PROSPECTS IN IRELAND.
WE are inclined, on the whole, and with a full recognition of the futility of predictions about Ireland, to expect a short term of comparative tranquillity there. The signs are all.one way. The farmers, who make up the solid bulk of the population, though probably not contented—for they are not yet simple copyholders, and that is their own theory of their own right—are obviously far less discontented than they were, and disposed to pause in their secular agitation. They have not got all they wish for, but they have got a long respite from eviction, nearly complete freedom from the thraldom of agents, and a large and permanent reduction in their excessive rents. They doubt if more can be obtained, they are tired of the constant strain, and they are disposed to see what they can make of their new position. They have a bountiful, if not a brimming harvest, which will go to themselves, and not in payment of dead arrears; they have more money at their own disposal than they ever had; and, except in a few districts, the pecuniary future looks lighter to them. They are impressed, moreover, by the last Coercion Act, which, amid many objec- tionable provisions, restores the authority of the law, and makes of terrorism for gain a dangerous occupation. They are, therefore, disposed to be quiet, and accept the present situation as, at all events, a modus vivendi, The outrages are becoming visibly fewer. The agitating Committees are break- ing up. The demand for farms, which had nearly died away, has, reports the Daily News' Correspondent, suddenly and strongly revived. The gentry are beginning to think it safe to revive the hunts, without which, in their judg- ment, life is intolerably dull; and the tradesmen are no longer afraid of boycotting. The Catholic Clergy, who have ducked under during the storm in a manner which, whatever the possible excuses, we shall never think favourable to their repute for fidelity to their Church, are raising their heads again; and, above all, the representative men are altering their course. Mr. Dillon, who represents the true Separatists, and moans insurrection, if insurrection is possible, has an- nounced, in an address to his electors, that he retires from public life for the next few years. He is ill, he says, which is true ; but one cause of his illness is chagrin at the prospects of his country, and the growing quiescence of his people. He sees no prospect of action, and despises the campaign of worry and finesse by which action is to be replaced or simulated. We have a respect for Mr. Dillon, who, furious as he is, has in him leas of that element of perversity than most of his rivals, and is distinct as to what ho wants, but his depar- ture means that the Irish barometer is no longer fixed at stormy." So also does the new programme which Michael Davitt has submitted to Mr. Parnell. It looks on paper quite formidable, but it is essentially a pumped-up programme, lack- ing alike the simplicity and sincerity which attract great masses. The mere fact that it contains twelve clauses, of which one is the Repeal of the Union and another the payment of Irish Members in London, one the abolition of the land laws and another the improvement of cottages, is fatal to it as instrument nstrument of agitation. Men will not revolt on' behalf of a Social Science Congress. The effort to unite all " objects " in one great Association will only make that association weak, by introducing unmanageable differences of opinion, and Repeal and comfort cannot be heartily sought together. Repeal will be formidable when it is the sole cry, and the Irish have refused to make it that time and again. And finally, Mr. Parnell, who, , ' th ough he rarely originates, has Political instinct, has, it is stated, rejected this programme, has tried and has failed to use the labourers as his lever—it is the first axiom of revolutionary politics that the class most depressed will never e executive one in a rising—and intends to try once more the Parliamentary method which Mr. Dillon, it is reported d, Mr. Dillon, Mr. Da condemns as "milk and water." , Mr. Parnell alike, though in very different ways, retreat.
All this signifies that the remedial measures have told, that the restoration of strength to the law has told, and that the means for a new agitation are not immediately forthcoming. That is satisfactory, if only because, if the agitation had con- tinued, the English temper would have given way, and the Government would have been forced to try once more the military rule, which so invariably succeeds in securing every- thing except its objects ; but the satisfaction will, we fear, be more for the historian and the true friend of Ireland, than for politicians. The Irish farmers do not want action, but they will not object to talk, and for all the calm in Ireland, in Parliament the gale may be expected to rise higher than ever. The popular Irish Members will never give up their delightful and prominent position as the grit in the machine, until their constituencies compel them, and they know precisely how to play that part. Some of them are perfectly sincere, believing, in defiance of history, that it is possible to worry Pharaoh without hurting him, till he lets Israel go ; others are intent on keeping positions which, as in Mr. Ilealy's case, are far superior to any they could have reached without the Parliamentary revolt ; and all alike are determined to remain where all such men like to be, en evidence. An Irishman, like a Frenchman, can be devoted to a cause, but he wants the world to see that, without him, the cause would not succeed. The Parnellite Members will, therefore, as we antici- pate, renew their campaign against the House of Commons, and strive once more to re-establish their tyranny over debate. They will represent the Closure as an oppression, den ounce the Coercion Act and the Egyptian Expedition as at once needless and unjust, and pour upon the ears of the House a flood of " cases "taken both from Irish and Egyptian records, which will make legis- lative progress nearly impossible. They will fail, because they will find that a subtle change, due to the success abroad, has passed over the Government and the House of Commons, and they will be met in a different spirit from that of last Session; but they will not, for a time, we fear, perceive that alteration. It is the misfortune of Irishmen in dealing with Englishmen, as of Englishmen in dealing with Irishmen, that the effect of experience lasts too long, and that they cannot overtake mental changes quickly enough. It will take ten years to convince Englishmen that Ireland has ceased to be "a Catholic country," in the sense of a country swayed by its priesthood ; and it will take ten weeks to convince the Parnellites that the British Members are no longer prepared to be patient with Obstruction. We look forward, therefore, to peace in Ireland, broken, possibly, by isolated crimes, but punished crimes ; and to violent scenes in the House of Commons, ending in action of determined severity, and. producing a hollow peace, If Mr. Parnell were other than what he is, more devoted to Ireland and less actuated by dislike of England, we should have some hope even now, for he has a very singular chance placed in his hands. So great has been the relief in Ulster caused by the Land Act, that we believe Mr. Parnell might, for the first time since the Union, construct an Irish Parliament within the Commons, submit all Irish proposals to the 103 Members, and then bring them forward with the moral authority of their acceptance by a majority of the Irish Representation. The British Members would give to proposals so backed more than a serious attention, and unless they offended distinct principles, they would be very slow to reject them. Immense improvements, including several of those suggested by Mr. Devitt, such as new county and municipal government, the abolition of grand juries, the reform of the Magistracy, and many other solid measures, might, as we believe, be carried in this way, and yet leave Mr. Parnell free to recommence at pleasure an agitation for Home-rule. He would even increase the chances of Home- rule, for he would show conclusively what the English do not yet believe, that, whatever the dangers of that scheme, an Irish Parliament could legislate successfully for Ireland ; and this would be much gained. That would be the programme which a Grattan penetrated with a desire that Irishmen should rule Ireland would propose, but then that programme would not of itself injure 'England, and it will not, therefore, be attempted. The Government, by a wise mixture of remedial and coercive legislation, has secured comparative tranquillity in Ireland ; but it has still to pacify or to coerce the Irish Representation, and that, though not the more important, will prove, we fear, the more difficult operation of the two.
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