PRINCE FERDINAND IN BULGARIA.
WHAT is the explanation of Prince Ferdinand's sudden acceptance of the throne of Bulgaria, after so much caution and apparent hesitation ? Has he a secret understanding with Russia ? That was the first impression, and there was much to support it. After some contemptuous and cynical criticism on his candidature, the Russian Press for a time adopted a less hostile and almost neutral attitude. It is said that persons of high rank and influence at the Russian Court, discovering that England and Austria looked coldly on Prince Ferdinand, persuaded the Czar to make no opposition to his election ; and the Prince himself evidently hoped at firetto win the acquiescence, if not the formal sanction, of the Russian Government. It might have suited the policy of Russia to let the Prince understand, without committing herself, that her opposi- tion to his adventure would not go beyond a diplomatic protest. If the other Powers did not intervene, a fundamental portion of the Berlin Treaty would be silently abrogated. This fact alone would be a great gain to Russia, for it would create a precedent that would enable her to emancipate herself from the obligations of the Treaty altogether whenever events made it convenient for her to do so. Nor would this be the only advantage. So long as the door was left open for the return of so capable and popular a leader as Prince Alexander, a serious obstacle lay athwart the designs of Russia. That door would be closed by the advent of Prince Ferdinand in Bulgaria. On the other hand, the partisans of Prince Alexander might be utilised by Russia in case she found it necessary to intrigue against his successor. But Ferdinand, taking warning from the fate of his predecessor, might deem it prudent to come to an understanding with the Czar, and take his orders from St. Petersburg. That there was some hope of this in Russian circles is manifest from the significant passage in which the Metropolitan Clement welcomed Ferdinand ostenta- tiously, on condition of his submission to Russia. In any case, therefore, Ferdinand might seem to be a good card to play. As a tool of Russia, Prince Ferdinand might save the Czar any further trouble, and settle the Bulgarian difficulty in the interest of Russian policy. Should he, on the other hand, endeavour to keep Russia at a distance, it would apparently be easy to get rid of him without a second resort to the device of kidnapping. It may well be, therefore, that Ferdinand went to Bulgaria with the passive assent of Russia. His enterprise, whatever its issue, appeared to favour her policy.
If these were the calculations of Russia, Prince Ferdinand has by a bold stroke rudely upset them. Russia is plainly alarmed by the turn which events have taken. Prince Ferdinand's proclamation of a " free and independent Bulgaria" is doubtless capable of more than one interpre- tation, and one of his Ministers has hastened to explain that it only means "independence of. Russia." That explanation, however reassuring to the Porte, is certain to add fuel to the flame of Russian indignation. Nor is the Porte likely to. take the explanation seriously. The proclamation is evidently meant to pave the way for the assertion of complete Bulgarian inde- pendence. The phrase which has excited so much curiosity and attention is not isolated. The Prince claims the throne of the Bulgarian Czars " not as a vassal, nor yet as the nominee of the Powers or the ward of a treaty, but as a Sovereign," by the grace of God and the will of the people." And he signs
his name as the first of a dynasty, "Ferdinand L" So far, it looks as if Prince Ferdinand had more stuff in him than any- body gave him credit for. If the well-informed Vienna corre- spondent of the Daily Telegraph may be trusted, Prince Ferdinand has gone to Bulgaria with the mature and deliberate resolve of playing a great game. He means, it seems, to win or lose no mere vassal Principality, but a throne for which a man of bold genius might carve out a splendid future. "The Bulgarian Czars " were great Sovereigns, and the claimant to this throne promises Bulgaria a heritage vastly wider than the frontiers of the existing Principality. It is a great ambition. Is Ferdinand equal to the task of realising it I It is too early to offer an opinion. But two things are plain. Ferdinand has a reserve of force of which nobody suspected him ; and he believes in himself. His audacity seems to have won the hearts and imaginations of the Bulgarians. By a single stroke he has enlisted their national pride and hopes under his banner ; and if he shows himself a brave and skilful soldier, he may yet play a great part in the politica of Europe. What are the chances of his bold venture I Will Russian opposition pass the bounds of diplomacy ? That is hardly likely, at least for the present. So long as peace and order prevail in Bulgaria, Russia can scarcely venture to defy the public opinion of Europe by invading the Principality. Bulgaria does not stand alone. She can only be invaded through Roumania ; and Roumania has offered Prince Ferdinand a benevolent neutrality. Austria would also have to be squared before Russia could safely occupy Bulgaria ; and Austria is by no means ready for an advance on Salonica. Besides, if she should ever move in that direction, she will prefer to do it without so dangerous a neighbour as Russia on her flank. What we expect, therefore, is that Russia will follow up her protest against the enterprise of Prince Ferdinand by openly liberating herself from the obliga- tions of the Treaty of Berlin, and claiming her liberty of action in the affairs of South-Eastern Europe. The most important factor in the situation next to Russia is the Porte. How will the Sultan regard the proclamation of Prince Ferdinand So far, it does not seem to have alarmed him. Riza Bey was careful to explain, in leaving Bulgaria, that his recall indicated no unfriendliness on the part of the Sultan • and the appoint- ment of Artin Bey to succeed him, whether he goes to Bulgaria or not, is a friendly act. If the Sultan were wise, his true policy would obviously be to come to terms with Prince Ferdinand ; for an independent Bulgaria would be his best rampart against Russian aggression. The Porte, it is true, like all Mussulman Governments, never relinquishes territory except under stress of superior force. But the Sultan can hardly regard Bulgaria as Massulman territory ; and the Porte has never offered much opposition to the formal independence of liberated territories which were already practically free. The Princes of Roumania and Servia proclaimed their independence without any violent opposition on the part of the Sultan. The probability, therefore, is that the Porte will do nothing ; and Russia can hardly move while the Suzerain Power remains quiescent. Austria will certainly not take the lead against Prince Ferdinand ; the menace to her interests is too remote to tempt so cautions a Government into a policy of perilous adventure. Nor is Servia likely to have forgotten the lesson taught her by Bulgaria, and it is more than probable that she will come to terms with Prince Ferdinand. Greece is sure to resent the claim to the throne of the Bulgarian Czars ; but her resentment will not disturb Prince Ferdinand.
We believe that a great deal too much has been made of the angry article in the North-German Gazette. Prince Ferdi- nand's proclamation was certain to disgust and irritate Prince Bismarck. He is a firm believer in the divine right of Kings and the validity of conquests by the sword. But to claim a throne "by the will of the people" must have seemed to him an atrocious political heresy. Besides, Bismarck's chief aim for some time past has been to prevent a great war. He knows that a great war would be fatal to the Emperor, and the death of the Emperor might possibly put an end to the predomi-
nance of the Chancellor. Personally, perhaps, Bismarck would not object to retirement from public life. But he knows that German unity is by no means free from danger, and his ardent wish, therefore, is to avert anything that would shorten the Emperor's life. The reproach against Bulgaria, however, as a disturber of the peace of Europe, is grossly unjust. The people of Bulgaria have been in vain imploring the Great Powers for three years to settle the Bulgarian Question ; and having during that interval maintained peace and order in the Principality, they have now surely a right to act for themselves. If their new Prince is a man capable of tieing to the height of his opportunity, and of inspiring and holding the loyalty of his subjects, his acceptance of the throne of Bulgaria may yet prove to be an epoch in European history.
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