the world as that of any of the four or
five States which are at once formidable for their resources, and inclined to use them in a militant, we do not say an aggressive, way. For the true meaning of the change we must wait ; but we must all be conscious that a great change has occurred, and be strongly tempted to speculate, perhaps a little wildly, as to its ultimate effect. We shall avoid that temptation as inopportune ; but the event is so amazing that we think it interesting to con- sider for a moment whether there is any chance that it could, within any reasonable distance of time, be repeated, —that is, any chance that another Power as strong as Japan could. be added suddenly to the great Council of the. world.
No one can foretell anything, even for a day, with any approach to certainty; but reckoning as politiciang reckon, we should say it was most improbable. Such a State must possess the necessary force, and either be actuated by high ambitions, or be so placed as to feel a necessity for warning the world that it is beyond attack. The people of. the American Union have, no doubt, the necessary strength, and might by possibility be stricken by that desire of hegemony which, of all passions, seems most strongly to influence ambitious statesmen. We should, indeed, venture to predict that they will feel it one day ; but at present they are too content, too entirely free from any dread of attack, and, if we may use the word without appearing to depreciate them, are too entirely self- absorbed, to adopt a Weltpolitik as a stimulus to novel action. The people of the European Continent are, we see, inclined to fancy that Americans already feel impulses in that direction ; but we suspect that annoyance at an unexpected " intrusion " rather impairs their judgment. Americans have still to put their own house straight by solving within their own borders some very perplexing economic and political problems. It is not until they have reconciled Labour and Capital, and concentrated power more completely in Washington, that they will have leisure to make themselves felt in the general affairs of the planet. Another force exists in a fluid condition which may suddenly solidify and develop itself to the surprise of mankind. The States of Spanish America have recently displayed the beginning of a desire to federate themselves for external purposes ; and if that desire came to anything, they could no doubt form a very powerful State. They have the wealth, if they choose to use it, to build and maintain a first-class fleet, and to oraanisea great artillery; while they possess resources in the way of fighting men which Europeans, who do not study their history, hardly yet appreciate. The dominant caste of Spanish America is a fighting caste, trained by a century of civil war, and at least half the subordinate classes consist of men -who, though not of our colour, when the impulse seizes them, know how to die.. They will scarcely, however, form a great State in our time. Their leaders are too jealous ; their territories are so extensive that they cannot feel land-hunger ; and unless provoked beyond bearing by threats of conquest from races whose creeds and aspirations are different from their own, they have little motive for, an exertion which at first could bring them little reward, except the pride of a new place in the estimation of mankind. Of the older. peoples, only one, about which we shall have something to say directly, is at all likely to appear in a new attitude. The tribes of Tartary, in its broadest geographical sense, might, if they were suddenly moved to action, renew their old cohesion, and shake existing arrangements in India, Persia, Turkey, and even Russia ; but brave as they are, and numerous as they are, they are after all only cavalry, have no means of building or using a, fleet, and in any great contest would be crushed by the possessors of modern artillery. A new Ghenghis Khan would in his first great battle be shelled out of repute with his own people, and would be as incapable of great victories as of taking mighty fortresses. We may leave him, we think, out of calculation. The Arabs are possibly: more formidable. They are fourteen millions of brave involuntary ascetics. Their creed teaches that conquest is good; their history tells them that, outside Europe, they can always 'conquer; and they have a motive—their righteous claim to the Caliphate—for attempting conquest. A second outpour- ing from Arabia directed to the conquest of Turkey, Egypt, and Northern Africa is well within the limits of. possibility, and would, if the tribesmen succeeded, introduce into international politics an entirely new factor. They could hardly, however, succeed as the Japanese have succeeded. They are not, it is true, mere destroyers like the Turks. They can build great cities, learn almost anything they care to learn, and in fact make a civilisation. But they have no wealth. They can hardly face modern Europe in the field, and they show no trace of the ability to develop their old capacity for maritime warfare so as to become, like the Japanese, great upon the ocean. There is nothing, again, in Eastern Europe which suggests that its numerous STatcs have any power of cohesion. Italy will hardly resume the career in which "the sound of her step was as fate to the foeman." And though the Spaniards are splendid flghters, still, them is some dry-rot in the social organi- sation of Spain which prevents great and successful effort.
We can see no source from which a new and great Power can arise, unless, indeed, it should be China ; and the conditions prevalent in that vast Empire, though they attract the imagination, baffle political thought. China certainly possesses the necessary force. Her people are the most numerous in the world, and probably half her children, once trained, would die calmly under orders on the field. There is a conflict of evidence as to their :willingness to be drilled by Japanese ; but observers who have lived among them for years affirm that they have an admiration for their cousins, and that the desire to acquire the knowledge of the West is spreading through the large class of whom we hear only as unsuccessful reforwers. .They have the wealth to purchase and to maintain a great fleet, and they ought, like the Japanese, to be most successful artillerists. They are, it must be remembered, a most vain people. They consider themselves, with some justice, oppressed by Europeans ; and if they find a great leader, or, like the Japanese, a class of competent leaders, they may with startling suddenness claim to be one of the Great Powers, and justify their claim by battle. Such an uprising is, they themselves say, improbable, for in theory the Chinese repudiate war, and despise the military character; but for ourselves we have little belief, in the dominance of abstract ideas of that kind. The Chinese do not maintain the superiority of the doctrines of peace .more eagerly or more universally than Christians do, and Christians have been at war ever since Constantine made their creed official. The rise of Chma is only a possibility to be reckoned with ; but still, the battle of Mukden has enlarged the ideas of politicians as to the area of possi- bilities, and the most formidable among them is the success of the Chinese in organising the Army, upon which their great Mandarins are now intent. We do not see anywhere else force sufficient for the development of a new Japan; but we do see it there, and it is worth while, in the week when Russia and Japan, in the Mikado's phrase, have "again become friends," to note as a matter of record the fact which hereafter may be quoted by historians as of world-wide interest.
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