in Canton as cheaply as a manufac- turer whose port is San Francisco ? Mr. Shearman is, we believe, perfectly justified in thinking that the increased prosperity which is certain to follow in the wake of Free-trade in America, will convert the European States from the Protectionist delusion. In the first place, American example is in commercial matters of great weight, and will by itself count for much. There is, however, a more important reason. The European countries now devoted to Protection will find their exports enor- mously decreased by American Free-trade. At present, America is a rival who does not count. Under Free-trade, America will be a rival scoring successes at every turn. Plenty of the things that we now take from France and Germany, we should take from America were America Free-'rade. But when foreign States see this, they are very likely to realise that their only chance will be to put away the follies of Protection, and follow the example of America.
That America should be on the eve of the abandonment of Protection, is a subject for sincere congratulation for all Free-traders, and for all well-wishers of that portion of the English kin which dwells across the Atlantic. It would be foolish, however, to disguise from ourselves the fact that the result will be the overthrow of the hegemony that the United Kingdom has hitherto enjoyed in matters of trade. We shall never be able to compete with a Free- trade America, and in fifty years, or perhaps sooner, we shall be, when compared with our offspring, an inactive volcano of commerce. We shall feel the rivalry of the Americans, and before a generation has passed away, the United States, not England, will be the most prosperous of the workshops of the world. But the relatively greater prosperity of America is not at all inconsistent with an absolutely greater prosperity at home as compared with the prosperity of the present day. When all the world has gained, States of the second rank may be far busier and more prosperous than States of the first rank are now. One result of the changes produced by the abandonment of Protection in America will perhaps be seen in the partial sucking away of our population. As American trade, agricultural and industrial, increases by leaps and bounds, so will increase by leaps and bounds the demand for more "hands." Our artisans may perhaps be induced to follow the trade across the Atlantic, as, in times past, they have followed it from the West to the North of England, or from one side of the Thames to the other. Perhaps, however, even if this should be so,—and it is by no means certain that the larger trade of the world will not keep America and England fully employed,— this drawing away from England of the congestion of population and wealth which might have followed on America maintaining Protection, will not be a subject for regret. After all, States do not live by commerce alone, and we may be as worthy a State when we possess a commercial superior, as we are when we hold, as now, the headship of the mercantile world. Besides, to be beaten by America will not count, for the supreme posi- tion will still remain in the family.
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