The gene drain
SCIENCE PETER J. SMITH
Suddenly genes are news, though odious news to some it would appear. Lord Snow was quite in order to wonder publicly why Jewish achievement is disproportionately high; and to, ask, quite non-rhetorically, whether this has anything to do with genetic quality is a per- fectly legitimate question. The truth is that there is little evidence either way. No one knows the answer; and no one ever will if genetics is to be equated with racism and any reference to the possibility of genetic differ- ences with concentration camps. In confusing science with the vagaries of ideology Mr Short speaks the language of Chairman Mao, though he is somewhat less emulative in dealing with the other, politically less explosive, phe- nomenon to receive attention in recent weeks —the tendency of British genes to emigrate.
Few would pretend that the brain drain has made much impact upon the news charts of late. Yet the phenomenon not only continues unabated but is, if anything, on the increase. Only last month Dr F. E. Jones, chairman of the committee which investigated the causes of the drain some time ago, uttered the most recent dreaded figures. ,Taking qualified engineers as an example, over 50 per' cent of those gradu- ating during 1967.1eft these shores compared to 42 per cent the previous year. True, the .1968 and 1969 figures are likely to be somewhat lower than this; but if so, thanks will be due entirely to the recently amended United States immigration laws which, for the first time in history, are no longer in terms of national quotas. The bias in favour of the British has been removed, though it is hard to imagine that the respite will be anything but temporary.
And who can wonder at the continued drain? Since the original Jones Report was published precisely nothing has been done to reduce, let alone eradicate, the flow. On the contrary, in at least one respect—the financial—positive en- couragement to emigrate has been forthcoming, partly through the general economic situation and partly through the specific circumstance of the PIB report on university salaries. Aggrava- tion of the brain drain as a result is probably too obvious a consequence to make it news- worthy. Short of a viable solution, there is nothing new to say.
Or is there? We are indebted to Professor Richard Lynn of Dublin's Economic and Social Research Institute for considering the effects of the brain drain in an original, if disturbing, light which over the long term may prove to be the most important of all. In a nutshell, Professor Lynn's concern is that the continued migration of large numbers of highly intelligent poeple will bring about a significant deterioration in the genetic quality of the remaining population. The theoretical basis for this concern is per- fectly simple. Psychologists are generally agreed that intelligence is primarily hereditary, evidence for which comes mainly from studies of identical twins reared apart: irrespective of environment there is a remarkable similarity of IQ in members of each pair. In so far as environs mental factors play any part, the effect is merely to reinforce the effects of inheritance, for the more intelligent the parents the greater likeli- hood of the domestic environment's being con- ducive to the development of intelligence. The long and short of it is that intelligent parents tend to produce intelligent children who also possess greater educational opportunities.
This being the case, the emigration of highly intelligent people has repercussions throughout future generations. All emigrants do not possess above-average IQS, of course; but the fact that the brain drain is generally singled out for spe- cial concern emphasises the fact that the pro- portion of the emigrant population having higher than average intelligence tends to be unrepresentative of the population as a whole.
During 1967, for example, of the 74,000 emi- grants (breadwinners only) from Britain to the us, Canada and Australia, about 21,000, or over 30 per cent, were described as 'profes- sional' or 'managerial.' Each of these classes possesses an average IQ of over 130. To put the situation in another way, at least 24 per cent of the emigrants held university degrees as com- pared to 6 per cent of the remaining population.
Nor is that all. Consider the following. Even if, in an extreme case, all persons within a given generation having an IQ of 120 or over were to emigrate, the following generation would not be completely bereft of able people because some of those parents remaining would produce children of IQ over 120. How- ever, almost all of these children would issue from parents having IQS in the range 100 to 120—and this group, too, is disproportionately represented in the emigrant population. Which- ever way you look at it, emigration is slowly reducing Britain's average IQ.
Of course, no amount of arithmetic will enable us to predict the precise long-term effect —and no doubt individual psychologists and geneticists would disagree amongst themselves on the outcome. The only recourse is to prece- dent, though not even that is completely satis- factory if only because the current wave of emigration is unprecedented in scale. Nor are well-documented precedents easy to come by, though Professor Lynn can cite a few. Take, for example, Constantinople, whose sack in 1453 caused a mass westward migration of scholars to the great benefit of western Europe but to the irreparable detriment of Constanti- nople itself. Or, to come more up-to-date, con- sider the intellectual migration from Germany during the 1930s which, among other things, severely harmed German scientific achievement. The best example is even closer to home; pause to ponder for a while the case of Scot- land. During the eighteenth century Scotland achieved great prominence in business and learning, and in the wider cultural sense. Since that time the achievements of the Scots on their home ground have been in continuous decline as the currently depressed state of Scotland testi- fies. The obvious .explanation of this pheno- menon lies in the migration to England and elsewhere of a disproportionate number of the most able Scotsmen. It does not follow that the average IQ of Scotsmen has decreased; but the average IQ of Scotsmen remaining in Scot- land clearly has. In the Western Isles, for ex- ample, the mean to is only 85.
This is no slight on the Scots. Scotland is proud, and rightly so, of its citizens who have made it in other worlds. Which suggests a parallel for the future: who knows but that the English might ultimately come to sing the praises of their brain drainers who have had the initiative to follow opportunity wherever it has led? Sentimentality apart, perhaps the brain drain is simply a monument to our con- tinued vitality as a race. But what's good for the British is not necessarily good for Britain.
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