The Democrats' Choice
By ROY JENKINS, MI' THE atmosphere in the American Democratic Party, as the beginning of election year approaches, is hardly one of overweening confi- dence. No one doubts that they will maintain control of Congress, but their chances of the Presidency look far more uncertain. Many to whom, a year ago, the thought of a Nixon victory was unthinkable now talk gloomily about the election-winning capacity of 'summitry' and the fear that the intransigence towards the Russians, in which Mr. Truman and Mr. Acheson are cur- rently taking much pride, may cost the Democrats many votes.
Few prominent Democrats are sympathetic towards this Truman-Acheson line, although the others tolerantly explain it away by saying that it is natural for Acheson at least, in view of the way he was then treated, to spend the rest of hig life fighting the battles of 1950-52; and Truman has a popularity independent of anything he says and much greater than his present influence. But all the possible contenders for the Democratic nom- ination are at least united in a desire not to lose the 'survival' vote. It is had enough, they feel, to have had Dulles removed from the scene; and for this change to have been accompanied by Acheson lecturing everyone upon the evils of negotiation really is too much.
The Democratic contenders are also now united in being all well behind Vice-President Nixon in the popularity polls. In a sense the issue is weighted against them for they are merely hypothetical candidates, while Nixon clearly has * Mr. Jenkins has recently returned from a visit to the US. the Republican nomination within his grasp. But there is little enough indication that the fog now surrounding the Democratic choice will disperse before their Convention in July; and this will give the Republicans another seven months in which to consolidate their lead.
For the moment, indeed, the fog seems to have intensified. Since the Roman Catholic bishops precipitated the birth control issue into the centre of politics, with gravely damaging effects upon the prospects of Senator Kennedy, there is not even a clearly discernible 'front runner.' Why the bishops did it is by no means easy to fathom. Their statement was quite gratuitous; and as they are not normally a notably naïve body of men, it is impossible to believe that they did not realise it would force Kennedy into an uncomfortable cor- ner. Is the explanation that they do not want a Roman Catholic President at this juncture, or at least that they would rather not have one at all than have the junior Senator from Massachu- settes? Or should we explore the more subtle explanation that, fearing a Nixon victory, they decided it was better not to have a Catholic candidate than to risk a repetition of the Al Smith 1928 result?
Whatever the reason the blow to Kennedy was undoubtedly a severe one, the more so because it was delivered at a moment when, although he was still in the lead, his impetus was already show- ing some signs of exhausting itself. As a result, it now seems unlikely that he can be first on the ticket. But he would be precluded from the Vice- Presidential nomination by nothing more sub- stantial than his own statement that he will not take it. Indeed, it seems possible that the main long-term effect of the Kennedy intervention will be to make it difficult for the Democrats ever again to run without one Roman Catholic name on the ticket. So perhaps the bishops have not been so foolish after all.
But if Senator Kennedy's name is to be second, whose is to be first? Senator Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota is the most liberal and (despite his inability to stop talking) probably the most able of the contenders. He has the distinction (unique amongst possible Democrats and shared only with Mr. Nixon amongst the candidates on either side) of not being a millionaire. But he is barely pos- sible. Some people blame Mr. Stevenson for Mr. Humphrey's campaign not having 'got off the ground.' If only Adlai had been firm about not running, they say, Humphrey would immediately have looked a serious candidate. But Adlai has not been firm and Humphrey remains serious only in a subjective sense.
Is Mr. Stevenson's lack of firmness to be attributed merely to the endemic indecisiveness of which his enemies accuse him, or to the fact that he is waiting to see whether the prospects for Democratic success make it worthwhile for him to emerge again as a candidate? This latter attitude would not lay him open to the charge of being a fair-weather campaigner. No one in their right mind could expect him to be attracted by another losing battle. But if the omens improve considerably before July it seems highly likely that Mr. Stevenson will both want the nomination and bc able to obtain it. It is ironical that Steven- son, /whose political career began when he was given the nomination for the Illinois governor- ship by a group of men who did not particularly like him but were attracted by his vote-gaining capacity, should now be surrounded by adulatory supporters whose minds are racked by doubts as to whether he can ever win.
If the Democratic prospects do not improve and Mr. Stevenson remains in the wings, who will then be the candidate? My guess would be Senator Symington of Missouri. He is certainly Truman's candidate and he may well attract a good deal of Northern liberal support in addition to being acceptable to the South. At the moment he is assiduously wooing the Northern liberals and is backed in his task by an almost impeccably pro- gressive voting record in the Senate. It is so impeccable that a lot of people feel there must be something wrong with it; but they cannot quite decide what.
If there is to be a compromise candidate, there- fore, Senator Symington looks• very likely. But what cannot be excluded is the faint possibility that some new man,,as yet hardly heard of, might conceivably emerge and run away from the field. Where he could come from one cannot see, but the Democrats are in a mood in which they would readily respond to a fresh and firm lead, if only it were forthcoming. And then Mr. Nixon might again begin to feel very worried.
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