POLITICS

Mandelson has no grip, except on that hatchet aimed at peace subtitled the Patten Report

BRUCE ANDERSON

When John Major set the Ulster peace process in motion, he reckoned that the odds on it succeeding were 4-1 against: a charac- teristically cautious assessment. At various stages since then, it came to seem unneces- sarily pessimistic, but that is no longer true. The situation has never seemed more gloomy. I have had two similar conversations in the past few days, one with Paul Bew, the wisest of all observers of the Province's poli- tics, the other with a helpfully minded senior Irish diplomat. Both men made the same point. There had been plenty of bad moments since 1993, they said, but this was different. In the past, and however much it was beset by obstacles, there had always been a way forward. They no longer saw that way. Both men remain passionately committed to the peace process, and to hope. At present, neither can find a rational basis for hope.

A vast enterprise of effort has been devot- ed to the process, yet it could all have gone for nothing. This was not inevitable; that pro- cess was not foredoomed. If it fails, it will do so because senior politicians have shown a frivolous disregard for their responsibilities.

One examines the events of the past few months and the government's response. One searches in vain for a strategy. Take the Pat- ten Report. There should be no need to return to that fricassee of dead dog, except that it is still alive, rabid and lethal. Holding one's revulsion in check and taking that report on its own terms, it makes an assump- tion and sets out a linked objective. The assumption is that it will soon be possible to restructure the RUC as a conventional police force; the objective, to ensure a much greater recruitment of Catholics.

There is nothing undesirable in any of that; on the contrary, everyone would like to see normality prevail in Ulster, and it would be splendid if religion were as irrelevant to police recruiting there as in the rest of the UK. But that normality depends on a stable peace, in which the political institutions envisaged by the Good Friday Agreement can work effectively. As Good Friday acknowledged, peace is inextricably linked to the decommissioning of the IRA's weaponry. There is no sign that this is going to happen.

So the Patten Report's basic assumption collapses. In security matters, it is only com- mon sense to take a worst-case analysis. It is much easier for the forces of order to relax their vigilance if matters are turning out bet- ter than expected than it is to scramble to regain lost ground if everything goes wrong. Yet the Patten proposals would undermine the RUC's operational effectiveness, and Mr Mandelson seems determined to implement them irrespective of the security conditions in Ulster, which are the principal factor pre- venting Catholics from joining the RUC.

Patten and Sinn Fein excepted, it is almost universally agreed that the main barrier to Catholic recruitment is intercommunal ten- sion. That is now had and increasing, partly because of Unionist anger over Patten. This also threatens David Trimble's position.

Saturday's revolt was a blow to Mr Trim- ble, especially as Martin Smyth, though a decent man, is hardly serious leadership material: more an Orange version of Frank Dobson. Admittedly, some Unionists voted for Mr Smyth on the assumption that he would not win; they wanted to send a warn- ing to David Trimble and to London. But if the situation continues to deteriorate, Mr Trimble might not survive. He could even be deselected in his Westminster constituency.

Indeed — a grim paradox — his leadership is now sustained more by fear than by hope. Some people who used to support him because they believed in the Good Friday process, but who have now lost that faith, still back Mr Trimble because they think that Ulster might be about to slide back into strife. In such desperate circumstances, they argue, Unionists would need a strong leader with international stature, and David Trim- ble is the only such candidate.

But the British government would still like to see Mr Trimble's leadership in more opti- mistic terms, with him able to act as the spokesman of constructive Unionism. So why does it do nothing to help him? His only objection to the motion binding him to oppose the Patten proposals was tactical. When it was passed, against his advice, his response was immediate: he moved that it should now be carried unanimously.

There is an overwhelming argument for adding a delaying mechanism to the Patten proposals, so that they do not take effect until decommissioning has happened and the Executive is in place. At moments, Peter Mandelson has come close to accepting that point and to acknowledging the Patten Report's weaknesses. He has told senior Unionists that he would like to make conces- sions to them, but that Tony Blair is blocking him. The Unionists are not sure whether they believe Mr Mandelson, but whether he is telling the truth or not, they are inclined to despise him for his vacillation. As one said: 'I could never get on with Paddy Mayhew, but can you ever imagine him coming to us and saying: "Oh, I'd like to help you, but Down- ing Street won't let me." It's pathetic.'

In his Northern Ireland days, Patrick May- hew insisted that the first attribute an Ulster Secretary needs is infinite patience. Yet after only five months in the Province, Peter Man- delson has announced that he is running out of patience. That impressed nobody. Foot- stamping petulance has no place in Ulster politics, nor should truckling to Dublin.

Currently, Dublin is being profoundly unhelpful. The Irish foreign ministry is telling journalists that it now regards David Trimble as expendable, and that London agrees. Again, the Unionists are not sure what to believe, but they are inflamed. Not that `13ifo' cares. Bifo is the universal nickname for Brian Cowan, the Irish Foreign Minister. It stands for Big Ignorant F****r from Offaly. Strongly anti-Unionist, Mr Cowan is a pretty basic character, with few moving parts or sensitivities. But that has not prevented him from establishing a psychological ascendancy over Peter Mandelson.

In February, when he suspended the Exec- utive, Mr Mandelson took the only course open to him. But he was criticised by Dublin and Washington, and seems to have lost his nerve. Far from priding himself on showing strength and being right, he has rushed around trying to appease his critics, and especially Bifo: hence, inter alia, the 'chinless wonders' comment on Irish radio. But Bifo is a simple operator. If he encounters strength he might show grudging respect; faced by weakness, he will push and go on pushing. A minister who will not stand up to Bifo is not worth his pay and rations, but Mr Mandelson has no grip, except on that hatchet aimed at peace and subtitled the Patten Report.

It is ironic that Peter Mandelson should now be allied to Chris Patten. Back in 1992, when he was spinning for Labour while Mr Patten was Tory Chairman, Peter Mandelson referred to him as 'Fatty Patty'. Mr Patten was irritated — unwelcome truths always sting — but I suggested that he retaliate by dubbing his foe 'Mincing Mandy'. He did not do so, or at least not in public, but he would regularly inquire what Mincing was up to.

These days, alas, the Mincing Wonder is not just spinning for Labour. He is helping to spin Ulster towards chaos and despair.