Commonwealth and Foreign
DEADLOCK IN THE FREE STATE
By R. B. D. FRENCH
Dublin.
THE result of the general election in the Free State was a severe shock to the supporters of Mr. de Valera. His party, Fianna Fail, was confident that it would be returned to the new Dail of 138 members with a majority at least as large proportionately as it had enjoyed in the old House of 153. The first results seemed to justify this confidence, although the writing on the wall might have been seen in Clare, where a farmer standing as an Independent won a seat from the party in Mr. de Valera's own stronghold, but in the end everything turned upon whether the Government could win a seat from the Cosgrave party in West Cork and secure the two to one majority which seemed probable on paper in the new th'ree-member constituency of South- East Cork. It failed in both. West Cork, which is Cosgravite country, returned " no change," and Labour won the third seat in the South East. The final result was Fianna Fail 69, Cosgrave 48, Labour 13 and Independent 8, and Mr. de Valera had lost his majority.
Fianna Fail can claim that at the worst it has lost seats only in exact proportion to its strength in the larger Dail, but in fact the election was fought on changed conditions which greatly favoured the party in power. The alterations of the electoral, divisions had created fifteen three-member constituencies, and Irish elections show that proportional representation does not reflect the wishes of the electorate so accurately in these as in constituencies returning five members or more. Actually, in nine of the fifteen Fianna Fail returned two members out of three. The abolition of the university vote also gave the party a clear gain of two seats, or possibly, in view of the swing away from repub- licanism in the National University, of four. An election .fought on the old division of constituencies would have resulted in a heavier loss for Mr. de Valera.
The republican party has suffered a setback, but the result =nut be regarded simply as a largely increased vote for the Commonirealth connexion ; for the alternatives of dominion or republic were not offered to the people. If anything is clear, in Irish politics today it is that republicanism as an 'immediate issue is dead. The Minister who silenced a heckler by offering him a hundred pounds if he could find the King's name in the new Constitution laid himself open to the reply that it would be no less difficult to find the republic in it. Fianna Fail, except in holding out the Constitution as the charter of a people now freed from foreign influences, avoided the republic altogether. In so doing it offered.an opportunity which Labour joyfully accepted. The advance of the latter may be explained in part by its pro- gramme of social legislation to bring down prices and combat unemployment, and in part by the growth of the protected industries, which has tended to make the country " Labour- conscious." But perhaps it played its strongest card when it represented itself as the only real republican party, and the only group to vote against the Bill recognising King George which was passed after the abdication of last December. Many electors who have begun to despair of Mr. de Valera's republicanism, but who are far from ready to transfer their votes to Mr. Cosgrave, must have supported Labour in order to teach the Government a lesson.
Mr. Cosgrave's party, however, has done remarkably well. A year ago it was still paying lip-service to republicanism, and a heavy defeat seemed certain. _ Now the pressure of events has forced it to come out unequivocally as a dominion party, and Mr. Cosgrave's firm, repudiation of any republican leanings—although his attitude towards the Crown remains evasive and temporising—has certainly done it more gOod than harm. It has lost fewer seats in proportion than Fianna Fail, and its total of first preference votes is considerably higher than that gained in 1933 by the Cosgrave group and the old Centre party which subsequently became merged in it. But for its disastrous attitude towards foreign policy its poll would have been larger still. Mr. de Valera's firm stand against the pressure brought upon him to recognise Franco's government in Spain has gained him many friends in liberal circles. The return of General O'Duffy's " Irish Brigade " shortly before the election might have caused a swing against Mr. de Valera, but in fact it played into his hands. The arrival of the unlucky " bandera " was marred—as most attempts at the grand manner are marred in Ireland—by ludicrous anticlimax, and as the men passed through glum and silent crowds it was sufficiently evident that Mr. de Valera had no longer anything to fear from a movement which at one time had threatened him seriously.
At the election the country was asked to vote also for or against the New Constitution. There was at no time any likelihood that it would be defeated, but the poll against it was surprisingly heavy in view of its concessions to nationalist and religious sentiment. The vote in favour of it represents about 39 per cent. of the electorate and gives a majority of 158,000, but if most of the enormous number of spoiled or blank papers are regarded as adverse votes the majority sinks to little more than 50,000, The real weakness of Mr. de Valera's position is exposed when it is remembered that this Constitution is intended ultimately not for the Free State alone but as the instrument of govern- ment of a united Ireland. His boast has been that when an end is made of partition it will not be necessary to alter a comma. He has to consider now that there would be a majority of at least two to one against it in the Six Counties if a plebiscite could be taken there.
Since Mr. de Valera has no majority to force the Con- stitution through at an earlier date, it is likely that he will try to continue in office during the six months which must elapse before it automatically becomes law. This he can do only by winning over one or two Independents or with the support of Labour, and Labour has announced plainly enough that support will be forthcoming if Fianna Fail behaves itself and not otherwise. After five years in command of an absolute majority of well-drilled if almost inarticulate back-benchers, he is unlik:ly to remain patient under such restraint, particularly if Labour should adopt the patronising attitude which it threatens. At best his position would be precarious ; for a division on unemployment or the cost of living might cause the fall of the Government at any moment. A coalition between Fianna Fail and the Cosgrave party is unlikely in view of the bitterness of party feeling which still exists, and because both parties no doubt have their eyes upon the fruits of office. An appeal to the country within a year seems at present to be Mr. de Valera's best way out. If he could first negotiate an economic settlement with England he might steal Mr. Cosgrave's thunder and deprive his party of much of its reason for existence, but it would entail the eating of many words and might prove disastrous. Although his supporters express confidence that a majority is his for the asking, the election has two dis- quieting features for them. The first is that the decline in their fortunes has come about in spite of an extremely elaborate and able organisation, whereas the maintenance of their position by the Cosgravites has been achieved with almost no organisation at all. The second is that the com- parative failure of the Constitution, which is regarded as Mr. de Valera's own handiwork, seems to indicate a decline in the personal prestige of the man who was introduced at election meetings by the rather ominous title of " leader of the Irish people."
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