TOPICS OF THE DAY.
THE POSITION OF THE GOVERNMENT.
THE crushing defeat of the Government candidate in the Rye division, following as it does on the Woolwich defeat, and on the great loss of Unionist votes in other constituencies—for example, Sevenoaks and North Leeds—must be admitted to have a very ugly significance for the. Administration. Particular reasons given for the loss of popularity by the Government may be sound or unsound, but the fact remains that the inevitable swing of the pendulum—arrested first by the clinging of the Liberals to the lost cause of Home-rule, then by the war, and finally by the internecine quarrels in the Liberal party and their inability to agree upon a leader—has begun to take full effect. The country always desires a change after one side has been in office for five or six years. Hitherto it has not been able to indulge in the luxury of dismissing its servants owing to anxiety on the points we have just named. At last, however, it has come, rightly or wrongly, to think that these objections have disappeared, and it is now eager for the excitement of a change that has been so long postponed. This, far more than any violent dislike of particular men or particular measures, is the reason for the position in which the Cabinet find themselves whenever a by-election now takes place. We do not, of course, deny that the Government have made many blunders, and shaken the loyalty of many of.their supporters by such culpable acts of political negli- gence and stupidity as the Venezuelan imbroglio. But these might have been forgotten or forgiven, and the Govern- ment might have been able to put themselves right even in. regard to their military policy. What they cannot do is to arrest the desire that the other side should have a turn which has taken hold of a considerable portion of every section of the community. Against that no amount of pulling themselves together or of successful coups, either at home or abroad, will prevail.
But though we hold that it would be foolish not to recognise the significance of the by-elections—it is as sound a rule in public as in private- life to look a disagreeable situation straight in the face—it must not be supposed that the by-elections and the signs of unpopularity in the country in any way place'the Government in a position of immediate danger. On the contrary, they rather strengthen them, for they make every Unionist Member dread a Dissolu- tion, and the first result of a defeat of the Government Must be a Dissolution. People may gossip about the Government being reconstructed after a defeat, and going on for another three or four years, but that is most un likely. In recent years defeat has always meant Dissolu- tion, and it almost certainly would' in the present case. But no member of the Unionist party, however much he may dislike or disagree with the present Government, wants a Dissolution. It means, to begin with, in most cases a great deal of trouble and worry, and a certain expendi- ture of between £700 and £1,000. Next, it may very likely mean the loss of his seat. The fact that a Unionist Member has attacked the Government will not help him in the least in his constituency. Naturally enough, the other side, and the man who wants his seat, will have no mercy on him on this account. Those who help to pull down a-Ministry of their own political colour will receive no quarter at a General Election. But these facts being known to all Unionist Members of Parliament, it is absurd to imagine, as we see it has been very frequently asserted in the Press, that the by-elections mark the end of the Ministry. They show, no doubt, what will happen at the next General Election, but their first effect must be, as we have said, to produce a Unionist concentration. All the Members who dread a General Election will rally to the support of the Government in order to avoid a Dissolution. Possibly this may not affect the one or two men who really hate the 'Ministry or the young free-lances who desire to win fame by spilling the political blood of Cabinet Ministers ; but the bulk of the Unionist Members it will affect very much, and they will certainly act on the instinct of self- preservation. Of course. in spite of this, one of those sudden chances which come to the aid of Oppositions may some evening upset the Government coach ; but if sucli accident occurs, it will be notwithstanding the defeats at Woolwich and Rye, and not because of them. But it may be said—Will not the Ministry, shaken by blows from outside, finally collapse from internal convul- sions ? Those who ask such a question always proceed to point out that Mr. Chamberlain does not share the un- popularity of his colleagues, and then to suggest that he will avail himself of the present situation to claim tho Premiership for himself. In our view, that allegation is as untrue as it is unjust. In a word, it is founded on the newspaper Mr. Chamberlain, and not on the real Mr. Chamberlain. The newspaper gossips have imagined a Mr. Chamberlain who is utterly egotistical, who plays only for his own hand, and who does not know what loyalty to his colleagues means. But the real Mr. Chamberlain is a very different person, and may be depended on to act with honour and good faith towards his colleagues. The notion of his undermining them and playing a double game with a friend like Mr. Arthur Balfour is simply unthinkable, and shows an amazing ignorance of the man in those who enter- tain it. No doubt Mr. Chamberlain is, as he has every right to be, very ambitious, and supposing that he were free, would very likely do his best to obtain the Premiership, like every other politician before him. But between this and sacrificing his colleagues to raise himself there is an infinity of difference. We may be sure that Mr. Chamberlain will not sacrifice his honour to gain the Premiership. If he gains it, it will be by honest means, and not by a dishonourable intrigue.
It is natural while discussing the position of the Govern- ment, and the condition of deadly, though not galloping, consumption in which they find themselves, to ask whether any means exist by which they could gain strength and improve their prospects. Even if nothing can make a permanent cure, is there anything which can arrest the disease from which ithey suffer ? We believe there is, though we confess that we think it unlikely that they will have the energy or the courage to adopt our prescription. In our view, the case is one for bold measures. We would take a, course from which they have hitherto shrunk, but which is nevertheless of the first moment, and would do a great deal to restore the confidence of convinced Unionists throughout the country. In our opinion, the Cabinet should introduce legislation to do away with the anomalies and the injustice of our present electoral system, and to remedy the monstrous over-representation of Ireland and under- representation of England ; and while doing so they should also create* machinery which would automatically readjust the electoral balance after every Census. No doubt the introduction of such a measure would be hotly opposed by the Irish, and very possibly also by the Liberals ; but the intensity of the Irish opposition would have a bracing effect on the Unionist party. What is wanted to restore its vigour is a clean and straight- forward Unionist issue, and this would be obtained by tho refusal to tolerate any longer the over-representation of Ireland and the under-representation of England. If the Liberals strongly opposed such a measure, they would risk losing popularity, for the issue of electoral justice is one which the country understands. Nothing, indeed, would be better for the Government than to go to the country on this question. A Dissolution on the ground that the Opposition were obstructing and refusing to allow the passage of a Redistribution. Bill doing justice to England would give the - Government their very best chance. If, on the other hand, the Liberals allowed the Bill to pass, the Government might well claim the gratitude of all Unionists for having put the Union out of danger. When once Ireland has no more than her fair share of votes the possibility of destroying the Union practically disappears. But though we feel that a bold course of this nature is the one which the Government should adopt, and adopt without delay— they need not actually introduce a Bill this Session, but they might pass a series of Resolutions this summer laying down the foundations of a Bill, and introduce the Bill itself early next year—we must confess that we do not think it very likely that they will have the energy to do so. " Boldness, boldness, and again boldness'.' is the greatest of political mottoes, but we fear it is not that of the present Administration.
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