BUSINESS IN 1929.
Contrary to some expectations, so far 1929 has been a record year in many respects for American business. The Department of Commerce returns show exports for the six months to June 30th valued at $2,627,142,000, or *249,133,000 more than in the corresponding period of 1928. Imports have increased by 8199,013,000 to a total of $2,284,945,000, the increase being partly attributable to the anticipation of an increased tariff. Both the Department of Commerce and the Treasury expect American foreign trade to exceed a total of $10,000,000,000 this year, or nearly $1,000,000,000 above last year's transactions. The advance in exports is expected to bring the trade balance in favour of the United States to over $1,000,000,000 for the current year. The one unfavourable factor in the home position is the decline of 10 to 20 per cent. in current building construction due to the scarcity of mortgage money. Basing their calcula- tions on previous cycles a number of authorities see in this an indication of a recession in the boom early in 1930. Mean- time, however, with industry generally at the peak and the President firmly adhering to his decision to keep his first Budget within the total of the last Coolidge Budget, further reduction of Federal taxation is possible.
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