MRS THATCHER'S FIGURES

Vincent Hanna discovers why

the Prime Minister does not want an election before 1988

I WAS in that part of the dream where the stewardess says, 'We are now entering the Government's fourth year, fasten your seat belts please . . .', when the telephone rang. It was him again, my friend (with Frindall-McKenzie's syndrome) who knows everything about politics and cricket.

'I've got a real cracker this time!' he said. 'What is the significance of 4 January, 1988?'

'Don't tell me . . . it's the tenth anniversary of Ian Botham's first disciplin- ary hearing.'

'Always one for the facetious answer aren't we? . . . Guess again.'

'Give me a clue.'

'All right, who is the longest serving Prime Minister in modern times?' he de- manded.

'That's easy,' I thought. 'Lord Salis- bury', I said.

'No, no, Salisbury was in and out three times, I meant in one continuous stint.' His tone was becoming triumphalist. I felt deflated. He has that effect on me.

'Herbert Asquith!' came the cry. 'He served for eight years and 245 days, a record that has stood for 70 years . . . unless . .

'You don't mean . . .?' I faltered.

'Mrs Thatcher!' he shouted. 'Maggie gets in the Guinness Book of Records on 4 January 1988. And ask yourself this, squire: Who, but who, is going to persuade her to go to the country before the aforesaid, record-breaking, date?'

'Well,' I said, 'Norman Tebbit has been going on about the summer of '87.'

'Too right he has,' said my friend, 'and if he keeps it up it will earn him a cement overcoat, especially with the disastrous way things are going.'

And off he went contentedly.

Maybe, I thought, he has a point. Who in their right mind would ask any Prime Minister to pass up a chance like that? What arguments would they use? Whose entrails would they inspect?

'By-elections?' I said confidently to my wife over dinner in a restaurant. 'Elections are what political soothsayers must inspect. Elections!' I went straight home and looked everything up, just in case he rang back.

Mrs Thatcher has contested 29 by- elections in seven years of government, which is a record in itself. It took Messrs Heath and Wilson three and a half years to acquire 29, Macmillan did it in under two. Mrs Thatcher lost eight out of her first 29, but then so did Ted Heath. Wilson lost nine in 1964-67. More interesting is the fact that in her first 29 contests Mrs Thatcher's share of the vote has fallen on average by 12 per cent compared with the previous general election. Bad? Maybe; but not unusual. Harold Wilson also dropped 12 per cent in his first 29, and Heath and Macmillan each went down by 11 per cent.

So I was quite pleased, when the phone rang at midnight. 'Did you know,' I said smugly, 'that things are far from desperate for the Government?' And I told him why. He was not impressed.

'The trouble with you media people is that you are essentially trivial,' he said. 'You want to look at her annual perform- ance, that's the in thing, squire. And 1985-86 for Mrs T has been by any measurement of by-elections a disaster.'

'Nation shall flog things unto nation.' 'Has it?' I asked.

'A 24-carat stinkeroo,' he said happilY• 'Consider . . . She's played five, lost three, and drawn one, and the drop in vote share has been no less than 16 per cent.'

I suddenly saw the glimmering of an opening. '1985-86 has been the third year of the Prime Minister's second term, has it not?' I asked.

'Yes. So what?' Already he sounded less sure of himself.

'Well, how does it compare with other third years?' I asked.

'I'll call you back,' he said. I spent a rather frantic 24 hours in the BBC's election unit, checking print-outs, with constant reference to the work of the estimable Mr Fred Craig, the idea being to make it appear that I kept such informa- tion at my fingertips. In fact a drop of 16 per cent is by no means exceptional for governments in their third year of office. I even drew up a table for all government third years since the war, both for by-elections and opinion polls. It looked like this: Percentage change in government supPort from previous general election:

Average of Average of

by-elections monthly Gallup P°115

Govt formed in third year in third year Lab 1945 —2 —6 Con 1951 +0.2 —2 Con 1955 —15 —11 Con 1959 —19 —12 Lab 1966 —18 —16 Con 1970 —16 —8 Lab 1974 —15 —4 Con 1979 —18 —15 Con 1983 —16 —14

So 1985-85 was not, by any means, the, worst third year on record. But then, .1 thought, Mrs Thatcher has had some reallY horrendous results, Crosby, Croydon, Ryedale, maybe they outweigh all those decent averages. Back to the election unit; up all night with Fred Craig and I had cracked it. Mrs Thatcher has contested only two by-elections in which the fall in her vote share has been more than 20 Per, cent, Warrington in 1981 and Brecon and Radnor last year. They were what we in the trade scientifically call 'smack in the Gob', or SG results. Ted Heath had seven SGs in his first 29, as did Wilson. Even dear old Superalae had six. Brecon and Radnor was Mrs T worst SG with a drop of 21 per cent. What about Rochdale in 1958, where the Tory vote collapsed by 32 per cent, or Torring- ton with 28 per cent, and what about Bermondsey in 1983 with a Labour (and British all-corners') SG record drop of 38 per cent? 'Follow that, squire.' I thought. Mind you, the trends don't help Mrs Thatcher, her patent problem is that her performance is getting worse just as the Labour Party is experiencing one of its surges. Her 1-1°-, popularity with the voters is being matched by a sudden appreciation of Neil Kinnock•

But, what the hell, what's a trend or two between friends? Never mind the politics, the main thing is to get the statistics right. As usual my telephone rang very late. `Did you know,' he said, 'that the average total of . .

`Never mind that garbage,' I shouted and launched into a snappy presentation of the facts. It took about 12 minutes in all. Not many people know that,' I said. There was a long pause. `Have you added up all the votes gained by the Tories in by-elections in this parlia- ment?'

`Well no,' I said, 'But . .

`I thought not. For your information it Comes to 167,693.'

`So what?' I retorted, more bravely than I felt.

`So what? It just happens to be the total of all the runs scored by Jack Hobbs, Don Bradman, Herbert Sutcliffe, and Gary Sobers.'

`Exactly the same?' I asked incredu- lously.

`Well 64 runs more actually.' `I suppose you can't always be spot on,' I said faintly. I should have known better.

`I do a lot better than your exit polls,' he said, '64 just happens to be the number of first-class centuries scored by Bobby Simp- son. Bet you didn't know that.' I said I didn't.