TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE COMING WAR.
I T is difficult, as we watch the situation in the East, not to receive the impression that the world is on the eve of one of those great movements which alter its history, and which are scarcely within human control. The combatants appear impelled to conflict by a will which is not their own. That Russia and Turkey should fight out unimpeded the quarrel of ages ; that the Christians of the East, crushed down for four hundred years, should have a chance of liberation ; that there should be a possibility that the destructive sway of the Ottoman caste should end, three unlikely conditions had to be realised, and behold they are all there ! It was necessary that the Ottomans should be obstinate beyond all example, should refuse all appearance of submission to Europe, should court war rather than surrender even in form their right to oppress,—and they have done all these things. It was necessary that a peaceful but absolute Czar should be unable to resist the determination of his submissive subjects to bear with Turkey no longer, should risk dangers which he fears more than any man in his Empire, and with weakened finances and neighbours far more formidable than ever, should gather up the whole forces of his Empire for a disinterested task,—and the Czar has been impelled by irresistible pressure to do it all. And finally, it was necessary that opinion in England should be in such a condition that war for Turkey was impossible, yet that a bad Government should be able to abstain from coercing Turks until they once more showed themselves reasonably submissive,—and even this has occurred. All things, even the most unexpected, have worked together for one end, until at last the one Northern race of Europe which has hitherto done nothing for mankind, which has shown itself selfish beyond precedent and op- pressive beyond need, stands eagerly ready, without hope
of conquest or reward, to expend its energy in a disin- terested effort -to- relieve mankind of an opprobrium, and to restos!. to civilisation the countries which were its ancient
=at. The result may disappoint us, the slowness which is the defect of Russian armies may once more render their valour useless, or the Semitic instinct of the man who unhappily rules England may induce him once more to save Asia from the grasp of Europe ; but it is difficult to resist the impression that the work will be done, done thoroughly, done well,—that before the snow falls again, the reign of the Osmanli in Europe, and perhaps also in Asia—for his deadly enemy, the Arab, will recover his energy when Constantinople falls—will be among the miseries that have been.
These are dreams, but at all events the meaningless chatter of diplomatists, unable to comprehend the first facts of the situation, which for more than twelve months has so wearied the world, draws at last to an end. There may be a week or a fortnight more of it, for the weather is not quite settled, and Russia wishes to be deficient in no courtesy ; but then the great cloud which has been gathering so long on the Turkish frontier will break in a furious storm, and the discussion will be exchanged for breathless watchfulness.
There may be one more lull still, for there are interests in Europe which are opposed to war so sincerely that they will grasp at the faintest hope of peace ; but be the chances ever so apparent, there is no solution to be hoped for save that which will come of battle. The Czar knows clearly now that the future of his dynasty depends on action in the direc- tion his people have commanded. The Turks, with their new obstinacy and their ancient courage, have resolved, like the Southern Slaveholders, that it is better to lose all fighting, than to perish slowly of the daily collisions between their institu- tions and modern civilisation. England, true at heart, but deceived by false guides, will remain murmuring but inactive until events declare themselves, and all the remaining Powers of Europe have agreed that peace and war have passed out of their hands. The war will come, and before it has lasted a fortnight the world will know very nearly how the war will go. The single question is the mobility of the Russian Army. If that can move rapidly in the field, if the wonderful force of cavalry accumulated in Bessarabia can act with the speed and the recklessness it would display in Northern Asia, and if the Russian Staff has profited by the lessons of the last thirteen years, the world may see a collapse as marvellous and as complete as that of the French Empire, and the Crescent be swept in a month for ever from all the lands north of the Balkans. If, on the other hand, the Russians are as tardy as they have often proved, if their cavalry is not risked, risked with a certain recklessness, and if the Ottomans can still check European armies in the open, then the war will drag on for months, to be ended by the weariness of Europe or some collapse at Constantinople. We believe, on the whole, that the former will be the result ; that the Russian Staff is prepared to make a modern war, that the numbers of effective and disciplined Turks will be found too few, and that the countless hordes from Asia will be as powerless as if they were Indian troops facing Englishmen in the plain. If there is one great defeat, one sign visible to Southern Europe and Asia that the Ottoman sword is broken, there will be such an uprising of the enemies of the caste, from Bosnian beys to Arab goatherds, as has not been seen since Constantinople fell. That speculation, however, is useless with events so near, and to-day our only business is to repeat the opinion with which we have wearied our readers for eighteen months, —that in spite of Lord Derby and Sir Henry Elliot and the Mahommedan newspapers and "Society," the Eastern Question is a real one, and is about to be settled by war.
Whether that war can be localised will depend mainly upon the action of Great Britain. If we stay out of it, or act on the right side—that is, on the side of the claim of Greece to Constantinople--there is no reason why it should spread. If Russia is defeated, all will go on as before, till the misery of mankind in Turkey has again become unendurable. If Russia wins, the result must be what it might have been at first,—the partition of European Turkey into smaller States, bound by some tie, however loose, to a federal head at Con- stantinople, be he a Slav, or a Greek, or an English Prince. Russia neither desires nor will be allowed to make annexations in Europe for herself ; and apart from annexations, there is not, and has not been from the first, as Mr. Gladstone clearly showed, any other solution possible. If Europe likes to fight about those States, of course it can, but there will for half a century be no conceivable reason for so doing. Russia wants nothing in that region but free access to the sea. Germany wants nothing at all except the freedom of the Danube. France has neither wish nor interest there. Italy, if she does want, must remain wanting for the time ; and what Austria wants will be amply supplied if an Austrian archduke, im accordance with the regular policy of the family, reigns as almost a king in Bosnia. There is no occasion for general war whatever, except, perchance, in the mind of Lord Beacons- field, no reason conceivable why Russian and Ottoman should not decide by themselves the fate of Eastern Europe, with the datum granted that the Greek, and not the Slav, is heir of the city from which he ruled so long. At all events, there is no reason whatever, till Turkey is cleared to the Balkans, why any Power should even prepare for war.
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