The Tory Leadership
DAVID WATT writes: It is now almost certain that the leadership of the Conservative Party will be determined during the next ten days. Whatever the Denning Report contains, the pressure for a quick decision is now almost irresistible. The possibilities have narrowed to two. Either the Prime Minister will take the Party into an eleCtion this autumn under his own leadership or a new leader will be proclaimed at about the time of the conference who shall pre- side at an election next spring. One does not necessarily have to believe the word from the Conservative Central Office (which has several axes to grind) but the belief of pundits there that the Prime. Minister is determined to go as soon as he can get the Denning Report and the Party Conference out of the way makes sense. It is extremely doubtful whether Mr. Macmillan, even if he wished to. could hold the party to- gether under his leadership until next spring.
Of the two main alternatives the first is the less likely. The advice coming in from the con- stituencies is that things are looking up and that, barring appalling accidents, the situation for the Conservatives next spring will be better than it is now. An autumn election could only be justified on the assumption that the Conservatives are bound to lose anyway and that it is better if Mr. Macmillan should take the onus of defeat upon his own shoulders. Things have not, it seems quite reached this stage, though Mr. Macmillan is quite capable of the quixotic gesture when it is required.
The question of who would succeed Mr. Mac- millan is, of course, as difficult as ever, and its solution -depends upon where, these days, real power in the Conservative Party lies. The Cabinet no doubt wants Mr. Butler, but Lord Poole and the leaders of the constituency Tories, and to some extent the leaders of the backbench Con- servatives in Parliament, believe that they have the power to block this choice. If they have such a power then there is no real alternative at present to Mr. Maudling, who would still be endorsed, though unenthusiastically, by all.
Previous page
