THE OUTLOOK IN - FOREIGN AFFAIRS. T HE prospect in the Balkans
has not often been more gloomy than now, but happily there is no part of the world in which black clouds disperse so quickly. It is always April weather in the Balkans. At the moment the most thundery part of the sky is in Bulgaria. The Kotchana massacre has had its calculated effect. There is little doubt that the Bulgarian Internal Organization procured a massacre of Bulgars by exploding bombs. The Organization knows that Turkish officials when provoked can be trusted to dis- grace themselves, and it is willing to sacrifice the lives of its countrymen in order by this means to attract the attention of Europe. The question now is whether Bulgaria can be restrained. M. Gueshoff's Ministry is behaving with exemplary prudence. But the people have got it into their heads, rightly or wrongly, that the King is on their side, and that clamour, loud enough and sufficiently prolonged, will compel the Government to declare war. And new incidents have come to the assistance of the war party since the Kotchana massacre. Bulgarian soldiers on the frontier were fired on by Turks and one of them was killed ; and at Doiran, a small town between Salonika and Seres, an explosion has occurred like that at Kotchana, and many persons are said to have been killed—the Turks say by the explosion, the Bulgars say by massacre. M. Gueshoff has won his battles of prudence before now in the face, apparently, of the whole country, and. it is not unlikely that he will do so again.
But Bulgaria is by no means the only country whose nerves are tingling dangerously. Servia is rapidly import-. ing ammunition, and is second only to Bulgaria in her expressions of indignation against Turkey. The Vienna correspondent of the Times says that two hundred Serbs have lately been murdered, wounded, or abducted by Turks on the Turco-Servian and Turco-Montenegrin frontiers, and that twenty Serb villages have been burned. Nor is Greece much behindhand in her anger over the alleged grievances of Greeks in the Turkish Empire. But apparently the organization of indignation is being conducted not by the Government—for the sage M. Venizelos is still at its head —but by unofficial societies, the creation of which Greeks have brought to the point of a fine art. Macedonia is as unhappy as ever that unfortunate province has been. As for Albania, if it is quiet it certainly is not pacified.
Such is the material which a spark may easily set aflame. As though in anticipation of the break-up of Turkey the newspapers of Europe have been searching the pages of diplomacy to discover exactly how their respective countries will stand when the crash comes. The Temps says that Italy has arranged to join Russia as against Austria- Hungary and Germany (an extraordinarily important statement if it is true) ; Bulgaria and Servia are known to have an agreement, while Greece has become, wonder- ful to say, sympathetic towards them both ; Turkish newspapers profess to give the terms of an Austro- Bulgarian Treaty, while Russian papers give an alleged Austro-Montenegrin agreement. To remedy this general tension, confusion, and alarm comes the Berch- told proposal, of which we know very little except that its general principle is what is called "progressive decentralization." After Herr von Bethmann-Hollweg and Count Berchtold had met at Buchlau—in the same house in which Count Aerenthal and M. Isvolsky carried on the conversations which prefaced the Austrian coup of 1908—a joint announcement was made that Germany and Austria-Hungary were perfectly agreed on a policy unde- fined. All questions of the moment, we are informed, were discussed, especially those of the Near East. But the situation now is apparently different from that of 1908 in this respect, that Bulgaria no longer fully agrees with Austria-Hungary. Bulgaria is evidently afraid that the "progressive decentralization" in Turkey proposed by Count Berchtold might only serve to guarantee to the Turks the opportunity to misgovern the Bulgars of Macedonia indefinitely. Therefore Bulgaria has appealed to the Treaty of Berlin—by a highly ironical stroke, for she ignored its existence in 1908—and demanded that Article 23 shall be put into effect and a real measure of autonomy be given to Macedonia.
Turkey may very well say that she cannot be expected to bow down to the Treaty of Berlin when nearly every other nation in Europe has violated it. We confess to much sympathy with that very logical argument. We fear that Europe is about to be overtaken by Nemesis for the wild era of no-law in 1908. No country can tear up treaties without repenting it later. Whatever the Powers decide to do in Turkey—if anything—they will unquestion- ably feel that they have deprived themselves of the moral sanctions they might have had. For all that, however, the Powers may find it convenient to act as though the Treaty of Berlin had had no holes pierced in it, and to remember that it makes them really responsible for Macedonia.
The greatest danger of the situation seems to us to be this, that Austria-Hungary, having put forward a proposal which is probably too vague for any general agreement among the Powers—and in importance extraordinarily out of proportion to the fanfare of trumpets she has sounded— will be able to say, if the Powers do fail to agree, that she has done her best for the amenities of Europe. and that now she is compelled by circumstances to step alone into Turkey and do whatever she wishes. In that event we know that Germany will be, as ever, the supporter of Austria-Hungary. In fine, the great central European Powers, with a studied appearance of acting as the pious representatives of Europe, will pursue their policy without reference to the susceptibilities of other nations. The old issue between the Triple Alliance on the one side and the Triple Entente on the other will be re- opened, although recent events, such as the announcement made after the meeting of the German Emperor and the Emperor of Russia at Baltic Port, suggested that Germany had at last recognized the inevitability of the present equilibrium and the usefulness of the Triple Entente in maintaining it. The old conflict would break out again, with Turkey as the bone of contention. That is the danger, and it is a great danger. Necessity and honour alike re- quire that we should not be divided from Russia if her interests and those of Austria-Hungary in the Balkans are found to be suddenly and awkwardly diverging. France will feel with Great Britain. The Triple Entente is the foundation of peace, and we must do nothing whatever in the Balkan negotiations to imperil it.
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