THE LATEST SCARE OF ALL.
WE wonder if the relations between Germany and Great Britain are becoming a little "strained 1" It seems incredible, as the interests of the two countries do not clash at any known point, and as no man in office has even hinted at a
situation which would greatly interest the people, but the language of a good many Tories seems to be dictated by a perception of some such state of affairs. Chief Baron Kelly is not a Minister or a statesman either, but he went out of his way the other day to express his apprehensions of Germany in the strangest fashion. He had to welcome the new Lord Mayor, and instead of talking to him about the importance of his office, and the antiquity of London, and the value of muni- cipal institutions in training men for soli-gov ornment, he broke out into a furious ,nal a crepes tirade about the possibility of Germany and Russia combining for the " partition " of Turkey on the Polish plan. As we should like greatly to see Germany doing some of the world's greater work, and civilising Asiatics or Africans, the idea did not greatly alarm us ; but it evidently worried the Chief Baron, and was considered by him as ad- mirably calculated to worry the British people, and he must have been considerably disappointed with the slight effect of his speech. The Standard again, usually sensible, a few days ago was defying Russia and Germany together in the most heroic manner ; and the Telegraph complains of German conduct in sending arms to Russia as acrimoniously as if Birmingham would hesitate to send rifles to Turkey, or as if English- men had not been begging for commissions at Constanti-
nople. Very fairly informed Conservatives, again, will tell you, with awe in their voices, that Germany wants Holland, and that she has given Russia carte blanche in the South-East, on condition that Prince Bismarck shall not be in- terfered with on the North-West. And now, here is the Pall Mall Gazette telling us all, in an article penetrated by a certain tone of conviction, that Germany is disquieted by the idea that France may attack her through Belgium, and is, in consequence, advising Belgium in a very persistent and menacing way to renounce the guarantee of Europe in favour of a German Protectorate, to adopt the German military system, to place her army at the disposal of Germany—at least, if it is not so placed, the introduction of the German system is a superfluous hardship—and in return to receive, while enjoying independence in domestic affairs, an absolute German guarantee, made effective by the presence of the enor- mous German armies at her back. And the writer hints that these invitations and menaces, if without influence on the Belgian people, are not without effect upon the rulers of the State.
What can it all mean ? That Germany should be suspected by the partisans of the Turks of intending to partition Turkey is natural enough, for Germany is friendly to Russia and unfriendly to Turkey, and that is a basis quite broad enough for any amount of superstructure. Germany wants every- thing nice, and is of course longing for Kezanlik as a rose- garden, as well as for Heligoland as a marine villa. The Emperor of Germany, too, though a soldier, has more feeling for civilisation than Lord Beaconsfield has, and sometimes says things about the murder of Russian sol- diers and the treatment of the Turkish wounded which seem to Lord Beaconsfield's admirers quite hostile to Turkey, and therefore, of course, morally very wrong, Turkey being a " plucky Power," and deserving of all support from men " who live in the open air, know only one language, and never open a book." A story about German designs in the East is therefore intelligible, and as for Holland, that is an old and in one way a true tale. Prince Bismarck would no doubt greatly like to secure ships, sailors, colonies, and commerce for Germany at a blow, as ho would do if Holland could be induced voluntarily to enter the Federation. We do not believe that he is prepared, for any such object, to overrun the toughest little State in Europe, to risk the destruction of the properly lie envies—for the Dutch would out their dykes—or to bring on a war, as he inevitably would, with England and France combined ; but as for per- suasion, he has a right to persuade the whole world, China included, to enter his Foderatien, if he can. But Belgium ? What should he want with Belgium, or what has he to offer her f What can he get in the way of security from Belgium that he could not obtain from a couple of now first-class fortresses behind her ? A now Army ? The Belgian Army could not stop the French half as well when avowedly German as when neutral, and therefore no object of just or decent hostility to the French soldiers. A new range of fortresses I Surely Germany could build them, and man them, and supply them, a good deal more easily her- self on her own land. The only effect of a Protectorate of Belgium, considered as a, measure of German defence, would
French army from invading Germany by the easiest path. The moment the new arrangement was completed, if completed voluntarily, England would withdraw her guarantee, and Bel- gium would then be, for war purposes, a German province, lying, both from its formation and from the sympathies of its people, singularly open to French attack. Germany would have to defend Belgium, instead of marching on Paris,—that is, to fight a long war, instead of a short one. We confess we are unable to believe in any design of the kind as a serious project, but suppose, for a moment, that it is entertained, that the German Staff, who understand that matter so much better than we do, really desire a Protectorate of Belgium, what has the German Chancellor to offer the peaceful little State in return for the loss of her independ- encee--for it would be lost upon the one point Belgians sin- cerely care about—the extinction of her neutrality, and a severe system of military conscription ? The certainty of protection for her nationality for ever Not a bit of it. If Germany were beaten, she would give up Belgium much sooner than Alsace, for Belgium, besides being Catholic and half- French, would not be an integral portion of the Empire, to be fought for to the last. The Chancellor, according to the story, does not even propose absorption, and considering the strength which Belgium would add to the Ultramontane party, and the wealth she would find for Poles, Partioularists, and Socialists, he. would probably reject her adhesion, if offered on such terms. Is it, then, protection against the evils of war that Germany
offers Yes, says the Pall Mall Gazette, that is the bribe which the German statesmen are offering. But how can they offer it ? A Gorman Protectorate for Belgium does not defend Belgium against the chance of becoming a cock-pit, but invites France to make her the cock-pit in the very next war, first, because she would be the most accessible province of Germany ; and secondly, because her provinces would be, if France won, the easiest compensa- tion for her to claim and for Germany to give up. Belgium is safer now. It is easy to argue, as the Pall Mall makes the Germans do, that the British guarantee is worthless because England has few soldiers, but is it worth- less in the event of war ? Is there any State in Europe which, being at war with so great a Power as Franco or so 'great a Power as Germany, would desire in addition a twenty years' war with England ? • The French Generals surely have moral audacity enough, and Napoleon III. knew England as well as any foreigner is likely to do, yet both submitted at Sedan. rather than break violently through the invisible barrier which protects Belgium. Surely, as far as safety from war is con- cerned, Belgium is better off now than she could be under any other arrangement, the German menace of occupation, like the French menace, involving the assumption that soldiers hke the best German or French Generals would in the midst of a great war rather face England than not. We say nothing of Austria, which if England and France moved in such a quarrel would either have to be watched by armies, or compen- sated very heavily for remaining quiet. No doubt the political position of Belgium is not perfect. Neither is that of Holland, or of Denmark, or of Sweden, or of any Power which if in- vaded must depend mainly upon alliances ; but still it is tolerably good, quite as good as that of any of the Powers we have named, and with this special advantage,—that the Belgian people if driven to extremity could join a Power with a strong attraction for them, and for good or evil .share a fate which can never be less historically than a great one. Why should Belgium yield, or its ardently Catholic King make of himself a Gorman Prefect / We suppose we must say a word upon the danger to Eagland in- volved in such a project, but it is very difficult to say it. There are misfortunes in the political as in the natural world for which there is no remedy, and if Belgium likes by a proper constitutional vote taken in freedom to vote herself part of Germany or of China, this country could do nothing but look on and wonder. As to ravaging Belgium for so doing, we should have about as mesh right to ravage France for making the Treaty ceding Alsace and Lorraine. We should have no moral right to do anything, and must perforce it still, and congratulate ourselves that great events usually bring their own unexpected compensations, and that Germany with Belgium in her clutch would be a greater maritime Power, and more accessible to all the arguments, for- cible or friendly, which maritime nations employ. Coercion, of course, would be a different matter. The situation, if an in- tention to coerce were manifested, would be frightfully serious for Groat Britain ; but then it would be equally serious also be to abolish the veto by .which England now prevents a for the coercing Power, which would then be face to face with that spectre which has so long haunted Prince Bismarck, the armed coalition to restrain an overweening ambition. The object is not big enough for such a risk. By the way, if the Pall Mall Gazette really believes that Germany is going to produce a situation so dangerous, why does it want us to spend money and men in protecting Turkey ? Will the Sultan help to defend Antwerp, or is our contem- porary only longing for a good big war, anywhere and with anybody ?
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