TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE EUROPEAN SITUATION.
TITRKEY has accepted Austria's offer of £2,300,000 as compensation for the annexation of the provinces. That is good news for all who care for the peace of the world. It is true, no doubt, that only one phase of the Balkan crisis is settled by Turkey and Austria-Hungary coming to terms, but it is by far the most dangerous phase. It is almost certain that the good example set by Austria- Hungary will now be followed by Bulgaria, and that a compromise will be arrived at which will be fair to both parties. What the exact sum will be in this case it is, of course, impossible for us to say. It looks, however, as if Turkey will obtain, all told, something over eight millions sterling in consideration for the final severance from her Empire of Bulgaria, Eastern Rumelia, Bosnia, and Herze- govina. That such a sum will prove exceedingly useful to Turkey is obvious, for the chief danger to the Young Turkish movement is that of finance. The sins of the old regime were so many and so great in the moral sphere that its sins of commission and omission in finance have not attracted due attention. Yet, as a matter of fact, they were quite as flagrant and quite as ruinous. Every kind of folly was committed by the Sultan as regards both the raising of revenue and its expenditure. Valuable assets were got rid of in the most reckless and improvident manner in order to realise a little ready money, and at the same time the country was committed to the expendi- ture of large .sums in the future on the most onerous terms. The kilometric guarantees in the matter of railway construction provide the capital example. Anything, then, that will help to ease the financial situation is ver:r much to be welcomed. The new regime is being preEeed for expenditure on all sides, and simultaneously the peasantry and the population of the Empire generally expect remissions of the financial burdens which have hitherto weighed upon them so heavily. In the East nsen are very apt to judge their rulers by the demands of the tax- collectors, and it is therefore most important that new taxes shall not be imposed at the present moment. What amount of money out of the sums that Turkey will in the end receive from Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria will be actually available for current needs, and how much will be required for paying off Debt, we are unable to estimate, but it cannot be doubted that the financial situation must be improved by the payments in question.
Though the problem of the provinces, as far as Turkey is concerned, has been settled, and though the Bulgarian negotiations are not likely to give any very great trouble, there remain the claims of Servia and Montenegro. In the case of Montenegro we feel convinced that °Austria- Hungary will find it worth her while to act in a, generous and friendly spirit. As we pointed out last week, Montenegrin excitement and anxiety can to a very great extent be appeased by concessions in the matter of Austrian supervision of the coast-line of the principality, But such concessions, though they will be very greatly valued by the Montenegrins, will not do any injury to Austria-Hungary, or detract from her own security. Since Montenegro has no navy, and. since Austria- Hungary's squadrons dominate the eastern shore of the Adriatic, Austria-Hungary will be able at any moment to resume her position of supremacy should war be threatened with the mountain Slate. Thus Austria-Hungary may soothe the amour propre of Montenegro without in the very least weakening her own position of control. That control belongs to her, not by virtue of articles in Treaties, but through time fact of sea power. It remains to consider the question of how Servia is to be placated. We fear that, as far as the larger aspirations of Servia are con- cerned, there is no possibility of satisfying the Serbs. If, however, Austria-Hungary is able to grant the provinces a reasonable Constitution, and to prove to the members of the Orthodox Church, not only that their religion will not be interfered with, but that no attempt will be made to make converts, to the Roman Church by the exercise of official influence, a great deal will have been done to pacify Servian sentiment. Servia may feel sore and aggrieved, but she will not be so mad as to provoke hostilities as long as the population of Bosnia and Herzegovina are fairly treated and the Greek Church placed under no practical disabilities, No doubt there will remain in the Balkan Peninsula many points of difficulty and danger, bat the immediate peace of Europe will have been secured, and that is all we can hope for in a state of affairs so complicated and fraught with so many formidable possibilities. To have escaped an appeal to the sword, for the time at any rate, is an immense point gained. Before we leave the subject of the European settlement we desire to say a word as to the Cretan question. That question is so thorny that the first impulse of any respon- sible journalist is to leave it severely alone. We cannot feel absolutely certain, however, that such an ostrich-like policy, though temporarily convenient, is necessarily a wise one. Since the matter has been raised, there is something to be said for settling it, and not leaving it as a source of future danger. What has just been happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina shows how dangerous it is to "huddle up" a half-settlement of such questions. Though the half- settlement arranged between Austria and Turkey in 1878 lay dormant for thirty years, it very nearly caused an explosion at the end of that period. • That is the last thing that any one can desire to see happen in the case of Crete. Might it not be possible for the Powers respon- sible to ribt as honest brokers between the Greeks and Turkey, and arrange for Crete to be incorporated with the Grecian Kingdom under some scheme analogous to that which is to take place as regards Bosnia and Herzegovina, or Bulgaria and Eastern Rumelia,—that is, by means of a money payment made by Greece to Turkey ? We realise that there are many difficulties in the way of such an arrangement, and that it may at the moment seem impossible to the Turkish Government to adopt any such policy, even though the chief Turkish statesmen might favour such a course. The huge public meeting recently held in the Hippodrome at Con- stantinople, and the appeal to the Grand Vizier which was the outcome of that *fleeting, and hit answer, show unquestionably that feeling is very strong in the matter, and that there is considerable risk that if the Cretan question were now to enter on an acute, stage, the position of the Young Turks might become embarrassed and the forces of reaction strengthened. At the same time, the policy of laissez-faire is very dangerous. As far as we can see, the question is one of the balance of evil. All we desire to do on the present occasion is to suggest that the wisdom of settling the matter now, or at any rate of settling the principles upon which it is ultimately to be settled, ought to be very seriously considered. If the statesmen who are responsible come to the conclusion that the dangers of raising the matter now are greater than those of leaving it unsettled, then all friends of peace must bow to their decision. The policy of letting sleeping dogs lie, though sometimes a very wise one, is not always or in every case sound. It is sometimes necessary to consider what are the chances of the dog waking up of his own accord, and possibly waking up at the most inconvenient moment.
Previous page
