A FAR-AWAY memory comes to us of an eminent explorer's description
of the doubts which for some time he entertained as to whether a body of water that he was following was a tributary of a great lake which he had lately left, or an outlet from that inland sea towards a distant ocean. At one spot the current, such as it was, seemed lakeward ; not very far away it was plainly flowing in the opposite direction ; while between those points there was a dense growth of reed and cane which made any certain observation practically impossible. Somewhat similarly, those who now watch the Russian situation—so distant and obscure, though the telegraph, when working, gives it a delusive appearance of nearness— are unable to form any clear conclusion as to the direction in which events will ultimately be determined. In a few months' time, it may be, there will be no doubt as to the future set of the current of Russian national life ; but at the present moment it is impossible to say with any con- fidence whether it is heading backwards towards the sands of reaction, or moving ,forward. to become a ferti- lising river of liberty, or gathering force for the rush of a wild torrent of destruction. This gloomy uncertainty, which is felt by all who study the divergent and con- flicting tendencies which are exhibited in the news from Russia published from day to-day, is reflected in the despatches of the best-informed newspaper correspondents, and very markedly in the views given by Count Witte to the representative of the Daily Telegraph during the present week. To a large extent Count Witte's observations amount to an indictment of all the parties favourable to liberty with order, and of the reactionaries also, for not tional principles into the government of the Empire. The Manifesto, he says, and his own accompanying Memorandum—which, it may be remembered, was counter- signed by the Czar, and had all the air of being inspired by a genuine intention to make Russian freedom a reality —were "written on the supposition that Russian society was imbued with elementary political good sense, moral courage, and social instincts. But, instead of recognising that the great reforms heralded by the Manifesto must take time for their evolution, "sections of the community, nay, whole classes, went to work systematically to annihilate their own means of livelihood, and ruin themselves and the entire nation " ; and those who did not join in these proceedings yet withheld all assistance and moral support from the Government. Count Witte analyses the elements in the community which are opposed to anarchy—some regarding the Constitution as much too liberal, and desiring its repeal ; some thinking it good, but too liberal for the moment, and therefore to be sus- pended; some thinking it not liberal enough and requiring essential additions; and so forth—and maintains that they have all joined in unfriendly and weakening criticism of the Government, instead of, as they ought, joining hands to support it as the one bulwark against anarchy. And all the time the revolutionists, knowing their own minds, and without scruple as to ends, have been taking advantage of the situation, and pressing forward with a singleness of aim and a repression of sectional divergences which the parties of order, he intimates, would do well to copy. Indeed, unless they do so, Count Witte makes it clear that he cannot answer for the future.
In the earlier part of a long interview Count Witte appears to have conveyed the impression that unless Russian society gave him the support he needed in "solving the problem by moral means," he would have to hand it over to others who would save the country from anarchy by methods of force. This impression as to his own personal intentions is somewhat modified by the later portion of the interview, published on Thursday, in which he expresses entire confidence in the loyalty of the Army to the Czar under all conditions, and also en- deavours to reassure the foreign creditors of Russia as to her fidelity to her financial engagements whatever may betide. But in the closing sentences transmitted by the Daily Telegraph correspondent the Russian Minister strenuously reasserts that "the conduct of the Constitu- tional groups is literally suicidal," and that "public order will not be re-established by peaceful means until and unless these parties take a lesson from their adversaries."
It is impossible to deny that these may be the genuine opinions of Count Witte, but it appears certain that, if they give an exhaustive view of his state of mind, he is not in possession of that grasp of the essential needs of his country which alone would enable him to be her deliverer at the present tremendous crisis. For his review of the history of the year omits to notice two features which, unquestionably, will be regarded as of vital consequence by every historian of that fateful period. In the first place, the Manifesto of October 30th was itself an obvious surrender to the duress exercised by the general strike. Without the creation and use of that extraordinary instru- ment of pressure there can be no reasonable doubt that the makeshift Constitution announced in August, with its purely consultative Duma, chosen by a franchise so limited as to be a mere mockery of the aspirations of the people for repre- sentative government, would have been the limit of Imperial concession. It was therefore the Czar, and not his people, or any sections of them, who was responsible for the creation among them of the belief that he would yield, in the last resort, with no reference to the merits of the questions at issue, to any demands backed by a popular movement laying its hands on the whole machinery of economic life. In the second place, in order to give the Constitutionalists, of various sections, any sure ground on which they could stand in supporting the Govern- ment against the cry of the revolutionists for a. clean sweep of the whole ancient system of rule in Russia, it was absolutely essential that the Govern- ment should at once give unmistakable guarantees of its genuine purpose to carry out the great reforms which it had promised, and which were so absolutely contrary to all its former practice. Unfortunately, that was pre- cisely what it failed to do. After a day or two of unmolested rejoicing over the terms of the Manifesto, crowds of respectable citizens began to be assailed in various parts of the Empire, when celebrating their new liberties, by the lowest of the population, who, as it is con- fidently asserted, were urged on by the reactionary classes, and even encouraged by the police and supported by the soldiers. On all the horrors which then ensued Count Witte apparently has nothing to say, nor of other acts of the authorities by which the Czar's assurances of liberty of speech and meeting to his subjects were falsified. The Constitutionalists, looking at these things, might surely be excused if they felt it impossible to go before the country staking their reputations, and perhaps risking their lives, as declared believers in the good faith of the Government. It may well be that the reactionaries, as seems to be suggested in Count Witte's recent statement, also adopted a hostile attitude towards him, and made it extremely difficult for him to pursue Liberal courses. But in view of their action, and of the purely interested motives by which it was commonly inspired, it is futile for him to suggest that law-abiding reformers should "join hands" with them.
Count Witte, in a word, must choose between the party of reaction and the party of orderly progress. It is conceivable, if not probable, that he might yet by a clear and straightforward policy, in accordance with the principles to which he committed himself at the end of October, win the confidence and support of the bulk of Constitutionalists, and so secure what is the only hope of a pacific solution of the problem which confronts him. But it may be already too late ; and in any case, the most recent acts of his Government have a very sinister appear- ance. In particular, the enactment of a new provisional Press Law of a highly arbitrary character, bringing back many of the worst features of the old regime, may well bring despair to the most devoted adherents of orderly reform. The publication at the same time of compliments paid by the Czar to the Cossacks for their recent services —services which are associated in the minds of decent citizens with a savage negation of every principle of liberty and law—cannot fail to produce a widespread im- pression that, even if he desires it, Count Witte is power- less to give a Liberal direction to the course of adminis- tration. If so, the revolutionary forces, whose leaders are unknown, but whose rank-and-file know well how to obey, will inevitably gain a powerful accession to their strength, and the chances of a resort to violence on a large scale will be correspondingly increased.
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